From IT IS HIGH Commentator Hammer of God, who hereby ends the debate on Aaron Judge batting second...
From commenter Above Average
I finally completed my bean counting for the #2 hitter strategy. How many times did batting your "best hitter" in the #2 slot get him one more at bat? Here are the results for the 2023 Yankees:
The #2 hitter got up as the last potential Yankee out of the game a total of 23 times. It happened twice in the same game on 9/10/2023, 9th inning and 11th inning. It was Judge 14 times; Rizzo 3 times; Stanton 3 times; Torres 2 times; and Cabrera 1 time (as a defensive replacement hitting for Stanton).
It happened 16 times when it "mattered", meaning the score was plus or minus 3 runs. But one of the 16 times, the #2 hitter had been relieved for a defensive replacement (7/15/2023 Cabrera for Stanton).
Out of the 23 total times, there were 9 walks and 14 outs. Yes, that's right, not once did the strategy result in a hit!!!
Out of the 16 times when it "mattered", there were 7 walks and 9 outs. 5 of these 7 walks were intentional walks.
So all of the things that we talked about were on exhibition. In big situations, the other team was not likely to pitch to our "best hitter". The intentional walk was a huge weapon. In late game crucial situations, the other team was likely to pitch its best relievers, which resulted in a big ZERO for us at the plate. It exemplified why it is more difficult to hit in clutch situations. It showed the importance of taking the lead earlier in the game.
There had been talk about the #2 hitter getting 50 more at bats over the course of the season. That didn't happen here in 2023. It was only 23. But for those 23 at bats, of which only 16 were "important", you reduced the chances of your best hitter coming up with men on base in the 1st inning over 162 games!!!
So how much did this strategy hurt them in the 1st inning? Well, I only bothered to count the home runs by the #2 hitter in the 1st inning. There were 13 home runs by Yankee #2 hitters in the 1st innings. 9 by Judge; 2 by Stanton; 2 by Torres.
Of Judge's 9 homers, 7 were solo. 1 by Stanton was solo. Both Torres homers were 2 run homers.
It only illustrates the stupidity of putting your biggest home run hitter in the #2 slot. 7 out of 9 homers by Judge were solo!!! I don't know how many 3 run homers Yankee hitters got this year during any part of the game, but it couldn't have been many. That's a lot of wasted power in 162 1st innings, turning potential 2 or 3 run homers into solo homers. And this is just counting the home runs, not the base hits.
Thanks, Duque!
ReplyDeleteNext year, I am going to keep a running journal of the #2 hitter strategy. Every so often, maybe per quarter of the season, give the updated stats on it. That way, I won't have to go through the whole year's games at the end. Whew ... after going through 20 or 30 box scores and play by play lists, my eyeballs were buggin' out and my brain was loggin' out!
Blasted - Hammer - This is absolutely spot on! (even more so when revisited again)
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is wrong with these pea brained, bean counting, flea flicking schmos that insist on plunging our beloved team into the septic ether of another lost winter of sadness and despair!
Earlier in the day, the great JM of X-File Avatarville asked a question that also had been recently oscillating inside my pulsating cranium:
"Whatever happened to the two veteran advisors or consultants or whatever they were/are. Sabean and Minaya. What is it they do, exactly? What is it they did this season? Nothing? Anything?"
Indeed!
Right there is all the audit power one would think that one formerly great baseball franchise would ever need.
One can only hope that some intelligence rises to the top this week in Tampa.
BUTT I just don't have enough breath in me to hold it.
Now its been reported that Cole is also backing the retention (and/or intestinal blockage) of Aaron BoooooNE).
golly
What a shame Mary Jane
What a shame Mary Jane
What a shame Mary Jane had a pain at the party
Great work, Hammer!
ReplyDeleteI think this should count as Part II of the IIHIIFIIC Independent Audit of the Yankees. Part III should be the query about WTF Sabean and Minaya are doing here.
Even more unbelievable, I saw a blurb during a FOX game, maybe sometime in September, that Judge had 9 homers, 11 RBI in the 1st innings this year. FOX meant to imply that Judge was capable of big power in the 1st inning, but I saw that as a cup half empty. Because he had 9 home runs, but ONLY 11 RBI!
ReplyDeleteI went through the results of the first two batters in the 1st inning for the entire year. Judge ended up with only the 9 HR and 11 RBI in the 1st innings. And believe it or not, the 11 RBI were all from the 9 home runs! Because he had 7 solo homers, plus 2 two-run homers. He had a total of 24 hits in the 1st innings: 9 HR, 13 singles and 2 doubles. So NONE of the base hits drove in the leadoff man.
