Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Highwater Mark

So now that the Yanks have finished blitzing London—sorry, too soon?—and the Red Sox, their record stands at 54-28, exactly where they were at this point last year.

This record reflects a great deal of organizational depth and intestinal fortitude, with one player after another coming through despite a rash of injuries.  It's been a heady effort by a very likable club.  And according to nearly every local or national commentator heard from on my TV machine or in the tabloid pages, it's all over but the shouting.

The Yanks are the best team in baseball.  They are a lock—to put down the Red Sox, to take the division.  Probably to win it all, if they can just find one more "power arm."  Or so we are told.

Forget it.  It's a pipe dream, and the usual suspects in the tabs and on the chatter shows are smoking some spectacular shit, as (I imagine) the kids say.  The big drop is just around the corner, and I'm not just writing this to conform to this site's policy of official, JuJu-appeasing pessimism.

Much as we think of last year's second half as a disaster, in 2018 from here on in the Yanks went a respectable, 46-34, to win 100 games.  That was despite considerable injuries then, too—even if management didn't always admit to them—to Judge, Sanchez, Sevvy, Bird, and others.

What made it so disappointing was that the Sox played out of their minds, and finished with 108 wins.  They won't do that well again this year.

The trouble is, neither will we.

The 2018 Yanks actually had a deeper, more consistent bullpen than the 2019 version.  It also had more starting pitching, thanks to what now seems like a miraculous 7-0, 2.69 performance by Happ in   his 11 starts.

No one like that is going to show up this year.

Coops has painted himself into a corner.  Nobody is going to trade the Yanks even a serviceable pitcher—much less a Scherzer or a Bumgarner—for a pouty young busher with a history of concussions, and who plays right field like a man searching for the edge of a cliff in the dark.

They're not going to take that deal even if we throw in the estimable Thairo the Pharaoh.  And there's nobody else left in the minors, not really.  Not even Estevan Florial, now hitting .198 in Single-A, who is the Yankees' centerfielder of the future and always will be.

No, there's no help coming.  And if anything, some of our hottest players—The General, Gio, Sancho—are more likely to cool off or, of course, get hurt.

And then there's the competition.

Of the Yankees' 80 remaining games, 45 are on the road, and only 35 are at home.

49 are against teams with records of .500 or better.  Only 31 are against losing squads, most of the games against Toronto or Baltimore.

We still have 8 games against Tampa Bay, and 12 against the Carmine Hose, with 8 of those in real Fenway, as opposed to EuroFenway.

We start the post-England season against one of those losing teams...but it's the Mets, who have finally broken their awful losing streak, and who always play these games against us as if they are their World Series (which they are).

All in all, we will be hard-pressed to even split these last 80 games.

It's likely our pitching will get worse.  Betances ain't coming, Sevvy ain't coming, and we don't know what, if anything, we can now expect from our favorite German.  We'd be fools to count on much from Happ and the Maple Sapling ("Happ and Sap"?), and the pen is bound to get winded.

The likes of Gio and The General are likely to cool off at least somewhat, and who knows what can happen to the likes of Judge, or Sancho, or Hick.  And if one of our more-or-less reliable starters—Tanaka and CC, basically—go down, this could really get ugly.

In other words, don't believe the hype.  This Yankees team will struggle in the second half.  It's more likely to miss the Wild Card Play-In Game than it is to win the World Series.

And again, that's not in any way to diminish the moxie of this hardworking, undaunted team.  As has often been said, the spirit is willing but the pitching is weak.

















16 comments:

  1. " a pouty young busher with a history of concussions, and who plays right field like a man searching for the edge of a cliff in the dark." What an asinine caricature of one of the best young players in the Yankees' system.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jeez, Hoss, I didn't know that Stat-Boy was in our minor league system - - but the concussions would explain his behavior - - at least, partially - - and you've had the best idea yet: Cash-Coops could TRADE him - - if only for a bag of used (altered) balls.

    Please, Cash, throw him into your trade with the Indians - - we'd all be better off (and you can include the Red Blunder, too). LB (No J)

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  3. You think they might actually be the same person?

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  4. Hoss, if you're betting that the Yankees won't even make the Sud Selig memorial game, I'll take that bet. I'll pass on betting on them winning the WS though. Too many things need to fall just right for that to happen.

