Not that we needed one, but it's another reminder that the Yankees are not the gold standard of MLB, as they once were. And they will likely never again command that status, as long as Hal runs the franchise.
What's unclear is whether Judge will give the Yankees a final shot at matching or beating another team's offer. There are conflicting accounts of how that decision will come down. Probably, it won't matter. If the Dodgers or Giants offer crazy-stupid money, it's hard to imagine Hal following suit.
In case you're wondering... yes, I suppose the Yankees could spend an extra $50 million in Judge ransom on the likes of Cody Bellinger (19 HR and .210 last season) and/or Justin Turner (13 HR and .278 last season, who turns 38), and/or Trea Turner (21 HR and .298, who will be 30.) All three would still not match Judge's HR total.
Finishing second has is consequences.
With 94.5 million coming off the Yankee books, Cheapskate Hal has no excuses. He has more than enough to re-sign Judge and Rizzo and still have plenty to spend on another European soccer team.
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ReplyDeleteThere's good contracts, and there's bad contracts.
If you look at the top 12 highest paid players for 2023, because there are three tied for 10th, you'll see some stiffs in there. Rendon, Bauer, Strasburg, Cabrera The Elder, our own Man Of Wood. Throw in Scherzer, who's really good but who you would like to actually be good in the post season and who isn't worth $43M, and even Cole (see Scherzer but take out $43M and insert $36M). Besides Judge the big free agents this year are deGrom, Correa, and Verlander.
You have to figure someone's throwing big money ($45M?) at deGrom, who's been good in the regular season AND the post season but who's arm has been creaking the past two years. That's a chancy contract. Verlander is old; he'll get 4, maybe 5 years. Correa is good, but not THAT good. I'm thinking deGrom, Scherzer, and Verlander are likely the three highest paid per season next year but with shorter contracts than Judge.
So what the hell? I have no idea. If Hal signs Judge at $37M for 8 years he'll make more than Trout but less than Rendon and maybe less than Correa if someone overpays for him. The Rendon contract is a bad contract and if Correa gets more than 37 that's a bad contract too. I'm not sure Judge takes that deal but it does give him the opportunity for one more contract at age 38. I think that's a fair offer, plus or minus a couple don't-get-outbid-by-million and if the Dodgers or Giants or whomever blow past that well I don't know. On the one hand it leaves a big-ass hole in the lineup (to go with all the other big-ass holes) that will have to be filled by, shit, Cashman, but on the other hand if Fiscal Man spends big on Judge those other lineup holes will just stay holes or will be filled in by, shit, Cashman, with new holes.
Conclusion: screwed if we do, screwed if we don't. Man it's hard to like this team.
Would not be a shock.
ReplyDeleteCody Bellinger is the Gary Sanchez of the Dodgers.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather have Clay Bellinger.
I love the Yankees, but there are a lot of other gals out there looking a lot better than my honey.
If Judge goes...
I was thinking that Cody Bellinger is just the player that Yankee management would bring in, probably overpaying at 30 Mil per year. A guy who barely hit .200. And in 2023 he turns into the next Joey Gallo.
ReplyDeleteAnd they'll be unable to sign Judge because HAL won't match the 50 Mill per year that some west coast team offers.
@Mildred Lopez, I don't see Judge getting only 37 mil for 8 years. If DeGrom is going to get 45 mil per year, I don't see how Judge wouldn't get at least that or more. Someone will probably offer Judge 50 mil X 8-10 years.
I have a subscription to the Athletic but for those that don't:
ReplyDeleteGo to archive.today
Copy this: https://theathletic.com/3772405/2022/11/10/aaron-judge-free-agency-teams-ranking/
Paste into the red bordered url search box at the top.
Hit "enter" and read!
You can do this with any subscription firewall.
Thanks, Carl Weitz, that was very helpful!
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for Murdoch media to start running "Cashman is the biggest loser" headlines. That'll show 'em.
ReplyDeleteLet's begin with the very reasonable assumption that Judge will never approach 60 hrs. again. It is certainly possible to reproduce 40 to 50 hrs via F/A. And in the postseason, well, a .139 BA with a 45% K rate can easily be exceeded...
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to dump on Judge, who I like. What I don't like is the prospect of a team of overpaid 35 y/o's rattling around on the field, which is what we will soon be. However, we all know that Cashman is not capable of putting together a strong, flexible roster, and simply plugging in younger players everywhere will probably not be good enough. I still believe Judge will re-sign with the Yanks at around 40M for 8 years, and the team we wil see in '23 will be very similar to last year's. We will probably win less than 99 games, cop a watered down WC, and endure another embarrassing early playoff exit.
@ Horace...my pleasure!
ReplyDeleteGood points, AA. Whoever signs Judge will be lucky to get4 or 5 good years from him.
ReplyDeleteHere's my prediction: Judge will re-sign with the Yankees but it will be with a 3 year opt out. In this way, Hal will structure the deal whereby he pays him more the first 4-5 seasons (if for argument he signs for 8 years) avoids a PR nightmare complete with personal attacks from the NY press and then hopes he does opt out. For Judge, it allows him a window to see if Hal really wants to win. It works best for both sides.
Sorry, I meant BTR, not AA.
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