A big factor in Miguel Andujar not winning the Rookie of the Year Award he so richly deserved seems to be one of the great scams of this baseball era: advanced fielding statistics.
Sure, El Matador wasn't getting the award if the baseball writers of America could possibly help it, because he plays for the New York Yankees. But it was the fielding "statistics" that gave the Knights of the Press Box the intellectual armor to hide behind.
Supposedly, Miggy ranked 120th of the 124 regular fielders in the AL, according to an entity known as Ultimate Fan Zone Graphs, or some such nonsense. His flubs at third cost the Yankees, we are assured, a total of 16 runs on the season.
Trouble is, to paraphase Joe Welch during the Army-McCarthy hearings, this is an image of exactly nothing.
Literally nothing. Unlike every other baseball stat—unlike every other sports stat—the new fielding statistics promise to measure what DIDN'T happen.
It's the same sort of nonsense that led to otherwise intelligent people telling us that Derek Jeter was "the worst shortstop of all time" in the field.
Miguel Andujar committed 15 errors at third base last year. Not great, but not horrible. Not as bad as, say, the 23 errors that Chase Headley committed at third in 2015.
But hold on. Headley got a -0.3 defensive WAR (another dubious stat) from the experts for that. Andujar? A -2.2.
In other words, El Matador was over seven times worse a fielder than Headley according to the new geniuses of sabremetrics, than Headley was, despite making over one-third fewer errors.
How is that possible?
Why, because of the unseen world, of course!
The Ultimate Fan Graph Big Head Super Heroes claim to be able to calculate:
—How many balls Miguel Andujar SHOULD have got to, and
—How many runs his failure to catch up to said number of theoretical balls cost us.
There may be more things in heaven and earth than are dreamed of in Horatio's philosophy—but not for your average sabremetrician!
They KNOW that Andujar's actual errors were his fault, and not that of the bandy-legged stumble bum the Yankees chose to put on first base for most of the season.
They KNOW that the balls Andujar didn't get to were his fault, and not where his manager positioned him.
They KNOW that all those theoretical balls were Andujar's fault, and not where the Yankees might have positioned his slick-fielding shortstop partner, Sir Didi.
They KNOW exactly how the Yankees' pitchers were pitching—apparently, exactly like every other staff in major-league baseball—so that the theoretical balls Miggy missed were his fault, and not due to how hard said balls were hit, or where they were aimed in the first place.
They KNOW that those theoretical balls missed cost the Yankees exactly 16 runs (only one every 10 games, really).
They KNOW that none of the balls Andujar did not get to came in meaningful situations, and not when the team was up or down by 16-1, in the eighth inning of an afternoon game.
They know all these things that didn't happen, just from their statistics, without having to review ten seconds of actual play.
You know what's more? They also KNOW that Miggy's greatest, reality-based accomplishment—his 97 RBI—DOESN'T matter.
They KNOW that runs batted in depend wholly on how many runners are on base, not the individual batter's worth.
They KNOW there is no such thing as clutch (even though they spend so much time compiling stats for things like hits with runners in scoring position, or hits with two outs, or when it is "late and close.")
They KNOW, just like our genius manager and GM that the great Neil Walker was just as likely to drive in runs against Boston in our last game of the year as Andujar was.
It's amazing what they know.
Donald Rumsfeld with his known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns had nothing on these guys. Nor did medieval theologians, calculating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
Our sabremetrical geniuses are wasted in baseball. They ought to go into predicting the future, or maybe performing magic acts in Vegas.
Oh, the things that they know!
fabulous analysis! and these highly dubious defensive statistics (an honest saber-dude will admit this) actually caused our brain dead manager to bench our finest hitter in the game where we needed him the most. (No. I will never let this go..)
ReplyDeleteand Boone ended up.. what? Fifth in manager of the year voting? it'd be funny if not so infuriating.
HC66: Why don't you discreetly SFTU about matters you (a) have never read anything about and therefore (b) know nothing about? By your own admisssion, you have never read a single book on this subject--a damning admission that does not deter you from dribbling your daily quota of incoherent babble about it. Just a thought.
ReplyDeleteHey Hoss,
ReplyDeleteI owe you an apology. I just realized that the NY Pigeons isn't the actual name of the soccer team. It's some guy in a pigeon mask. I blame Evelyn Wood. Anyway sorry about that.
Doug K.
KD: You are RIGHT never to let it go! No more than Boston fans should ever let leaving Pedro in too long go.
ReplyDeleteDoug K.: No need to apologize. NYCFC is trying to disguise its entirely artificial nature by making out that the nickname "Pigeons" is being developed organically by the fans.
This is, of course, just another lie. As I think you pointed out, no self-respecting New Yorker would like to be known as a pigeon anymore than he would call his soccer team a "football club."
The institution I lived in for most of the summer has been build about 10 years ago adjacent to “the old building”. The new one look and feels like light and modern and soulless. The old one resembles something like a New Hampshire mansion (nurse Jenny standing on the porch - beware of the undertoad!). Everybody wants to be in that old building, but that does not seem to be beneficial. We need light and air and stairs should not squeak.
ReplyDeleteI confined myself to a rather small mental space. They knew me as the Baseball guy. The fool who didn’t seem to sleep, scurrying through the building with his earphones in. The funny thing is, that love for late night baseball is what really made me an idiot in the eyes of the others.
Professionals were happy I had something to do even though they preferred me lying in bed, asleep.
Inside the walled garden, one night at 3 am (btw our summer was extremely hot and long) there was a Field of Dreams. I think it is the only time they really thought I had lost it.
The Yankees, in my perception were idiots, led by Cooperstown. This blog housed my peers - loonies. It takes one to know one.
