If you're too successful you're probably not game theory optimal and not taking enough risks. You should almost certainly be issuing a number of failed challenges regularly. Its not like they carry over to the next game.
For example, lets say you have a crappy 10% chance of winning a challenge in the 7th inning that would have a ~20% change in win expectancy. You should challenge that every single time even though it will almost certainly fail and you will likely lose your challenge. It is extremely unlikely that saving your challenge for a possibly better chance later will ever have a bigger net win expectancy swing in your favor.
So it makes sense good teams have issued lots of failed challenges -- they take rational risks.
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Anonymous is exactly right. I'd like to know who had the most plays overturned, period.
It's like the third base coach who brags he's never had a guy thrown out at home all year -- that clown is obviously not taking enough risks. If they have to make a perfect throw to nail the runner, its a good bet to go for the run and risk the throw out. I'm still pissed off at that idiot Steinbrenner for firing Mike Ferraro.
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If you're too successful you're probably not game theory optimal and not taking enough risks. You should almost certainly be issuing a number of failed challenges regularly. Its not like they carry over to the next game.
ReplyDeleteFor example, lets say you have a crappy 10% chance of winning a challenge in the 7th inning that would have a ~20% change in win expectancy. You should challenge that every single time even though it will almost certainly fail and you will likely lose your challenge. It is extremely unlikely that saving your challenge for a possibly better chance later will ever have a bigger net win expectancy swing in your favor.
So it makes sense good teams have issued lots of failed challenges -- they take rational risks.
DODGERS WIN!..DODGERS WIN!...YES!...CLOSE IT OUT WITH GREINKE BABY!!!!!
ReplyDeleteALERT!..ALERT!.....WHO IS THE GUY THAT KEEPS HAVING THE CRAZY IDEA OF PUTTING DANIEL MURPHY AT 2ND BASE IN 2016?....(ME)!.....IF WE ARE NOT GOING TO GIVE REFSNYDER THE JOB, (AND KNOWING HOW FUCKED UP CASH AND JOE G. THINK, THEY WON'T), THEN LETS GET FREE AGENT TO BE DANIEL MURPHY, FOR 2ND BASE IN 2016)...HE JUST SMACKED A SECOND PLAYOFF HOMER OFF CLAYTON KERSHAW (MAYBE THE BEST LEFTY IN MLB)...THIS GUY HITS IN THE CLUTCH!...AND I KEEP SEEING HIM HITTING 25 OR MORE HOMERS AND 80- 90 RBI's (IF HEALTHY).....WE MUST IMPROVE OUR OFFENSE (EVEN AT THE COST OF SOME DEFENSE), BECAUSE OUR LINEUP SUCKS, SUCKS, SUCKS!...WE CAN NOT HIT IN THE CLUTCH, AND WE CAN NOT SCORE RUNS EASILY...IT'S LIKE PULLING FUCKING TEETH FOR US TO GET A RUN IN FROM 3RD WITH ANY AMOUNT OF OUTS!..I CAN'T STAND IT ANYMORE!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThat instant replay challenge bullshit is one of baseball's worst ideas.
ReplyDeleteTotally against traditional baseball. A media waste of time for the TV hype & talking heads.
COMMENT DELETED?...GUARANTEED IT WAS A MET FAN!...LOL !
ReplyDeleteAnonymous is exactly right. I'd like to know who had the most plays overturned, period.
ReplyDeleteIt's like the third base coach who brags he's never had a guy thrown out at home all year -- that clown is obviously not taking enough risks. If they have to make a perfect throw to nail the runner, its a good bet to go for the run and risk the throw out. I'm still pissed off at that idiot Steinbrenner for firing Mike Ferraro.
Yes, who cares about the percentage? Look at the Cubs. Last is percent successful challenges but first in the number of over-turned calls.
ReplyDeleteSo, who's smarter, the Cubs or the Yanks?
Only a FOOL would say the Yanks!!
I really want the world to know about this great man who brought back happiness into my life again after my husband left me and the kids 3 years ago for another women online when i contacted Dr Believe he cast a love spell for me within 48 hours my ex husband start calling me and begging for forgiveness for everything that have happened between us. I was so happy to have my family back together with love again here is the email of Dr Believe via believelovespelltemple@gmail.com a man with the great powers you can also call him or add him on Whats-app: +2348156148821
ReplyDeleteGod bless you
I am very grateful for your help in my marriage.