My tortured, worrisome, fearless and hopeful predictions for 2012

Write this down.

1. Our rotation will crumble. Last year, we lost one big man: Clarence. This year, it will be Sabathia. It will begin in an stark, unbearable heat wave of July - a couple bad outings, then reports of a tweaked somethingorother. He's been Iron Man, but with an ever-escalating vulnerability, manifested by the way they hen-peck him over his weight. He might go down for two months. When he's down, we have no ace. Pineda, the Little Bigman, will be inconsistent, with flashes of brilliance that allow Cashman to keep his job. Same with Andy. When he's on, he will be Andy. When off, Amos. Hughes and Nova will be disappointments. Freddy will be Freddy. Look for Warren, Phelps and a string of scrap-heapers throughout August. It's going to be too freaking hot to sustain starting pitchers.

2. Our bullpen will be magnificent. Best in baseball. Mariano will pitch into the sunset of his career. Soriano will improve, that opening year in New York under his belt. Robertson someday shall be a Yankee great. The two remaining B's - Betances and Banuelos - will arrive for the dog days. Say what you wish about Cashman's blind spots; he is relentless when it comes to perusing the waiver wire for spare parts. We may still lack a LOOGY - Clay Rapada won't be the answer. Thank God for the bullpen. It will save us.

3. The infield will be sound. Arod will hit in the first half, though wear and tear on that hip cannot be over-estimated. Third base is hell on joints. (It will utterly destroy Youkilis.) Jeet will be slower, Cano will be great, and Teixiera seems to have wised-up. But Eduardo Nunez might be our MVP. Unless his hand is a problem, the guy can hit.

4. The outfield will be strong. When healthy - no nicks on the thumb - Brett Gardner is our toughest out. He can devastate an otherwise unhittable pitcher. Last year, he went through slumps when he couldn't hit or steal a base. This year, he'll cut through the malaise. Grandy and Swish will rise and fall - but both will get their numbers and play defense. As for Ibanez, I'm liking the grit. In the harsh spotlight of Tampa, when he was 2-for-twentysomething, the Gammonites crashed upon him, and one asked if he'd ever seen so many writers at one time. No, he said. This is a first, and added sardonically, "Congratulations to me." That's a guy who wins games.

5. We will make the post-season. Which is where predictions cease. The vagaries of October are too far off. In those playoffs, we will face Tampa (still an emerging nation), the Tigers (a growing dynasty in the Central), and the Rangers and Angels. Cashman is right: Texas is baseball's best team. What's scarier is that they have baseball's best farm system, too. One of these years, they will win a ring. But that doesn't mean we can't take them in five.