Aaron Judge leading off could mean the death of small ball

Computer models tell us to screw 100-years of tradition and bat your best hitter second, not third. Move him up, and he'll come to bat 50-60 times more per season, which means more runs. Better yet, bat him first, and that's maybe another 50 whacks. It's simple. Trust the numbers. Liars figure, but figures can't lie. 

But the old coot dunno. He still remembers when the prototypical lead-off man was the Angels' little Albie Pearson (now 83, hello sir, do you still google yourself?), and we had Bobby Richardson (82, hows the weather in South Carolina, sir?). They were followed in lineups by cagey Number Twos - like the Dodgers' Junior Gilliam (R.I.P.) or our Tony Kubek (82 and surely off-line, chopping wood somewhere without road access in Wisconsin.) The lead-off man secured first, and from there, a SB and a bunt moved him to third with one out. The next batter shortened his swing to score the run. Simple, effective... and of the previous millennium. 

These days, nobody denies himself a home run swing. Without dingers, he won't last long in the majors. No sooner did we trade for Brendan Drury than the Yanks were touting his new upper-cut trajectory, bringing more power - and presumably, more Ks. Last year, nine MLB shortstops hit 20 or more HRs. This season, the Yankees could field the most prolific homer-hitting lineup in our lifetimes. (Last year, they led baseball with 241.) With Giancarlo and some luck, we could hit 300. 

But a question remains: In a tied ninth inning, can we scratch out one single game-winning run?

Will we have role players, capable of bunting, stealing a base or putting a ball into play when a strikeout is absolutely intolerable? This team could have the brute force power to score 900 runs (last year: 858, second to Houston.) But can we score one with a game on the line? 

We can win 10-1. Can we win 3-2?

The old coot dunno. On a simulation, Aaron Judge leading off makes sense. Last year, Yankee lead-off hitters got on base at a .345 percentage (10th in MLB.) Judge's OBP: .422. Plus, he takes a shitload of pitches. But a lineup where Judge bats first is not geared toward situational hitting, or scratching out the one lone run. It subscribes to the computer model where every batter takes his swings, damn the Ks. 

I submit that Yankee fans should fear this sense of bludgeoning homer-happy hubris. 

Not long ago, the KC Royals won the World Series by scoring one run at a time. Last year, the Redsocks hit 73 fewer homers than the Yankees but still wrapped up the AL East with a week to spare. And they did it without a masher DH and a workable David Price. 

If there is one fear in the Yankiverse this spring, it should be hubris - the real Yankee killer. It's the notion that we can simply homer our way to the pennant or - crazier still, considering playoffs pitching - a world championship. From early indications, Aaron Boone isn't exactly the reincarnation of Billy Martin. In fact, he looks more likely to use computer printouts from upstairs, from his boss, the real decision-maker.

Aaron Judge batting lead-off? Jeez, the old coot dunno. It might look good in a computer simulation. But can we steal a run when we need one? Can we be a championship team? Stay tuned.