But in assessing the 2018 Yankees, did we ignore obvious cracks in the engine casing, which threatened to bring this plane down? Just look...
The Rotation: Already, our big five has frayed to the point of concern. We chose to remember Masahiro Tanaka's October, ignoring his season of sharp decline. We bought into the Sonny Gray hype, forgetting his inconsistency last summer. Somehow, we pictured CC as the next Bartolo Colon. We still hope for the late summer arrivals of Sheffield, Tate, German and others - (Chance Adams looks like bust) - but who sees us making it to July with this flimsy rotation? In the next few weeks, we're likely to see David Hale, Brady Lail and Cale Coshow throwing one-and-off games. Who saw that?
The Bullpen: Betances didn't solve his issues; he remains a headcase. El Chapo's heat isn't dominating hitters like it did; every team has someone who throws 100 mph. And as Dr. Seuss might say: Mean Chad Green/ could run out of steam/ by June fifteen! What some fools ridiculously touted as baseball's best bullpen now looks frail and compromised, and no lead is safe. Kahnle is gone for now, Ben Heller done for the year, Cessa likely out for a month - dear God - it's amazing to think how distressed our bullpen is, and it's only April 19, following several rain outs. What's going to happen in the meat grinder of July?
Positional depth: Wow. This was our secret weapon. We had young, ascending players in every slot, waiting to take over. But a wave of career-threatening injuries has changed everything. Brendan Drury has migraines; something is terribly wrong. Greg Bird's foot is barking - again; can we ever count on him? Same with Aaron Hicks' obliques; he is No Hope Hicks. Clint Frazier's concussion puts his future in limbo. And Jacoby Ellsbury is now stacking injuries like Legos; his career has moved from farce to tragedy. Is he the worst free agent fiasco in Yankee history? This freezing spring isn't leaving. More injuries are likely to come.
Finally, there is the mystery of Giancarlo, for which no answer yet exists. How could this guy go seven years in the National League without learning to play entry-level outfield? The fly balls he has botched are the stuff of Little League. At the plate, he looks lost, an albatross around the neck of this team. How did this guy win the MVP? And how much of his success stems from playing for last-place teams?
He was the bright, shiny object from which we could not remove our eyes. We hypnotized ourselves into ignoring our problems. In February, we looked at the Yankee lineup and saw a modern day Murderers Row. Now, are we looking at the Titanic?
Buying into the belief - over and over and over again - that Cashman can build a great team is similar to believing that tax cuts will pay for themselves. It’s called “trickle-down analytics” and its premised on the ideas that sub-par players and retreads will somehow defy the odds and improve once they hit the Bronx.
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ReplyDeleteThe only chance of making the playoffs the team seems to have -- right now -- is to outhit the other guys.
I think they can do it!!!
But it's not a sure thing, it really isn't happening (consistently) yet, and they are not chalking up come-from-behind wins with their bats.
There is, still, a chance.
Alternatively, there is -- next year!
Again, Boston and Houston are better. This should not be new news.The Yankees are a year away and that will take a significant second wave from the minor league system. For the Yankees to be the best team in the AL, they need two more position players and some combination of starting and relief pitchers to move up and become significant contributors to the big league team. We can make the playoffs with what we have, but might not get by Minnesota this year.
ReplyDeleteAs the one who tripped the furthest on the Cashman Kool-Aid, I have to say that Duque has put his finger on it.
ReplyDeleteFor me, the team seemed to have incredible depth, and last year's playoffs seemed to indicate that said depth extended to the pitching staff.
The crazy rash of injuries could not have been foreseen—not at this level. Even I, a confirmed Cashman hater for many a year, would never have thought he would trade for what was supposed to be a key player who had a history of mysterious migraines. And the enigma wrapped in a riddle inside a Giancarlo continues.
But in the end...it don't mean a thing if you ain't got pitching.
I was one of those who just assumed that the minor league arms would be as good and as ready as the Yanks said they were because, hey, everybody else from the minors seemed to be for real!
And while I would never have trusted Sonny Gray with a key game, I did think that, with the hitting support he was likely to get, he could go through the regular season winning—and giving us 7 innings—regularly, in the No. 3 or No. 4 slot.
And yes, like everyone else, I thought the depth of this bullpen alone would put us across.
Bad assumptions, every one!
BUT—don't despair! We re-signed Adam Lind!
ReplyDeleteSadly your analysis is all too accurate. Yet Joe makes a valid point as well.
ReplyDeleteLet's say Boston is a runaway train for now. It sure looks like it. But it's a long long season and it's not how you start it's how you finish (as long as you make the playoffs - even the one game play in version)
I think Seattle once won 116 games or something like that and never made it out of the Bronx. I do believe that we are good enough to be a playoff team. Once there it's a crap shoot.
You're right we bought the hype. But there has to be something to hype. Stanton really was last year's MVP. I don't know what his issues are right now but he's no has been.
