Big loser in the Rule 5 draft, the people who rank Yankee prospects

In yesterday's Rule 5 draft - MLB's annual panty raid of the Yankee system - the Empire lost four prospects. It's the 2nd straight year we've been the game's most picked-over carcass. (Of course, teams must keep each draftee on their 25-man roster all season - always a long shot - so we'll probably get most of them back.) We could debate the magnitude of these losses, but who the hell knows? To me, what's notable here is that, until yesterday, the kidnapped foursome - pitchers Anyelo Gomez, Jose Mesa Jr. and Nestor Cortez and 1B Mike Ford - were mere blips in the avalanche of prospect "rankings" that arrive every winter.

Events over the last month should remind us of the folly in these lists. In November, the Yanks added to their 40-man roster pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga, prompting a blogger chorus to say, "Um... who?" For three years, Loaisiga has traveled under the radar, until Darth Cashman protected him over more touted no-names.

Last week, the former chief architect of the Yankee farm system, the Marlins' Gary Denbo, snapped up little-known Jose Devers in what the NY media would have us think is "The Great Giancarlo Stanton Steal." This too prompted instant sighs of relief: "Whew, at least we didn't lose any big name prospects!" But let's not kid ourselves: Denbo knew what he was doing. He didn't get Glyber Torres, but he might have just nabbed the next Glyber Torres.

Yesterday, the first Yankee plucked was Gomez, a 24-year-old pitcher who soared through the farm system last year - four levels in three months - while somehow escaping press. We know less about Gomez than we do of that interstellar asteroid, which is generating buzz because it's shaped like a turd. On John Sickels' recent white paper dossier on the Yankee farm system, Gomez was rated a "C+," lumped in with a dozen others who were, for the most part, more known to fans. Also on the list was Mesa - a hard name to miss because of his dad - and Ford, who always created newsprint because he's from Princeton. (Sickels didn't give Ford a rating but listed him as a "player of note.") Of the four draftees, Cortez was the most prominently blogged; Sickels put him at C+/B- (and he called him "the most interesting C+ in the system," saying he could be the next Jordan Montgomery.) Ow. 

All this points to a few things the bloggers got right: Talent-wise, the Yankees have one of the game's deepest systems. Also, I don't mean to rank on the rankers. Franchises often bury prospects rather than subject them to media blather. The lists are parlor games, and that's okay. In our hearts, we know that most will never make The Show. It's just fun to dream. Still, when dealing with trades, I offer three rules:

1. Never declare victory until at least four years have passed. (For the record; Michael Pineda signed yesterday with Minnesota, and Jesus Montero is now playing in the Mexican League - wait, should we sign Jesus? I SAY, YES! WHAT A BACKSTORY!) I still fear that last year's trade for Sonny Gray will be condemned by future Yankee generations. 

2. Always assume the other team got more than what the Yankees claim was lost. Our franchise's kryptonite has always been hubris, and the NY media loves to claim we gave up next to nothing. (Gammonites have a vested interest in Cashman returning their calls.) Today, the Stanton deal does look great. In five years, if Stanton is a $33 million millstone and Jose Devers is a star... well, print this out and save.

3. Always remember: There is no long game in trading youth. Anybody old enough to remember the 1980s knows this. Today, it looks like the Yankees are about to deal Clint Frazier - basically because Jacoby Ellsbury is an anvil in the pile of feathers - for another of Cashman's power arms. Every few years, he bundles prospects for a Next Sure Thing: Javier Lopez, Jeff Weaver, Humberto Sanchez, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray - only to find they're a month past the sell date. Now, it looks like Geritt Cole. Yeah, I realize Frazier is blocked in the outfield. Still... insert sigh here.

All I know is that when it happens, no one should be surprised if the media looks at prospect rankings and shouts, "Wow, the Yankees gave up nothing, nothing!" And what the hell is that turd-shaped rock floating in space? My guess: It's one of the moon shots that was hit off Weaver.