Thursday, October 29, 2026

The World Series exposed...the Yankees.

Congratulations to the Milwaukee Brewers— 

(Even if their longtime owner did manage to wreck the 1994 season, turn a blind eye to a generation of juicing, and stand there hopelessly unable to determine how to break a tie in the All-Star Game, in his wholly compromised role as commissioner. This Bud IS you, Mr. Selig.)—

—though reportedly, the Brewers' fine manager, Pat Murphy, asked Jake Bauers, the surprise hero of the postseason, if he wasn't glad he was no longer with that "selfish" Yankees team that played the game the wrong way.

This quote sounds so bizarre that I question its veracity. Among other things, Mr. Bauers stunk up the joint as a Yankee, a Mariner, an Indian, and a Ray, before turning in a .199 first year in Milwaukee.  

The shock is not that Brian Cashman let him go, but that he didn't throw $22 million at him. 

Well, good for Jake Bauers. And good for Pat Murphy. The both deserve their rings. But here are 10(?) observations on how it was the Yankees who were really exposed by this World Series.

—After an ALDS in which they kept the Yanks from so much as taking a lead for one inning, much less winning a game, the TB Rays had to grind out an ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians of Traffic, then were steamrolled by the Brewers. 

—In the Series, the Rays hit .182 with 1 home run and only 5 stolen bases in 9 attempts, and committed 3 errors. They played poorly in every aspect of the game. Their starting pitchers lasted a combined 21 1/3 innings, or fewer than 5 per start, and surrendered 13 earned runs in that time.

—There was no reason to think they would do much better. While the Rays had the best record in the American League, they were only third in total WAR, at 7.9, behind both the Red Sox (14.6) and your New York Yankees (13.8).  

—At no position, save for José Caminero at third, did the Rays field the best player at that position. In fact, save for RF, where they were second, no Ray ranked no higher than fifth in the league at any position.

—The greatest disparity between the Rays and the Yankees came in pitching, which is almost always the difference in baseball. The Yanks, boasting their best starting pitching in 25 years, and what rounded into a highly effective bullpen, were at 13.4 in pitching WAR. The Rays were merely 7th in the AL, at 1.9.

—In other words, with pitching ranked almost TEN TIMES better than Tampa Bay's, the Yankees could not get closer than within 4 1/2 games of the Rays over the regular season, or snag so much as a lead during their playoff series. I don't know if this has ever happened before in the history of baseball, but I would bet that it has not. 

—For all the talk about "selfishness" in the Yankees' clubhouse, or Cashman's magical ability to deflect the fault to Aaron Judge—"He said nice things about Verdugo!"...Tampa Bay did not display any great advantage over the Yanks in almost any statistical category, throughout the season.

—In team fielding, the Rays fielded .984, the Yanks, .983. Tampa Bay made 4 fewer errors—the Yankees pulled off 23 more double-plays. 

—In team batting the Rays led with an OPS of .728 to .720, and an OPS+ of 103-101—hardly huge differences. The Yankees actually scored more runs, 739-736, and outhomered TB, 223-169. Tampa Bay had all of 11 more steals, 164-153.

—The one big statistical difference came in clutch hitting. TB outhit the Yanks, .258-.235. Also, the Yankees were second in the AL in most strikeouts, at 1,480 and last in total hits, with 1,250. Tampa Bay, by contrast, had the fewest strikeouts in the league, at 1,145, and led all American League teams with 1,405 hits.

—In other words, here is where Cashman's disastrous insistence on playing "Three True Outcomes" baseball came clearly into play. The Rays struck out 335 fewer times, and out of those 355 at-bats, slashed 155 more hits, for an average of .463 "non-strikeout hits." (Stat patent pending.)

—Throughout the World Series, the broadcasters (and everyone else) heaped praise upon the Brewers and Rays for playing baseball "like it should be played," and rightly so. 

But it's worth pointing out that the two teams in the Series just last fall—and what were obviously the two best teams in their respective leagues in 2025, the Blue Jays and the Dodgers—hit home runs by the bushelful, belting 191 and 244, respectively, during the regular season, and combining for another 19 during their seven-game set.

