Despite all the earthquakes, derailments, mass shootings, airplane incidents, political bullshit and inter-Kardashian beefs, the Yankees will start up almost exactly where they left off last October, with Josh Donaldson at 3B, Aaron Hicks in LF and the cast of Scream VI at bullpen closer. The bases will be expanded, a pitch clock will quicken play, and over-shifts will be banned, though wherever he is, Joey Gallo will still suck.
So, what have we learned? Honestly, not much...
1. The biggest surprises in camp have been the excessively hyped Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez. In other words, at least for now, the Yankee YES propaganda has been - gulp - fulfilled. Wow. Who expected that?
Clearly, not the Yankees. Before Volpe saw a pitch, they all but guaranteed SS this season to Oswald Peraza, who has been slowed by a bum paw. And despite tape measure HRs and an impending sense of beasthood, nobody in the brain trust has suggested that Dominguez would make the team - even with a sinkhole in LF.
What a burst of excitement we'd feel if the Yankees simply said, "Fukkit!" and came north with Volpe at SS and The Martian in LF. Dear God, they would own the tabloids and capture Gotham from - the Knicks?. But - nah - won't happen. It'll be Donaldson at third, Hicks in left and a funeral procession through the month of April. You can't kill the bogeyman.
2. We haven't yet suffered our regular wave of injuries, which visits Tampa each March like the red tide. The casualty count began with Frankie Montas going full Pavano . Recent chirps that he might return late this year smack of Zack Britton, who was always coming back last season, until it became clear that he was simply an old guy trying to score his next free agent contract. (He's still out there, by the way. I'm surprised we haven't heard much.)
Tommy Kahnle recently tweaked a bicep, which means he will miss opening day. Considering his track record, who would be surprised if he misses April? And then there is the foot injury to Peraza - perhaps the most worrisome setback of the spring. We all assumed Peraza would play SS. What if he misses a month?
3. Somewhere, somehow, a trade is coming. You can feel it on the wind. All the happy talk about Willie Calhoun? Forget it. They'll trade for somebody. Unless Peraza is shut down, it will almost certainly involve Isiah Kiner-Falefa. You get the feeling that Pittsburgh is pivoting around the future of LF Brian Reynolds, angling to get the best deal. That might mean waiting until July. Also, Gleyber Torres looks like a future former Yankee. There are too many infielders for too few slots.
Which makes it all the more maddening that this team clings to Donaldson and Hicks, like an Antiques Roadshow patron refusing to believe his portrait of Lincoln was painted in China. They won't get anything for either in a trade - not now, not later. They have Donaldson this year, and Hicks through 2026. The longer we go with them, the more NYC will be owned by the Mets.
We could be entering a new Yankee era. Instead, we are clinging to an old one. For how long? That is the biggest question of 2023.
I've heard that some teams, like, say, the Red Sox, have actually just released players who still have active, big money contracts in place. That means the team just eats the money to get rid of the millstone around their neck.
ReplyDeleteI'm laughing at the idea that the Yankees would actually do such a thing.
But really, what do you gain by blocking better players from the roster in order to spend another year showing that you made a dumb trade or signing? You won't get your money's worth, your team will be worse than it could be, and you just put your ineptitude on display for everyone to see. Even while you spin like crazy to deny it.
It's irrational. So is the front office more than incompetent? Can we add nutty as a fruitcake? (I know the answer, you know the answer, but just saying.)
I thought that Antiques Roadshow was the name of our starting DH?
ReplyDelete@JM, Yeah, it's irrational, if you're actually trying to win. This Yankee club, is not trying to win, it's entirely obsessed with its finances/risk management. Therefore, it's perfectly rational for this club.
ReplyDeleteDuque, "an Antiques Roadshow patron refusing to believe his portrait of Lincoln was painted in China"
ReplyDeleteHah Hah, good one!
Hammer, I have to admit, I do not understand the financial angle beyond staying under a tax threshold. Of course, I don't understand the whole idea of "playing the money," either. Is it to save face? Hoping the overpaid, underperforming player will magically have a great year and prove how right Cashman was? Thinking that name players on the field improve the box office, even if fans boo them?
ReplyDeleteFinance was never my strong suit.
@JM, Okay, that is a very common question. To put it as simply as possible, they want to just keep kicking the can down the street. They don't want to do anything that rocks the boat. They don't want to win a championship. But they don't want to bottom out and finish in last place, either. They want to keep finishing in first place or as the wild card, but they prefer to be kicked out in the first round or in the wild card game.
ReplyDeleteWhy would they NOT want to win? Well, it represents a risk to their finances. A championship will throw a wrench into their computations. Undoubtedly, it would increase profits. That would mean paying more in income taxes. It could also mean giving bigger raises to all the players. If you consider that HAL owns not just the Yankees, but many smaller companies and entities all tied to the Yankee brand, well, it's going to be complicated. Only HAL's accountants know the bottom line of the figures. They'll decide when they want to win it all. And that year, they'll go for it.
