We can't whine. We can't go Zsa Zsa slapping the cop over a game between a team that's fighting for its life, and one who is sleepwalking into its second Ambien tablet. We shouldn't shout insults at the juju gods. We should be good sports, I guess.
Still, last night basically ended the 2019 Yankees' chance at post-season home field advantage. It means we'll probably face Houston in its own park, sleeping in its own beds, and it feeds the dark sense that these last seven magical months - the replacement players, the comebacks, the home runs - will lead to another empty October.
I suppose we can still win our final four, and the Astros could lose out. But if I were Aaron Boone today, I would start thinking about Minnesota, and light an early prayer candle on behalf of whatever wild card team faces Houston in the best of five. Realistically, folks, our quest to be home team: it's history.
Last night, Tampa once again showed why they are MLB's smartest team in this millennium. They pioneered the now ubiquitous defensive over-shift and invented the (likewise) bullpen start. They regularly contend in baseball's toughest division without having to tank. They have the game's top prospect, a switch-hitting SS, who looks like the next star off their assembly line. I wonder if our front office has benefited from simply operating in the same city? Do we go through their recycling bins? Do we get them drunk and steal their secrets?
If not, maybe we should.
Oh, well... today, I want to note a disturbing set of numbers, all of which were amplified last night: Yankee hitters who are free-falling into October.
On the right is a chart of slumps over the last 30 days. As you see, four critical players - Didi, Luke, Gio and Hammerin' Cameron - have been Missing In Action. (The Red Menace probably doesn't matter; he won't make the playoff roster.) In the cases of Urshela and Maybin, there remains the existential fear that pitchers have adjusted to them, and they haven't. With Didi, you worry about our ability to handle RH pitching - especially what the Astros will throw at us.
Over the last 30 games, others have stagnated: Gardy is hitting .250, Gleyber just .247 and Gary Sanchez at .233 (and recovering.) But their power numbers remain solid, suggesting they have gotten a bit homer-happy.
This weekend, the YES team birthed a litter of stats to debunk the theory that homer-happy lineups go dry in the post-season, when the quality of pitching improves. Well, as Humphrey Bogart said in The Harder They Fall, "You can make those numbers jump through hoops." My belief is that there are good hitters who hit HRs, and there are simple HR-hitters. The Yankees have excellent hitters - LeMahieu, Judge, Gleyber, Voit - and one who simply swings for the fences. (Sanchez.) A huge concern is whether Gardy and Gleyber are tilting into that category and where will Stanton and Encarnacion fit in? Will they return as pure hitters, or strikeout/walk/HR guys?
What's important next month is that we hit some singles and doubles.
Last night, we got nothing. Last night, we were a team that only scores via the HR. It was a sad sight, and it ended our season of home field dreams. Let's hope it's not an omen of what's to come.
We looked pathetic. No relation to the exciting team that routinely made late inning comebacks. No situational hitting. No hope if this keeps up.
ReplyDeleteI hope we're not reverting to form.
ReplyDelete"My belief is that there are good hitters who hit HRs, and there are simple HR-hitters. The Yankees have excellent hitters...
ReplyDeleteA huge concern is whether Gardy and Gleyber are tilting into that category...
What's important next month is that we hit some singles and doubles."
What Duque wrote is beyond true into mega true. Here's an example This friendly HR competition between Judge and Gardner is screwing Gardner up as he's getting away from from he need to do. Get on base. Voit has stopped going up the middle.
I have a theory. Apparently the Yankee players were not hugged enough as kids. Consequently they are all HR happy because if they hit one they will get a hug from Maybin. This is especially true for Luke.
Last - While we could say that all the Yankees looked bad at the plate I was especially concerned with Stanton again looking like Flaylin Jennings. He also had that horrible standing up swing where he stiffly swings without actually seeing where the ball is. Not good.
Doug K.
"Flaylin Jennings"
ReplyDeleteNice.
I think there is a natural tendency to let up when a team clinches, much as everyone says they're playing as hard as ever. It happens with the best of them. There just is not the same intensity.
ReplyDeleteWhat that will mean for the playoffs is...probably about the same thing that it always did. Houston will overwhelm everyone with its pitching and its fine, diverse hitting.
Incidentally, after last night TB and Oakland are at 94-64, and Cleveland is 93-64.
ReplyDeleteCould there be a tie for the One-Game Wild-Card play-in. A THREE-WAY TIE??? I don't even know how that is decided. But I do know that it would mean whoever wins would be all the more exhausted and short of pitchers in playing Houston.
"Three teams tie for both wild cards: Game 1: Team B at Team A, winner gets wild card; Game 2: Team C at loser of Game 1, winner gets remaining wild card."
ReplyDeleteFrom https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2019-mlb-playoffs-every-tiebreaker-scenario-explained-as-division-wild-card-races-wind-down/
Each team must play *at least* two or possibly three play-in games.
Thanks, Rufus.
ReplyDeleteAnd Duque? We're New Yorkers. We can ALWAYS whine!
For months, I have whiing in the most obnoxious way that we don't have the pitching to get us through a playoff series and that teams that rely on homers also don't have the legs to make it all the way through.
ReplyDeleteI stand by that, although the weight has changed. I had been more concerned about the state of our pitching every time I said that. For the past few months, I have been pleasantly surprised and entertained by better situational hitting than we have seen in over ten years.
I am not worried - a little - less about the pitching and more about the hitting. If we witness the return of the dreaded "Big Swing, Dead Bat Syndrome," it will be time to pull out the spiritual tomes, change the channel on the old Internet to something else and just shut down all baseball activities for the year, a la Saint Jacoby.
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