Saturday, February 1, 2020

New data shows the Astro cheating scandal was worse than we imagined

In case you missed this, an Astros fan, computer whiz and true American hero named Tony Adams has just blown the lid off MLB's sign-stealing scandal investigation, the one that has poured a toxic swamp over the last three post-seasons. 

Before Christmas, Adams downloaded every 2017 Houston Astros' home game and finagled a software application to sync the data with video of each at-bat, zeroing in on the sound of a banging trash can from the direction of the home dugout. He published his findings on a newly created site called signstealingscandal.com, and they explain why the see-no-evil, suited Keystone Cops of MLB could not turn away from the scandal. Adams looked at more than 8,200 pitches, counted 1,100 suspicious trash bangs, and thus has revealed the scope of an insidious operation, far more than anyone could have expected, and which seems to have clearly altered the outcome of the season. The Washington Post wrote about it yesterday. It's not going to disappear.

Some takeaways from Adams' work: 

* The data shows the Astros perfecting the cheat in April of 2017 and attaining full Dirty Tricks Mode by late May. In a May 28 win over Baltimore, Adams detected 28 trash bangs - or pitches tipped. Up to that date, only scattered bangs were heard. From then on, the numbers were almost always in the teens and twenties. The cheat was on. 

* On a September day after opposing pitcher Danny Farquar complained about sign-stealing, the practice abruptly stopped. The Astros went from 41 bangs - tipped pitches - to only one on the following night. The suggestion here: They knew exactly what they were doing, and they knew they had been caught. 

* Of the Astros, the greatest recipients of bang-help were Marwin Gonzalez (147 tipped pitches), George Springer (139), Carlos Beltrán (138) and Alex Bregman (133). Maybe instead of "M-V-P," Bregman's fans should chant "Lock him up." Relatively low on the list was Jose Altuve, though I still believe his new nickname should be "the Bang-Bang Shrimp."

* Most of the tipped pitches were breaking balls, which the Astro batters laid off on. This supports the rant by Marcus Stroman, who said recently that he could never understand how Astro hitters weren't biting on his slider. Well, the answer is now rather easy: They knew enough to avoid swinging at his "out" pitch.

* MLB's claim that no single outcome was affected by cheating looks increasingly tenuous. Adams spotlights a game on August 23, 2017, where 16 at bats - hinging on 29 tipped pitches - played a huge role in a 6-1 Houston victory. The Astros hit two home runs - one by Joel Marsonek and one by Bregman - in at-bats that included tipped pitches. By the way, the Houston starter that night was Mike Fiers, who later blew the whistle on the whole operation, and whom some Houston players seem to be portraying as a turncoat. Gee, I wonder what they'll say about Tony Adams? He's not a true fan?

* Adams investigation shows two late June games against the Yankees, in which Houston banged the trash can more than 80 times. The Yankees won the first game easily, then lost the second game, 7-6. In that game, Dellin Betances imploded, giving up four runs in the eighth. Yep, Dellin - possessor of the wipe-out curve and the 98 mph fastball. Then again, if you knew which pitch was coming, it would be a different story, eh?

What's next? Tony Adams has shown America the template for a full-scale investigation of how the Astros stole a world championship. The full impact of their cheating is only now coming to forefront. 

It's time to scrutinize the 2017, 2018 and 2019 post-seasons. This aint over.

14 comments:

  1. https://theathletic.com/1573075/2020/01/31/does-electronic-sign-stealing-work-the-astros-numbers-are-eye-popping/

    Athletic also seems to think so.

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  2. Hey do we need a huge public outcry or on 1 specific day fans just won't go to any mlb games that day to get MLB to penalize the players that got away unscathed. Hey Springer got a raise last arbitration year 2020 he gets 21 million. For cheating. He's on film getting the signs from the bullpen catcher. His manager and GM get thrown under the bus by the players and he reaps the benefits. What a bunch of bullshit. Manfred grow a pair.

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  3. Jose Altuve is the "Bang Bang Shrimp" ... Hey, I like that!

    What is so stupid about MLB's statement that they cannot prove that a single game was won/lost because of the cheating is that punishment for breaking the rules is not supposed to be dependent on the outcome of games. You are supposed to be punished regardless of win or loss. The crime itself is enough for punishment. Otherwise, every other instance of cheating in baseball should also go unpunished. Why punish a pitcher who threw a scuffed ball? Why punish steroid use? Why punish corked bats? Why punish future centerfield camera sign stealing? It is never going to be possible to prove that the cheating caused the cheating team to win ... too many variables.

    Why do these rules against cheating exist if MLB is not going to punish cheaters? They are creating an incentive to cheat by failing to punish. There is no incentive not to cheat, unless every opposing pitcher in baseball throws at the Astros and Red Sox batter's heads all season long in 2020, and for the rest of their careers as well.

    The Hammer of God

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  4. The Rules exist to give MLB cover while they wrap themselves in the Flag and wave their bibles.

    "See how righteous we are! See how we have done the right thing to the best of our abilities! Can't hold us accountable now, right!?

    Right??"


    Bootlickers for billionaires. Fuck them.

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  5. AND FUCK FUCK FUCK Bang Bang Shrimp!!!

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  6. This is my favorite all-time post. Facts. Devastating facts. If the Democrats had facts that clear and sharp, the Senate vote against trump would be like . . . 49 to 51!

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  7. Great point, Hammer.

    I think MLB's dilemma is this; They're worried that if they go all out on this, people will call for a remedy...and what could that be?

    Do they declare the Dodgers the 2017 champions? But then what about the Yankees? And what about Boston in 2018?

    It's rather like where the Yankees and MLB were when it looked like A-Rod might actually set the new all-time home run record.

    Should they discount it? But then, what about Bonds? But how they countenance yet ANOTHER juicer breaking a hallowed record?

    Their solution, of course, was to get rid of A-Rod...which was completely unfair, but worked for their purposes.

    They can't get rid of the Astros, though—or, heaven forbid, the Red Sox, the favorite team of MLB. So, what to do? Keep saying, 'You can't tell if that affected any one game.'

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  9. Unfortunately for MLB, of course you can tell. The data analysis on this has just started. It's going to take awhile but it will keep coming out. The data nerds grind slowly, but they also grind exceedingly fine.

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  10. " Adams looked at more than 8,200 pitches, counted 1,100 suspicious trash bangs, and thus has revealed the scope of an insidious operation..."
    I believe the scheme was to alert the batter if a pitch other than a fast ball was coming by banging the can. So, no bang meant look for heat. Therefore, the actual number of "tipped" pitches is far greater than 1,100. In 2017 55% of pitches were fastballs, so potentially 5,610
    (.55X8,200)+1,100) pitches were tipped.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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