    And it is just a little funny the the Stat-Boy's posts here really died down after The Red Menace was demoted. Coincidence? Maybe not!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ugh, this guy’s writing in unbearable. I’ve never seen someone bitch and cry so much about the best team in the AL. Go be a fucking Padres fan, you wet blanket

    ReplyDelete
  6. I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™
    I just got off of my shift at The Pizza Pit. Mommy had a sandwich waiting for me in my basement apartment and I ate it. Then I picked my zits and changed out of my cool orange and red uniform. After I attempted to sooth my onanism, I decided the world should know of the depth of my baseball knowledge. I insult everyone, but claim I’m the one being picked on. I’m Stat Boy!®™, and the world should pay for me being such a loser!
    I’m Stat Boy!®™

    ReplyDelete
  7. LB,

    Hopefully Ca$h makes that trade, and throws in a sense of humor for our unwanted mascot.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Damm you registered trademarked StatBoy®™ !!

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm shaking my first. You can't see because it's text, but I am.


    Fuckfuckfuckfuck you Hal.

    ReplyDelete
  10. All Stat Boy!®™ rights officially licensed through TWW Enterprises, LLC. Distributed through FYH Productions, LLC.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Rufus, I guess if I had to put down cash money—as opposed to Cash Money—I'd say the Yanks will make that Wild Card Play-In game.

    But I think it's hardly a lock, much less winning the division. Sure, injuries go both ways, and they could happen to Tampa and the BoSox, too. Or maybe Happ & Sap will surprise me, stay healthy, and figure it out.

    But just another injury or two—Tanaka's elbow finally goes, CC's knees give out—both of which are VERY, VERY possible, and we're going down the laundry chute.

    We've discussed this before: the key to building a dynasty, or even a one-time winner, is overkill. You get too many pitchers, especially, knowing that they are as skittish and undependable as race horses.

    It's been years since I've seen a Yankees team with so little pitching depth. That's why it would have made sense to sign Corbin and Keuchel, too. Not that they are so wonderful, but just that you need somebody to put out there.

    I'm tempted to say that all it would have cost was money, too—but then, that's the one commodity HAL is not about to surrender.

    ReplyDelete
  12. YOu might want to do the math. If you use data from the first 82 games projecting for the final 80 games and use w/l% on those above and below 500 during the first 82 games, then for final 80 games, the NYY should win 51. If you use the w/l% on home/away from the first 82 games, the NYY are projected to win 52 games in the final 80 games.

    51 wins in 80 games is a winning % of 63.75% and projects into 54 + 51 or 105. Doesn't look like a flop to me.

    That doesn't mean they'll get to 105 wins, but it does mean that if you're using those w/l % from the first 82 games for home/away or using the w/l% for winning/losing teams in first 82 games, the math doesn't support your idea that a disaster is projected. Just because you're hoping that will happen, means maybe you should use some other stats to support your hope.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hoss,

    I agree, more pitching would help. Especially if your goal is winning the World Series. The days of picking up a Cone in a late season trade are dwindling. And winning football score games is not the path to a WS victory.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I have to go with the stats. (!!!) We've done well against the winning teams AND the tomato cans, so while anything bad can happen (Luuuuke), I can't imagine it could be worse than what we've already been through.
    is
    The General is simply a great hitter. He hasn't cooled off yet, so I don't know if he will, or how much. God, his RISP numbers are, as a late friend used to say, gaudy. This guy is MVP material if he keeps fielding and hitting anywhere like this. And Didi, who I had discounted a bit, I admit, has been pulling off defensive plays that are purely spectacular. As much as our rotation is in shambles and our bullpen is in danger of having its collective arm fall off, we just keep winning--and against really good teams, like Houston and Boston and Minny.

    The whole theme of this season is, somehow these guys get it done. It's magical, but there's a chemistry happening that I haven't seen in quite a while.

    So, yeah, they may not win 105. But you know what? They might. And if they can beat teams with far superior starters now, there's no reason to believe they can't do it when a ring is on the line. I've been saying over and over that we have no starters to speak of, yet somehow we keep winning. Whether or not that can continue is a question, but it always is. These guys are a classic collection of stars, subs, nobodies who are becoming somebodies, and broken down warhorses, and I kinda like it.

    ReplyDelete

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