Here Are My Thoughts

I'm feeling a bit better today and have now been sober for nearly 6 hours.  My AA counselor
says, " any sobriety is good."  Personally, I disagree.

Drinking to me is sport.  And it goes along with Yankee baseball.  So, to over-indulge frequently,
 " in season," is not only forgivable, it is understandable.  And this Yankee team may well require many celebrations, positive and negative.

Truth be told, the impact on my social life and personality from too much alcohol is zero.

So, here are some thoughts:

1.  I stopped drinking when I heard that ( contrary to the egregiously erroneous grapevine rumors) that Judge was named our starting right fielder. It was going to , " put me under a bench," so to speak, if he had been demoted.  So that is a major positive.

2.  I think the team will win between 70 and 88 games.  If this seems fanciful, I just am trying to be accurate.

3.  Tanaka will likely begin the season with a 12-3 record.  And he will be robbed of a few great outings when the team just doesn't produce.  Come late August, however, he will have some down time, due to a twinge or two in his right arm.  Still no surgery, but losing him for any substantial period of time will be disastrous for this team.

4.  Pineda is just not credible to me.  I still believe we lost out in the Jesus trade.  He will be 6-10, at best, before September.

5.  CC will be durable and get us in the neighborhood of 12 wins.  The problem;  he will usually pitch 5 plus innings, give up about 3-4 runs, and expend 95 pitches in so doing.

6.  Severino will be a surprise on the up-side.  If he gets run support, his record will be highly positive.  I do sense an injury, however, that will not be in his arm.  So, after a run of 4- 5 great outings, and some okay ones, he'll have given us an 8-3 record before he sits.

7   Our 5th starter is likely to be Adam Warren, at the outset.  Adam will be inconsistent, and give us about a .500 record.  Usually, this is acceptable for a number 5 starter. ( Imagine;  getting paid millions to be average?)

8.  I see many changes in our bullpen as the season progresses.  I just don't see Shreve being effective for more than two months, as an example.  I also think Bryan Mitchell will disappoint.  Layne and Holder remain mysteries to me.  I think we will see at least two of these four replaced by guys now in Scranton, before the end of June.

9.  Bird will remain a revelation at first base.

10.  The first " big moment" for Chris Carter will result in a strikeout.  And so will the second.

11.  Ellsbury will be an effective singles hitter and a weak-armed centerfielder for most of the season.  Not enough production for that position.

12.  Hicks will lose his edge, as he watches an ineffective Gardner remain in LF.

13.  I think Judge will deliver, big time, and I think Holliday has a good year remaining in his body.  Until, he tweaks a pectoral muscle, that is.  And if Chris Carter has to be the regular DH, we are in trouble.

14.  Torreyes will do yeoman's work at SS, but he is a better Yankee as a reserve.  Kozma is a cowardly move by management and, well, I hope he doesn't flop.  But he will not be a clutch performer.

15.  I have no concerns about Sanchez or Starlin, though I predict another slow start for Headley.  He burned out his good luck in training camp.

Duque has already interrupted and said my, " games won," prediction is outside the rules.  So I select 86 wins.  We are going to the one-game play-in, for which Hal has committed millions of a fortune he did not make, and does not deserve.