On March 24, about 100 days following the outbreak, China said the epidemic was under control, and life could begin returning to normal.
We can be wary of anything China tells us (as you can, of me.) But for our simple-minded task of pondering the 2020 Yankees, let's assume America follows the Wuhan timeline. Thus, this outbreak would run about 100 days. (Even a wonder drug would take time to test and mass-distribute.)
On Jan. 21, the first U.S. case popped near Seattle. On March 1, a case turned up outside of NYC. Ever since, the numbers have exploded. Today, NY's "apex peak" in cases is probably 15-to-20 days away. From there, lesser outbreaks will roll across America.
Bottom line, it will probably be about 100 days - from March 1 to late May - before America starts returning to normal. One hundred really awful, terrible, horrible, truly shitty, rotten, wicked-bad days.
Assuming we're still here (which I prefer to do), let's say baseball camps could open around mid-May. (No fans allowed in.) The goal could be to open on Memorial Day, or June 1. Some games might be played in empty stadiums.
MLB would have lost about about 60 games. By canceling the All Star break, filling in off-days, playing seven-inning double-headers and adding an extra week in October, MLB could maybe play 100 games. (Question to the Peanut Gallery: Do any of you really want the World Series played in late November on neutral fields? I don't.) For the sake of pitchers' elbows alone, MLB might cut its losses and play a half-season, 80 games. Come September, we could enjoy a normal pennant race.
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So... stay safe, be kind, wash your hands, and you heard it here first:
There will be a baseball season. Think: July.
4th of July weekend makes sense if current trajectory holds. Be very wary of basing any projections on China's experience though.
ReplyDeleteJuly 1. Maybe.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing that makes sense is the idea of eliminating the HOME RUN DERBY.
ReplyDeleteif we're shut down til July, the Yankees will be the least of our worries.
ReplyDeleteNow THAT'S a leader!
ReplyDeleteWe're with you, Duque.
The big fear is this: NY may just have many more cases because it is doing much more testing—the most per capita in the country, according to the Times. Some other states, such as CA, are doing lots of testing but turning up many fewer cases. Well, good on them. No room for schadenfreude here.
BUT...BUT...a lot of states are simply not testing very much and not doing much. Looking at you, Florida, with your open beaches swarming with people.
I think it's only logical that some of those states are going to get hit with sudden, terrifying tidal waves of people at their hospitals, which will throw everything into chaos.
Even if the virus has indeed peaked and begun to decline in Florida, will they really be playing baseball if there are piles of dead around the hospitals?
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