But even if he was, as William Shatner once sang in his amazing album "Has Been" (and by the way I'm not kidding it is a GREAT album)
Has been implies failure not so
Has been is history
Has been was
Has been might again.
Then there are the young guys. We complained when we signed Drury and Walker because it was going to stop Gleybar and Andujar. Well Andujar is playing and Gleybar has to be just days away at this point. So the issues with Drury and Walker are just fine with me. The kids get a chance. I hope they are great and remember it's not how you start it's how you finish as long as you make the playoffs. If they play to potential (and Andujar is starting to hit) they could be fearsome. Maybe Bird comes back in August. So he's ready for the playoffs just like last year.
Also, it's interesting that both Sonny Gray and Tanaka have significantly lower ERAs with Romine behind the plate. Significantly. I don't know what to say about that because offensively we need Sanchez in the line up but that needs to be figured out.
We all know Judge and Didi are awesome. So bottom line. It really is early. It doesn't make it easier or fun to watch. I'm looking for Mr.Gleybar. And we'll just have to see how it goes.
Doug K.
Those of us who projected a season win total in the 80s are not shocked, but are sad to see we might have been right.
ReplyDeleteGhost, you may have to add a year or two to that "we're a year away" idea.
Horace, more than one of us were saying that injuries were coming. We knew Ells, figured on Bird, didn't expect Drury but thought his signing was bullshit anyway, surmised that Hicks was either going to revert to his historic mean or maybe get injured again. Frazier and McKinney were surprises, yep. We questioned the headcases in the bullpen and said the starting rotation was rickety and far from first-rate. (In an earlier post, btw, you thought Montgomery was a trade chip. No. He and Severino are the only ones worth keeping at this point. Though I had hoped Tanaka would rebound from last year.)
And we had grave misgivings about Stanton, especially since we lost Castro in the deal. We needed him for at least another year, and from the looks of it, maybe a lot longer.
Masking tape and baling wire. With some great young stars that need a team around them that can win, before their talents go into decline.
Here's to the men who said 80s, who all wish we'll end up being proven wrong.
I actually don't think we're a year away from anything but more bullshit. We either do what a crackhead cannot do, which is refrain from impulse moves, be patient, and slowly build - OR we buy something big, but Big Daddy won't allow that, as he wants to keep his bank book topped off. OR we keep trading retreads for the quick fix of *feeling* like we're doing something. We got lucky with Judge and a few others. We could have easily traded them for a bag of chicken bones last year, but we didn't. That kind of haphazard management doesn't create winners, let alone dynasties. There is no good baseball mind left in this organization, from the bottom to the top. We're not a year from dogshit until we get a few solid, young pitchers. We don't have guys like Zim and Stick anymore. That sounds like a good cartoon duo, by the way: "Zim and Stick Go Downtown," "Zim and Stick in California," "Zim and Stick Get Busted," etc.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I'm not only hopeless, but I am hopeless in full knowledge that some of the brainless slugs in Beantown are reading these words now and chortling. All I can tell them is "I'm keeping the seat next to me warm for you on this bus ride to hell." Don't get too cocky up there, you miserable fucks. You're the flip side of this coin.
I'm going to drink some coffee, walk the pup - who is rapidly learning how to piss and shit outside, unlike the Yankees, and try to get some work done.
And PS to Alphonoso, if you read this far - everything I said and wrote about Scranton Stanton was posted by my alter ego, who's brain rotted out in the 90s and who still believes in bunnies and rainbows. This is the real 13Bit speaking and I'm here to tell you all that I'll see you all in the last row of the stadium, curled up under my seat and shitting my pants after some meaningless win against the White Sox in August.
Zim and Stick walk into a bar...
ReplyDeleteDoug K.
I predicted 89 wins and feel hugely over-optimistic.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree. " A year away" from what?
There is no pitching in our farm system. The teams we made trades with have the prospect pitching talent we once owned.
We have dick.
Seriously, we have dick.
Love Zim and Stick!!
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm afraid I've swung all the way around to thinking we have nothing. Seriously: we could just as well win 71 games, as 89.
The problem is not that we traded Castro for Giancarlo, or that Gleyber and Andujar will get to play. And you can't do much about injuries of this sort.
But there is no pitching. There is not even any pitching on the way—and to be fair, though I hate to be, even the arms we traded off would not be a help this year or next.
John M., not only do I think of Montgomery as, at best, a trade chip, I think of him as a trade chip whose shelf life is rapidly expiring. He doesn't have major-league stuff, and that will out (even if he can't get outs).
Hell, when you look at Severino's 5.63 ERA in the playoffs combined with the pineapple he turned in against Boston already this month, I begin to wonder if even he is really going to be a stalwart in the years ahead, or just an average, No. 3 starter.
Waiting for Mr. Gleybar....
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