A year older and more fragile, the Yankees look like another wild card contender

It's Crunch Time, time to lay down cards, to ponder the lost year and do what our spiritual leader says cannot be done: 

To predict baseball, Suzyn...  

It seems impossible, but here we are: We survived the pandemic, for now. We watched a dwarf season played before posterboard fans who could not boo, not even for a starting catcher who batted .146. We saw another October apocalypse from a closer who cannot close. We heard our owner continuously claim to be the only billionaire on Earth to lose money. It's over, supposedly. We'll flash our Excelsior Cards and pretend everything is as it was.

For the 2021 Yankees, normalcy means chasing another AL Wild Card. 

I predict 88 victories and second-place in the AL East, five games behind the Blue Jays, and a pop fly ahead of Tampa and Boston. 

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but in this millennium, baseball has become a game of dynamic youngsters - players between 20 and 25 - and the Yankees simply fall on the gray side of that actuary table. 

Once again, pitching will kill us. Our rotation - with three full-scale reclamation projects - Corey Kluber, Jameson Tailion and Jordan Montgomery - is intriguing, if you like casinos. But never did a staff more need one more workhorse - one more certainty in a clubhouse full of dice rolls. But our owner set a budget and refused to budge. The Yankees will gamble on three recovering starters. And that's too many. 

Likewise, the once-vaunted bullpen looks increasingly thin, reflecting the steady decline of Aroldis Chapman. His radar numbers have diminished, while late-inning studs on opposing teams have become common. He no longer possesses overwhelming command. He seldom escapes an inning without drama. Now and then, he gets lit up. With Zack Britton out until June/July, the Yankees will lose late-inning games, because dominoes will drop, and they will have no one to put out fires. 

Once again, our batting order will lean on several key players - Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit - who have historically failed to last full seasons. For some reason, we seem to think they will stay healthy. Meanwhile, Gio Urshela is recovering from elbow surgery, Clint Frazier still runs into walls, and Gary Sanchez remains an enigma. 

We have no Triple A-level players on the verge of making an impact. (Sorry, folks, but Chris Gittens is not ready.)

Most of  all, our season hinges on Gleyber Torres. If he can play SS and hit like a 2B, he could win MVP and become a premier player. If he fails at either, we have a problem. It's another major gamble, without a Plan B.

I know it's wrong to blame injuries for lost seasons. Injuries, like bad trades, are a part of the game. But MLB's spending restrictions are beginning to crush whatever financial advantages the Yankees once had, and our owner shows no interest in restoring the Yankee legacy. He seems more compelled to prove his business acumen, to wrangle profits out of the franchise. That philosophy will be tested in 2021.

It's easy this year to imagine the Yankees as NYC's "other" team. (In fact, they are already lagging behind the Mets in back pages, something that I have not seen since the count began three years ago. The media of Gotham may already have moved on.) Right now, it's sad to say, but the most exciting aspect of the Yankees is a relentlessly hyped 18-year-old bonus baby, Jasson Dominiquez, who will surely not make an appearance until 2023. 

Who on this team gives the kind of hope that cannot be instantly dashed by a hamstring or shoulder twinge? Sure, we all want to see the 2017 version of Aaron Judge, reborn and ready to reclaim his courtroom. But we have too many players on the shaky sides of their careers. The Yankee talent curve might be a year behind crest. It will be a long, hard season, Suzyn. Stay healthy...