Real idiots always have made me laugh. And this summer the were my daily -multiple- dose of Risperidon. You were.
And this all turned out to be true.
There is so much to tell, but if I do you probably come after me with drones. No fooling me, I was in Long Island for a reason.
So yes, some people know a lot. Especially about nothingness.
BRAVO HOSS!
ReplyDeleteGREAT POST.
PUTTING ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ASIDE, HERE ARE A FEW MORE THINGS TO PONDER.
I THINK RAPHAEL DEVERS HAD 25 ERRORS AT 3RD THIS YEAR... 25!...HIS BACKUP WAS EDWARDO NUNEZ WHO STILL CAN'T FIELD EITHER.
BOSTON WON THE WORLD SERIES, GOING AWAY, WITH THESE 2 MANNING 3RD BASE ALL SEASON.
SO LET'S NOT LET COOPERSTOWN CASHMAN, OR ANY OF THE OTHER GM'S IN BASEBALL TRY TO RELIGIOUSLY SELL US THIS HARDCORE SABERMETRIC BULLSHIT FOR EVERY SINGLE FACET OF THE GAME.
SOME OF IT HAS SOME MERIT, THE NOW WIDE-SPREAD DEFENSIVE SHIFTS ARE AN EXAMPLE. (ALTHOUGH, ALAS, DEFENSIVE SHIFTS ARE NOT NEW)! ..REMEMBER JOHN MAYBERRY?
THE BOTTOM LINE IS YOU REALLY CAN'T EQUATE TODAY'S SABERMETRICS WITH WINNING THE WORLD SERIES...YOU JUST CAN'T.
I BELIEVE IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE, THE GAME WILL REVERT BACK TO "HOW IT WAS DESIGNED TO BE PLAYED." (QUOTE BY ALPHONSO)- HE'S RIGHT.
THE GAMES FOUNDING FATHERS KNEW BETTER THAN ANY SABER-METRIC NUMBERS GURU.
MOVING RUNNERS OVER, MAKING CONTACT, BUNTING, SHORTENING UP ON THE SWING WITH RUNNERS ON, PUTTING RUNNERS IN MOTION AT TIMES, AND OCCASIONALLY STEALING A BASE ARE ALL THINGS THAT ARE NOW SHUNNED UPON.
....AND LETS NOT SELL EACH AND EVERY ONE OF US MANIACAL YANKEE FANS ON THIS BLOG, SHORT.
IN OUR 50 PLUS YEARS APIECE WATCHING BASEBALL, WE HAVE SEEN, AND LEARNED PLENTY ON THE DIAMOND.
OUR KNOWLEDGE, OPINIONS, AND EXPERIENCE ARE NOT GROUNDLESS.
I just knew that demented, Asperger's, jack-off-in-mom's-basement, attention-seeking-whore BABY STAT BABY would snap at the bait in Hoss's most excellent analysis.
ReplyDeleteHahahahahaha!
What a weenie stat boy is!
Urban Farmer, I hope you're hanging in and doing as well as you can. We are happy to help with our idiocy!
ReplyDeleteALL-CAPS: I appreciate it. And you know, I looked up Devers after reading your post.
You're right: he had 24 errors, and a fielding percentage of .926—as opposed to 15 and .948 for Andujar.
So guess what the "defensive WAR" is for Devers? Just -0.9, or less than half of the -2.2 for Miggy.
Now, I'm sure there is some kind of formula to support this. Devers did have 40 more chances than Miggy, in fewer games. But of those extra 40 balls, he made errors on 9 of them, or almost 1 in every 4!
And yet...Devers is judged to be over TWICE as good a fielder as Andujar.
I ain't buyin' that.
The other fact that is always downgraded is how few runs we are really talking about.
ReplyDeleteThe horrible, terrible, absolutely no good, awful Andujar—even in all his awfulness—supposedly allowed 1 extra run every ten games. Not good, but awfully small compared to his hitting contributions.
The anti-Andujar analyses on the web get stupider and stupider, incidentally.
"Sure, Ohtani only played half a season. But his averages were better!"
"Sure, Ohtani didn't play a position. But that's better than Andujar fielding badly."
Sorry.
You don' get to be better than a full-time hitter when your team doesn't trust you to hit more than half the time.
You don't get judged to be a better fielder when your team doesn't even trust you to take the field.
The reason Andujar did not win Rookie of the Year is clear;
ReplyDeleteEveryone looked at what Boone did to him....benching him in the critical game and playing Neal Walker instead.....and said, " No one that gets benched for the team's most important game of the season,and can be replaced by Neal Walker, is ever going to be an ROY !
P.S. I know the timing is off, but this is the psychological influence that turned the tide. Everyone knew Boone was going to do this.
It is all Boone's fault. Except for the part that is on Cashman....signing Walker to a contract.
nice to see Urban Farmer back and in action. (sorry if I missed an earlier appearance.)
ReplyDeleteWell said! The only statistic that really matters is the score at the end of the game.
ReplyDeleteI design statistical modeling systems that geeks will eventually use and proclaim all truths. I choose the data points, the fields, how information will be rendered and analyzed. I write the algorithms that will analyze and even adapt to new information. I create the database world that analysts derive their supposed truths.
Does that make me a god of analysts?
I fear for humanity.
ReplyDeleteI really want the world to know about this great man who brought back happiness into my life again after my husband left me and the kids 3 years ago for another women online when i contacted Dr Believe he cast a love spell for me within 48 hours my ex husband start calling me and begging for forgiveness for everything that have happened between us. I was so happy to have my family back together with love again here is the email of Dr Believe via believelovespelltemple@gmail.com a man with the great powers you can also call him or add him on Whats-app: +2348156148821
God bless you
I am very grateful for your help in my marriage.