—In other words, there are many ways to play winning baseball. Brian Cashman is bad at all of them. 

—It's not just that the Yankees stick rigidly with "Three True Outcomes" ball. It's that they don't know how to play that, either.  

—The key to the Yanks' failure this postseason was that they had at least five players in their starting lineups—Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm, Anthony Volpe, and Trent Grisham—who had no business being there, after their repeated and abject failures all season, and in the recent past.

—Remarkably, three of those players—Jazz, Volpe, and Wells—had also made critical mistakes in the infamous, Fifth Inning Fiasco of the 2024 World Series. Two of them, along with McMahon and Grisham, were on the field to make equally disastrous flubs in the first inning of the critical, Game Two of the 2026 ALDS. 

—Even more incredibly, the Yanks managed to exhaust their pinch-runners by the end of the final game in that series, put a chronically injured player who had not batted since the end of April up in the two most crucial at-bats of the season, and ended it with Trent Grisham—a player not only injured but awful—up there for the last out, in a one-run game.

The only conclusion possible from all this is that the Yankees—despite one of the greatest advantages in pitching ever seen in their league playoffs—did not even get to the ALCS not because their players were "selfish," or their clubhouse atmosphere was bad, or Aaron Judge said nice things about his teammates, or even because of the general incompetence of Aaron Boone (incompetent managers having won plenty of World Series).

It was because their general manager, Brian Cashman, made once again the same mistakes that he makes year after year, and failed to put the right players on the field—.even after their proven failures in the recent past.






  

22 comments:

  1. But tell us how you REALLY feel, Hoss...

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  2. Cashman is the single worst GM in baseball history. I don't see how anyone could be worse. It's astonishing. The money he spends never shows up on the field. Poor judgement, bad statistical analysis, terrible player assessments, way oversized ego, arrogant, and completely incompetent.

    But, aside from that...

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    1. Pound for pound, Cashman is the worst ever. In a game of probabilities, he actually minimizes their chance of success. That's why he's the worst ever.

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  3. Amen, Hoss. Batting average and hits are more important than anything else. OPS is a great stat, but you have to look also at the batter's average and the total hits during the year.

    Batting average is crucial. It's the only stat that tells you what is the probability of this hitter getting a hit, a fucking hit, in any particular at-bat. Even OPS does not do that. (It's possible for a player to have a high OPS but a relatively low batting average.) But in a spot where you want a hit to drive in a runner, batting average is king.

    That's why, for most of its existence, the first stat on the board following a batter's name was ... his batting average. Thank God the Brewers just proved that this season. Hopefully, the Brewers championship will usher in a new era of return to sanity in baseball.

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  4. If batters could hit home runs just as easily as they could hit a single, then it would be different. But that's not reality. It's just simple math and probability that determines the most efficient way to score runs and win. Hitting home runs is great, but it doesn't happen often enough to warrant basing your entire offense around home runs.

    A great home run hitter will hit 60 home runs in a great year, like Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Aaron Judge. A great line drive hitter will get 200 hits, maybe more, during a year.

    The simple math is that, even if all 60 home runs were "spread out" so that Aaron Judge hit no more than one home run in any one game, his home runs would only impact, at most, only 60 games! Whereas, if you take Derek Jeter and his 220 hits and "spread out" those hits, the potential is there for those 220 hits to impact every game of the 162 game season!

    Of course, home runs and hits are never actually "spread out" so that they happen one per game. There will be some games where a player hits multiple home runs in one game and where he gets multiple singles or doubles in one game.

    But, as I said, it's a game of percentages and probabilities. If you want to maximize your chances of scoring runs and winning, you have to be versatile. You should never have a lineup of all home run hitters with microscopic batting averages. You should never have a one sided lineup, with all righty hitters or all lefty hitters.

    If you want to construct a ball club that will be 100% SURE TO FAIL, then put together a lineup with microscopic batting averages. And have your batting coach teach your batters to swing for the fences on every pitch. And tell them to swing as hard as they possibly can on every pitch, just in case they hit it, so they can maximize their chances of hitting a home run.

