Realistically, what can the Yankees expect from Oswald, Oswaldo and Anthony?

Barring an Cat 5 change of heart within the Circle of Four - (Brian I, Brian II, Omar and the Hen) - the '23 Yanks will place their fate in the hands of a rookie. He will need to beat another rookie, and if he fails, he will be replaced by yet another.

Entering spring training, Oswald Peraza is our leading SS candidate, assuming he beats out Oswaldo Cabrera. If both falter, next up is Anthony Volpe. We can talk up Aaron Judge and the rotation - have at it! - but the '23 Yankees will win or lose based on their infield, and perhaps we should ponder the massive gamble that looms. 

Let's start with Peraza, 22, who looks pudgy for a SS. He stands 6'0" and 200 pounds, a fire hydrant, maybe a future 3B. He bats RH - bummer, because the Yanks already tilt to that side. Last September, in a micro Yankee sample - 49 ABs - he hit .306 with a HR and 2 SBs. 

But overall, between Scranton and his cup of coffee, Peraza batted .259 with 19 HRs and 33 SBs. He fanned 100 times - once every four ABs - with a rather mundane OPS of .778. 

This season, Baseball Reference projects Peraza to hit .265 with 6 HRs in about 250 at bats. How are these numbers derived? Witchcraft. Voodoo. I dunno. But those are the numbers - far closer to an IKF than A-Rod, eh? Just sayin'.

Cabrera, 23, is also rather muscular for a SS - 6'0", 200 lbs. His precocious entrance onto the NYC stage last summer endeared him to the bleacher crowd. Though mostly a 2B, he played six positions with the Yankees - even 1B - never embarrassed himself, not once. He switch hits. He's being discussed as our LF. 

But last year's numbers at Scranton were rather - well - meh-y. Cabrera hit .262 with 8 HRs and 10 SBs. (With the Death Barge, he hit .247 with 6 HRs.) He flopped in our postseason, despite one big HR which he enjoyed a bit too long at home plate. Houston deleted him. 

Baseball Refence projects Oswaldo to hit .253 with 9 HRs. Yeah, those numbers are bogus!, an outrage!, a witch hunt! But they point to a realism that many Yank fans prefer to ignore: These guys didn't exactly rule Triple A. They're young, they'll improve, but neither this season will be Francisco Lindor or Carlos Correa, or even Jeremy Pena. 

Which brings us to Volpe, the alpha dog of the farm. Chosen in the first round of the 2019 draft, he signed a $2.7 million contract and went to the Appalachian Rookie League - where he hit a Hicksian .215. Next came the Covid year washout, when Volpe never saw one pitch. He was a delusion on his way to becoming an afterthought, like most of our first round picks in the late teens.

Then came 2021. That year, Volpe hit .294 with 27 HRs, rising to one of the top prospects in baseball. Last year, he started slowly, heated up, then cooled. Between Double and Triple A, he hit .249 with 21 HRs and - get this - 50 stolen bases. Yes, fifty SBs; the kid can fucking motor. He's listed at 21 - 5'11" and 180 lbs - a natural SS? 

But if the Oswalds fail, will Volpe be ready?   

That's the question, Noble Yorick. Each of these kids has a bright future. But their primes could be three to five years away. Last year, none dominated their levels.

Yankee fans love the idea of a rookie SS who becomes a great leader. It happened in the mid-90s - nearly 30 years ago. It's still wondrous to imagine. But we better be willing to accept a rough spring and summer. Nothing in the fossil record suggests otherwise. To think a star will simply rise - no problems - that's delusional.