That's a product of hitting #2. (There was exactly one game where he hit #3, and plus he missed one-third of the season with the toe injury.) Somebody's got to be on base for your big hitter to drive him in, and that was hardly ever the case in the 1st inning.
More elucidating stats:
ReplyDeleteSo there were 13 games where the Yankee #2 hitter hit a home run in the 1st inning. They won 10 out of the 13.
I can even tell you the three that they lost: Game 14, 4/14 (Volpe leadoff HR; Judge HR. But lost 4-3); Game 92, 7/14 (Sean Casey's first game as hitting coach, Stanton two run HR. But lost 7-2 to terrible Colorado); Game 127, 8/24 (Judge solo HR. But lost 6-5). They got trounced by Colorado in that 7/14 loss, but the two one run games were easily winnable. And maybe the results would have been different if Judge hits #3 or even cleanup.
Anyway, the 10-3 record when their #2 hitter homers in the 1st inning certainly tends to prove the old adage to jump out to a lead and hold it. All the more reason to put your best hitter in the #3 slot, where there is a much higher probability that he will hit with at least one man on base in the 1st inning. Maybe he can even drive in a run every now and then with something called a "BASE HIT" with men on base.
Hammer, "best" hitter presupposes by it's very nature that there are OTHER HITTERS ON THE TEAM. These Our 2023 New York Yankees had no other hitters. None. Nada zip zero zilch. Doesn't matter where you hit Judge. He's coming up with the bases empty and me screaming at the game in frustration.
ReplyDeleteThat is my analysis.
Fuck Boone CashBrain Hal.
Add this to the "audit" - the high priests and priestesses of the Bronx have determined that, in addition to the other failings of intelligence, statistics and general baseball knowledge, the Yankees organization is also COMPLETELY SPIRITUALLY BANKRUPT. They don't care about their ancestors and worship only mammon.
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ReplyDeleteTremendous post I meant to comment on it when I read it in the comments of another post
This is a free audit for the edjits that are running the Yankees into the ground
Not that they will have noticed it the front office brain trust seems to be totally immune to anything out of their stat obsessed Ivy League bubble
@ TheWinWarblist, Absolutely true, there was only one real hitter on the entire team, Judge. To that extent, certainly, it's true that it didn't matter a whole lot where he hit.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I was investigating the #2 hitter strategy, which theorem posits that, by hitting your "best hitter" in the #2 slot, that he will come up to hit in crucial situations late in the game and that this will happen about 50 times over the course of the year. That theory just didn't pan out, at least this year. Only 23 times did the #2 hitter come up as the last potential out of the game for the Yankee lineup. (This can happen in the 8th inning, 9th inning, or extra innings. And it can even happen multiple times during the same game.) But it only happened 23 times total. And of those, only 16 were with the score at plus or minus 3 runs. And the results were truly atrocious: Zero hits, 14 outs, 9 walks, 5 of them intentional walks.
It might be worth looking at the probability calculations in the 1st inning as well. If you have Torres (OBP .347) and McKinney (OBP .320) hitting in front of Judge, what is the probability that at least one of the Torres/McKinney combo would be on base for Judge in the 1st inning?
Well, taking the inverse of their on base percentages yields the probability that each will make out: .653 and .680 and then multiplying those yields the probability that both made out: .444 and then taking the inverse of that number yields the probability that AT LEAST ONE of them is on base for Judge: .556!!!
So if Judge hits #2 with Torres and McKinney batting 1 and 2, then you have greatly increased the probability of Judge hitting with AT LEAST one man on base in the 1st inning. If Torres hits #1 and Judge hits #2, the probability of Torres being on base in front of Judge is only .347. But by sticking McKinney in there, you've increased the chances to a whopping .556. 35 percent vs. 56 percent, which would you want?
Now, I know that this is assuming that certain possibilities are not being accounted for. Like the probability of McKinney hitting into a double play. Or the probability that Torres commits hara kiri on the basepaths, as is his want. But these are fairly rare occurrences. And I am merely illustrating the basic point that putting your best hitter in the #3 slot increases the probability that he will hit with someone on base, as opposed to hitting #2.
ReplyDeleteHammer:
Your analysis, while brilliant, is flawed. You never once mentioned the all important Exit Velo of the #2 hitter.
Kidding. Thanks for this excellent work.
@ LBJ, LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks, everybody!
Th hammer to the head of the analytics geeks.
ReplyDelete