Why would they NOT want to play rookies? I'm not a baseball GM rules genius, but I'd say they're trying to keep young players under control for as long as possible. That's part of the risk management. They're trying to avoid starting that six year clock of free agency from starting. That way, they can milk the young players out of the best years of their careers, whilst preventing them from becoming free agents for as long as possible.
Why would they NOT want to get rid of lousy old players? There would be three reasons for this. (1) As explained above, they don't really want to win. And keeping bad players on the roster ensures that they won't win a championship. (2) As explained above, they want to keep kicking the can down the street. So they don't want to just dump a player or even trade him away. If they traded Stanton, that's a lot of money coming off the liability side of the ledger. That means short term profits would skyrocket. They don't want that. They want stability. They actually want to keep paying these bloated contracts to decrease their income tax liability. (3) Getting rid of old guys would mean they'd have to play the rookies. They don't like playing rookies, for the reason explained above.
Anyway, that is my theory about why this Yankee club does what it does. I used to think that it was all because Cashman was stupid. He may be stupid at baseball, but I don't think he's stupid at finances. And the latter is all HAL cares about.
ReplyDeleteJM, at this point "playing the money" can't be about saving face. We can all see the face, it's an ugly face not worth saving, so this has to be about Cashman's refusal to admit the Donaldson and Hicks contracts and signing IKF for another go-around were mistakes - they were! I think he lives deep inside his own head and many in the organization, maybe even the Boonehead himself believe Cashman to be an idiot but he's a long-tenured idiot, feared but not necessarily respected by all within the organization because he has the ear of Bottom-Line Hal whose main interest is the financial Yankees and not the baseball Yankees. And as long as the financial Yankees keep humming along there's no reason to take any chances that could possibly shake things up and jeopardize the bottom line. Chances like playing the kids, which is why we'll see the "investments" on opening day and not younger, faster, more aggressive players like Volpe and Waldo.
Unfortunately, the players who look the best will be in the minors. The Yankees need to keep trotting out players with low batting averages.
ReplyDeleteJM, you probably know what I’m going to say - yes it has to do the team putting known, veteran players on the field to goose attendance. It’s roughly analogous to the paying public (especially those in the “premium” seats - no working class trash allowed) being more inclined to pay to watch “stars”, so called. Beyond that, and this is somewhat guesswork, I’d say the Yankees are an extremely conservative, buttoned down operation with little imagination or appetite for risk talking, even to the point of holding back younger players. As we’ve rehashed a hundred times, results on the field are secondary to the results in the cash box.
ReplyDeleteMontas admits he was injured at trade time.
ReplyDeleteCa$hole scores another perfect trade.
I'd say Hammer's explanation is essentially correct.
ReplyDeleteOh, I don't think HAL would mind winning every so many years—say, 10-15. But above all, I think he's trying to create this steady state of contending without winning it all—which would likely entail big contracts to players so popular he can't deny them.
But there is a crazy part, too—or simply an incompetent part.
If the Yankees are really so risk averse, why let Cashman take such stunning and stupid risks with the contracts he hands out to the likes of Sevvy, Hicks, and Stanton? I have the feeling that as long as it is all more-or-less inside the salary cap, HAL doesn't care...
Ok, let's look at this from a different angle. Hicks WILL be traded at some point to keep him from acquiring 10/5 rights. Volpe had roughly 80-90 and in AAA last year with meh results. Sending him AAA for a month or so seasons him, and delays his free agency. When he comes back Donaldson goes, maybe in a trade. So figure that by the end of May the Brain that Wouldn't Die can figure out what the team needs. BTW, Reynolds is a nice player, but hardly worth the hype. All the metrics showed that his defense regressed significantly. Maybe he had some nagging injuries, maybe he's protecting his body with free agency approaching, maybe the little things are catching up. Finally, we have reason to believe that the Martian just might be for real. As much as I tend to be sceptical about things in general, I believe that our biggest worry will be the health of the pitching staff. The positional situation will sort itself out.
ReplyDelete@Hoss, How to explain the Severino, Hicks, Stanton contracts if Yanks are risk averse? I see no difficulty with that.
ReplyDeleteAs you say, HAL doesn't care as long as they're inside the salary cap. They're trying to keep the payroll more or less at the same level. So from time to time, they dole out ridiculous contracts. Perhaps the reasoning is slightly different for each player. Severino, they thought they were getting a good deal by locking him up for awhile. Hicks, the simply wanted to burn some money to keep the payroll level. Stanton, they wanted to bring in a big name to put fannies in the seats. With all these contracts, notice too that they did a marvelous job of keeping the club away from a World Series Championship. And, as you say, there certainly can be some craziness, incompetence & stupidity thrown in. But exclude the baseball analysis from the financial analysis, I think it pretty much makes logical sense inside their diseased brains.
Bottom line, whenever some millstone's contract finally expires, you can bet that they'll bring in a new millstone to balance out that ledger, keep the payroll stable. They don't want to tank the payroll. It could cause short term profits to zoom up.