Obviously, I have no crystal ball. And if the virus brings a hellish second wave, the lords of the game might choose to - mixing sports here - punt.
But as a traumatized nation contemplates reopening - its populace more than ever divided and angry - it's time to ponder potential deadlines. Here's a timeline, and I invite you all to show where I'm mistaken, because everything is changing - mixing sports here - on the fly.
Normally, it takes eight weeks for MLB grapefruit teams to launch a season. Because of the rush, teams would probably try to push it to a month. That would probably mean an expanded roster, with starting pitchers lasting three innings. It would also mean a lot more elbow and shoulder injuries. I'd hate to be the young flamethrower who tears something in such a lost season. But there will be many.
It's hard to imagine teams opening camps before mid-May, or even June 1. Both Florida and Arizona have yet to hit their viral peaks, and if the refrigerated body trucks are lined up outside hospitals, it will lessen a public clamor to add hundreds of baseball players to the quarantine. Still, let's say a consortium of owners and players push to reopen camps around Memorial Day.
That could set opening day for around July 1. Obviously, Trump would push for July 4th, with the games garnishing his address to the world from Mar-a-Lago, or the nation's bunker inside the Rocky Mountains. He will herald a Fox Network TV league played in cavernous stadiums before tiny crowds of selected Trump supporters and Republican donors, with piped-in cheering. If teams play through September, that's about 81 games - half a regular season, with the playoffs starting in October, as if nothing out of the ordinary has happened.
This assumes the vast logistical problems of protecting players, ancillary staffs and families can be overcome. Frankly, I doubt that can happen without an emerging drug remedy. But Trump will be pushing everybody's buttons, and the MLB owners - his billionaire brethren - will seek to oblige.
Somewhere, somebody has a spreadsheet that shows whether the owners will make or lose money by playing a short season - compared to tossing 2020 under the bus and letting the insurance industry foot the bill. I don't have those calculations. But I assure you, somebody does. I wonder if the huge slush fund that Congress recently passed can carve out money for the owners and players - hardship cases, all.
As a Yankee fan, I certainly hope some semblance of a season can be achieved. But even if the 2020 Yankees win a ring, it will come with an asterisk and without a parade down the Canyon of Heroes. Nothing that happens this year can ever be the same.
Since December, I have set my heart to the moment when Gerrit Cole walked to the mound at Yankee Stadium, before 55,000 people, to fulfill his lifelong dream. Until that happens, baseball won't have returned. I don't see that happening in 2020. Maybe something is better than nothing. I just donno anymore.
Duque, sometimes nothing is better than something.
ReplyDeleteI think since MLB had close to a month of spring training earlier only 2 weeks at the most would be needed. Don't forget, the players are still running, throwing and hitting in cages currently. On top of the 3 plus weeks they just had, 2 weeks more camp would be fine. And they could get started probably in 3 weeks which brings us to 5/11. Games could start either by Memorial Day (double-header like MLB used to schedule every holiday) or 6/1 at the latest.
ReplyDeleteIf they only use neutral warm weather sites in FL, AZ, CA or domed stadiums to play the regular season and playoffs,they could play the World Series in December. They wouldn't have to cut down the schedule much, if any.
Or perhaps that's just wishful thinking on my part.
ReplyDeletePerhaps they should take over a small island somewhere. Call it "Sports Island" build a full on Olympic complex complete with beds for support staff and TV crews and hold all of the sports seasons there.
ReplyDeleteThey could test for the virus at the airport, have a quarantine part of the island and basically seal it off from the world. Until a small crack in the food supply chain kills them all.
At least we'd get an MLB season, the NBA and NHL playoffs and an Olympics out of it. Because, that's what's important!
The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. And when the masses need entertainment and that need dovetails with the needs of corporate billionaires, well...
There are new athletes being born everyday. (Until social distancing has us all schtupping robots.) So we can be guaranteed seasons for well, seasons to come. Plus, as the island will have ALL of the top athletes in the world it would end up being a major breeding experiment and in 20 years... Super Athletes!
I just want to point out right now that I am kidding. For the most part. I'm sure the idea, or a movie treatment of the idea is on someone's desk.
Until then... GO MONKEYS!
Doug K.
If they can pull it off, I'm all for it. Even a season of, say, 18 games against the other 4 teams in each division, along with 4-6 against one inter-league rival—the Mets for us, of course—followed by the playoffs, would be all right.
ReplyDeletePerhaps they could even fill a nearby hotel with all the leading baseball annies. Think of THAT competition!
One interesting benefit: with all the in-depth, comprehensive medical monitoring going on, nobody could be juicing.
I hate to be such a Gloomy Gus, especially when there are so many intelligent, gifted, dedicated, and funny dudes here, but let me just dump a few facts on your from my corner of the globe.
ReplyDeleteWe began total nationwide lockdown more than a month ago (and before that there were strict restrictions in the westernmost parts of Austria where there is a lot of skiing and also the location of the Brenner Pass, the easiest route through the Alps from Italy, which brought the first two cases of the virus to Austria in late February).
As of last Wednesday small shops (limited by their square meters) are allowed to open with reduced hours, and to enter you must first by sprayed, masked, and gloved, and the number of people in any one store (or standing outside) is strictly controlled. You must also wear a mask to ride any public transportation or face being tossed off and paying a huge fine.
The next announcement will come on 30 May. We are not a big sports country (except for all the winter stuff; Vienna’s soccer teams totally suck) so that’s not as much of a concern as music, and already the Salzburg Easter Festival and Pfingsten (Whitsun) Festival have been cancelled, and the main summer Salzburg Festival (18 July through the end of August, and 2020 marks its 100th anniversary) is putting off any statements but it is highly unlikely that they will be able to go on as scheduled. And, of course, Vienna’s three world-class opera companies, four world-class symphony orchestras, both concert hall complexes, and all cinemas have been closed since mid-March, and are hoping – but not certain of – reopening in September.
And this is where we stand with national rate for new infections for the past five days at under 1& and declining daily.
Next door, Angela Merkel announced last week that all sports and entertainment events are cancelled until at least 31 August, and they have pretty damned good numbers when it comes to new infections and deaths.
I honestly don’t see anything realistically happening in the USA until such time as the country can unify and fucking STAY IN PLACE and wear masks when doing essential chores. These idiots staging “freedom” riots in Michigan and Ohio and other places sicken me.
Note, too, that Broadway is closed through the end of June and their lockdown is expected to be extended, despite some levelling-off in NYC.
I really should shut up now. Please: all of you – TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELVES AND EVERYONE AROUND YOU!
CORRECTION:
ReplyDeleteAnd this is where we stand with national rate for new infections for the past five days at under 1% and declining daily.
Yes, but Austria, you are forgetting one critical thing: We are insane!!!!
ReplyDeleteSeriously, I don't think it will really happen, either. Looks like I will be stuck in Virtual Baseball World for awhile.
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