    This being baseball, there is actually one possible way for a microscopic batting average team to win a championship: if the other team(s) also has/have a microscopic batting average! Unfortunately for the Yankees, that didn't happen this year. And even if the Yankees had beaten the Rays to get to World Series, the Yankees would've been completely destroyed by the Brewers.

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  5. There was a great comment during the game last night by, (I think it was), John Smoltz. He said that batters are taught these days to never deviate from their "A" home run swing. So, no matter the count, or the situation, they're swinging with max effort for a home run. Yep, exactly what the Yankees do these days.

    He also said that, maybe doing that would maximize run production over the course of the entire year, but that, in one playoff game, or in a certain situation, that's not going to get the job done. Amen. Always swinging for the fences not going to get the job done. Please post on every clubhouse bulletin board.

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  6. Hasn't been brought up in awhile, but whatever happened to "strong up the middle"? The Yankees are anything but...

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    1. Lombard is the only foundational player they have up the middle. Maybe Volpe could be the 2B. That still leaves C and CF. Big holes.

      Brewers are very strong up the middle. They're good everywhere, but defense up the middle is their strength.

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  7. So Cashman continues to make those "mistakes", putting the wrong players on the field. But Cashman is always here until Kingdom Come. Why?

    We can only surmise that most of it is intentional. Cashman is not playing to win championships. He's doing risk management, money management. And it must be at Hal's bidding. So Hal is very happy with Cashman's money management skills. Ergo Cashman got another extension and will continue this money management scheme.

    There's no end in sight, unless the new collective bargaining agreement somehow throws a wrench into this. I don't think the lords of baseball would agree to anything that damages their bank accounts, so the chances of a wrench and a big shake up are pretty much zero.

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  8. Excellent post, Hoss. Other GMs in baseball surely laugh at the incompetence of Cashman behind his back while complimenting him to his face in order to better fleece him in trades. And yet Michael Kay on his radio show claimed that if Cashman were not retained, at least ten teams would aggressively pursue him as their GM. Sure they would.

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    1. Michael Kay should be a stand up comic! Will he ever do Saturday Night Live? Or, actually, I think "Mad TV" is more Michael Kay's style. Funniest skit I've ever seen was on Mad TV with this dude pretending to be Kenny Rogers (I think?) and he and some other guy were beating each other whilst drinking whiskey, puking all over the place. It was the "Jackass" episode, I think.

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  9. "In other words, there are many ways to play winning baseball. Brian Cashman is bad at all of them."

    I snorted my cough syrup out of my nose!

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  10. Thanks, guys! And Carl, I devoutly wish the Yankees would put that to the test. To quote from "Tombstone": "Go ahead. Go ahead and pull that smoke wagon, and see what happens."

    On the other hand, some of these owners are so stupid...

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  11. HoG. OPS is a very good stat because it gives a single number that is a pretty representation of offensive ability. It is derived from BA and OBP and SLG. But the huge butt (elephant? Elephant's butt?) in the room is that BA is part of the calculation of both OBP and SLG. So BA is very important.

    For fuck sake CashBrain!! IT'S RIGHT THERE IN THE MATH!! IT'S NOT EVEN HIGHER LEVEL MATH, YOU SCABROUS WHORE!!

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  12. Replies
    1. You got it! Just like my favorite author, Alexandre Dumas!

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  13. The long, cold winter of our discontent has begun - even though it's actually warm in New York City at the moment. And I am in no rush for baseball to resume. Same with the hot stove. Because who wants to watch a moron play chess? Brian will make more bad moves. The lockout will be a drag. Hal will be richer each day. And Boone will just sit back and look stupid. Because he is stupid. I don't watch football anymore. It's possible I'll watch the Knicks a bit, but I'm more likely to re-read Dashiell Hammett and Raymond Chandler.

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  14. Hey man, I just watched the sequel to Spinal Tap. Very cool movie! I'll do a proper review some time.

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    1. I went to the theater today and saw "The History of Concrete."

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  15. But Genius Cashman is a Genius. Bauer is a stiff.

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  16. "war",what is it good for, absolutely nothing?!

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