Tuesday, February 13, 2024

You say PECOTA, I say Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

So Baseball Prospectus has this thing they do (not "That Thing You Do!") that you're probably familiar with. Here's their explanation:

PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;

2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;

3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.

They also use PECOTA (not to be confused with Ricotta) for entire teams in order to "predict" (not actually a prediction, they point out) the final season standings. From what I could understand, this is based on players performing according to their "normal" (not necessarily normal) performance, which for the Yankees is kind of dumb since half the veterans will miss up to 100 games or more due to breaking down.

However, this is what their UNIVAC has spit out for the 2024 season.


Is that readable? Readable-ish? Hope so. We're projected as division winners, with Baltimore somehow projected to be fourth. I know, bizarre in both cases, but Boston is in last place, so there might be some truth to this divisional possibility (not really a possibility, imo).

At any rate, if everyone on our team plays up to their "normal" level, we win in a cakewalk, way, way, way ahead in the percent chance of winning the East (but not actually making it to the Series, with abysmal odds).

By the way, this is a cakewalk. I doubt anyone on the Yankees will do this as they come down the stretch, but I dunno. Maybe Boone. Maybe Hal, wearing his kinky boots.


Oh, and by the way again, PECOTA seems really full of shit, but that's algorithms for ya. And AI, which runs on algos and data mining and other unperfected tech. Just never know what kind of crap it'll churn out. Though I suppose we'll be seeing a lot of it in an election year.

Anyway, enjoy our 94.5 simulated wins! Whoo.




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10 comments:

  1. AboveAverageFebruary 13, 2024 at 2:37 PM

    Thank you so very much for that information, JM!

    Love me some ricotta - especially in a lasagna or some cheezeCAKE, or artfully mixed into some zesty blueberry panCAKES!

    Remember:

    The greater the AI
    The greater the SIGH

    ReplyDelete
  2. HoraceClarke66February 13, 2024 at 2:47 PM

    There it is, no need to play the games now! Just declare the Yanks the division champs and get on with the playoffs!

    What a bunch of nonsense. Interesting to see the cakewalk, though.

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  3. HoraceClarke66February 13, 2024 at 2:51 PM

    So, from the earlier post on what the season will turn on...yes, Volpe is very likely what the season will turn on. And I'm not expecting him to improve.

    And yes, JM, this would be the perfect time to swap out Torres for a pitcher, then ink Monty or Snell. Same with Vertigo. Trade him on, and sign Bellinger. And yes, Gio would be a great pick-up.

    Will any of this happen? No, it will not. Like God on the seventh day, Brian Cashman is resting. Or at least planning out his next media strategy, to convince the feeble minds covering NY sports that he has done amazing work.

    As for Pecota, wasn't he an infielder? Or, I dunno, the territory one heads out for?

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  4. Mildred LopezFebruary 13, 2024 at 4:37 PM


    Named after Bill Pecota.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Doctor TFebruary 13, 2024 at 5:50 PM

    Yeah, no need to play the games. Let's just cut to the chase. The Dodgers have a 20.6% chance of winning the WS. Atlanta has a 17.9% chance, the Astros have a 9.5% chance and the Yankees have 9.8% chance of winning the World Series.

    So, business as usual for Hal and Brian. The Yankees are just competitive enough to hope for a playoff berth and will probably be beaten by one of those teams somewhere between now and the World Series. Probably sooner.

    Of course, using my special "I've seen this too many times" algorithm, half the Yankee opening day roster are on the IL by August, Brian has traded more youth for players that break on arrival and untraded Railriders are wearing Yankee uniforms in September. Meanwhile, Boone spins this as a success, Hal pats Brian on the back, says 'a job well done' and the cash register goes, Ka-ching!

    Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Doctor TFebruary 13, 2024 at 5:51 PM

    Correction, Astros have an 11.5% chance of winning the World Series.

    ReplyDelete
  7. BTR999February 13, 2024 at 6:15 PM

    As for the bucket, Pawtucket.

    ReplyDelete
  8. el duqueFebruary 13, 2024 at 7:36 PM

    No joke about Abe Pecota?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Rufus T. FireflyFebruary 13, 2024 at 7:46 PM

    Johnny Lasagna approves of the ricotta.

    You say pecota, I say horseshit. It's even lumpier than ricotta.

    Oh, and fuck HAL.

    We now return to your regularly scheduled bitching.

    Speaking of bitches, I am extremely disappointed that the harpy didn't fall out of the skybox and have her robot parts scattered all over the field. I'm still hoping for a tragic (sic) blimp accident.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Yankee Daddy RogerFebruary 15, 2024 at 1:06 PM

    Correction: Team projections based upon not Pecota but PEYOTE. PERFORMANCE EVALUATOR YOWZA'S Overaged Talent Acquisition

    The Yankees should spring train in Arizona. Plenty of PEYOTTE to make interesting the rest and rehab.

    ReplyDelete

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