Ten Yankee predictions for 2024.
1. We will win 86 games, one shy of the wild card. The reason? Ninety percent of baseball is pitching, pitching, pitching... and Yankees just don't have enough, enough, enough...
2. Carlos Rodon - aka "The Mothman" - will win 10 games and spend much of the second half in mothballs. Neither ace nor pariah, he'll pitch decently until an injury takes him down. In other words, the new normal.
3. Ditto Aaron Judge. (Note the recurring theme.) Judge will hit 35 HRs, but we'll be lucky to get 120 games from him. Am I being negative? Well, why would we expect the Yankees - one year older - to escape the tweaks and strains that have wrecked the last 15 seasons?
4. Anthony Volpe will improve, but not to Jeterian status. Sadly, that will make him, to some, a disappointment. The fact is, no one can meet the expectations that are regularly placed on the top Yankee prospect. We saw it with Gleyber. We saw it with The Martian. We'll see it with Spencer Jones. This is an existential Yankee problem: The hype machine vs. the mentality of youngsters. I think Volpe will hit .250 with about 20 HRs. Not bad, but by September, they'll be hyping Roderick Arias as the SS of the future.
5. Giancarlo Stanton will ride high in April, be shot down in May. He'll tweak something. This is the easiest prediction on this list. Seriously, does anybody doubt me?
6. Baltimore will run away with the AL East. I cannot fathom why everyone is not predicting this (are they hyping the Yanks out of sympathy?) Baltimore won easily last year, and they'll be better in 2024. Do they have enough pitching? Maybe not. Do they have prospects who can be traded for pitching? Fuck, yeah. The O's Era will last three to five years. We're playing for wild cards.
7. Our breakout pitcher will be Clarke Schmidt. He'll win 15 games and maybe get a few Cy Young votes. Also, Alex Verdugo - a new dad, with new maturity - will hit 25 HRs and bat .290. Career year, as he heads to free agency. (He's got a kid to support.)
8. Aaron Boone will not last the season as manager. He'll leave in August, maybe citing personal reasons, or maybe just be canned. Won't matter why. The Yankees, banged up and sinking, will be desperate for change. Boone will walk the plank, and some firebrand - a Bobby Valentine type - will roil the clubhouse.
9. The Yankees will set an MLB record for most pitchers used in a regular season. Many, if not most, have yet to join the team; they'll be signed in Brian Cashman's weekly scavenger hunt, as he supplies the gristmill with fresh cadavers, like Peter Lorre in a Roger Corman movie. Don't be surprised if, before the year ends, we see Max Scherzer, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander in pinstripes. It won't even matter if Gerrit Cole avoids surgery and returns in June. The Yankees, terrified of losing him, won't work him, as in the past. And durability was his greatest asset.
10. Juan Soto will have a great year - .290, 40 HRs, 110 RBIs - and the Yankees, desperate to appease their rage-filled fan base, will give him a 10-year deal. The Big Wheel will turn, and come next March, we'll be predicting the same predictions. Let's just hope we're all still here to save each other, because - frankly - that's all the Yankees and this site can offer.
It's not often that a Yankees blogger will predict the predictive quality of his predictions. This is a huge step forward in the prediction race.
ReplyDeleteWhat we need are more predictions about our predictions. I'll start off by predicting that Duque's predictions about his predictions will be largely true. An amazing achievement.
4:10 Eastern. The most-hated team in baseball, the Yankees, face off against the most-hated team in the Yankeeverse, the Astros. I predict the Yankees will win even though Nestor is gone by the fourth inning, and further predict that that prediction will not necessarily be accurate.
Let the games begin!
ReplyDeleteOr as Ohtani would say: Place your bets. Just be sure to get someone else to do it for you.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: Have you recently been surprised by anything Cashman does?
Follow-up: Were any of those surprises on the Upside?
Cashman isn't steering the Yankees. He's simply doing what Hal decides, and Hal doesn't really care, because he'll never run out of money, no matter what happens. Of course, it would be nice to win, but it really doesn't matter.
ReplyDeleteCan’t fathom why people don’t think the O’s will run away with the East. Likewise, why some publications think the Yanks will win it.
ReplyDeleteI guess they don’t follow the team closely enough to see what is really happening here. I think this opening road trip will be something of a disaster.
Agree with Duque, been saying it all along, not enough pitching. Not nearly enough.