Saturday, September 22, 2018

As Yankees inch toward the wild card, hope and disappointment embrace in a bizarre mating dance

And so it goes...

I keep telling myself, All that matters is the Wild Card; just win that game, get hot, ride a streak, get lucky, go from there...

Yeah. That's the ticket.

Yesterday, in just so many words, that was the strategy outlined by Brian "Cooperstown" Cashman, the Yankee chessmaster, whose name comes to mind whenever I hear the phrase "artificial intelligence." Cash said we should not worry about who'll pitch against Boston in the playoffs, but deal with the supreme reality of our current position.

We must beat lowly, disastrous Baltimore and then somehow survive four games with a Tampa machine that looks ready to shred us into animal bedding. Then comes the ho-hum, three-game tune-up at Fenway, with the "YANKEES SUCK" soundtrack playing around the clock. Then, if we remain upright - it's the nine-inning season against Oakland, which is the only thing that matters. 

Last night? It doesn't matter. We won. That's all. This weekend? Doesn't matter. As long as we win. And yet...

We can't un-see what's going on.

1. No Yankee lead is safe. Our holders can't hold; our closers can't close. We have no lights-out arm in the bullpen. It requires magical thinking and a bottle of Crown Royal to imagine Zach Britton suddenly reverting to 2015 form. Between now and Oct. 2, Aroldis Chapman will not become a sure thing. And let's face it: Dellin Betances will never be. At some point in the wild card, we will turn the game over to a pile of hand grenades, each of which is ready to blow. For the rest of 2018, we will never know a feeling of security. We have Yankee PTSD. We've seen too much.

2. We rely far too much on the home run. If good teams manufactures runs, the 2018 Yankees simply don't qualify. Our offense almost entirely depends on long balls, and post-season history offers little hope for such teams. Even if we go on a power binge and win a game or two, our sluggers can go into hibernation at a moment's notice. And solid pitchers will shut us down. More and more, last October's run looks like an anomaly. We are approaching the worst decade in Yankee history, yet the NYC press touts Cash for Cooperstown. WTF? Put Syd Thrift in the Hall!

3. Our defense is frightful. We rank 18th in MLB in errors. Of playoff-bound teams, only the Dodgers have committed more. Last night, I was thinking, when was the last time we saw a game-changing, great Yankee defensive play? I couldn't think of one. Yes, there's Didi at SS, and Aaron Judge could win a gold glove someday. But look at those holes: Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, even Gleyber Torres at 2B. On one key play against Boston the other night, the Yankees made two defensive lapses: Aaron Hicks gunned a ball that didn't need to thrown, and Andujar didn't come off third base to secure it. As a result, the Redsocks scored an extra run, and a huge game flew out the window. This is the Yankees' new normal, after the All Star break. Why should we think it will end in the post season?

4. Winter is coming to Winterfell. You can sense the Army of Darkness preparing to attack. When I think of December, the phrase "wholesale housecleaning" comes to mind. Personally, I wish the Yankees would give Andujar time to learn third base - he could be the best homegrown Yankee hitter since Don Mattingly. But seriously, who expects that to happen? Embarrassed by this team's early exit, (and perhaps by another Boston world championship), Hal will sign Manny Machado and then trade Miggy for a couple Tommy Johns. He might even go after Bryce Harper in an explosion of ink and money. By February, the Yankees could be a headline-grabbing airship with three wings and no propellers. We've seen this before. Those who cannot remember history...

Eat your oatmeal, folks, and hit that treadmill. If you're waiting for the next Yankee resurgence, you may to have to live a long time. In fact, we might see Cooperstown Cashman's induction ceremonies first. Wouldn't that be something?

16 comments:

  1. I can't improve on this analysis. Pretty much spot on. I have hope for the playoffs, but I fear the results. Of all the things happening right now, the meltdown of the bullpen is the most troubling. Whatever happened to the "lights out" bullpen we were supposed to have? Someone apparently turned the lights out.

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  2. el duque,as you know, what makes baseball one of the best sports is that any team can win on a given night. You can catch a good wind, get hot and run off a nice win streak. While the Yankees have weaknesses , they are capable of such a streak. They may lose in the wild card crap shoot or make a nice run like last year. Enjoy the ride .

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  3. I would like to add support to El Duque's thesis. All stats are from BB Ref. The Yankees have committed 84 errors, which is middle of the pack for MLB. That's the only good news. The Yankees are 21 of 30 in Defensive Efficiency, by far the worst of the playoff bound teams. What about Total Zone Runs? The Yanks are a collective -40. (We're looking at you AnDU!) Dreadful, it places us at 24 of 30. No other playoff bound team has a negative Rtot. Double plays turned? The Yankees have 90. That is last in MLB. Last. As in 30 out of 30. Boston is 29th for some unknown reason with only 99. The Dodgers and Astros are 28th and 27th. So maybe DPs turned isn't that important a stat, but it does not reassure that the Yanks are last by a wide margin. I didn't breakdown the first half of the season compared to the second when it seemed like we were playing a minor squad everyday. I don't want to know the answer to that question. There's only so much I can take, and last night's game has filled me to the brim.

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  4. Sounds about like the perfect formula for me.

    We are going to win it all.

    You heard it here first.

    As for the oncoming red of winter, I am fine getting Machado to play third, as long as Andujar winds up in left field.

    Machado can then be said to be a defensive acquisition.

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  5. Good analysis, Warbler, disheartening though it is. I noticed that DP stat, too.

    Interestingly, our pitchers' WHIP—Wins and Hits per inning—is still BELOW that of Boston's, which may also account for the low DPs for both teams. Not that many guys get on. On the other hand, NYY and Boston ranks only 5 and 6 respectively, in the AL for WHIP, so....yeah, possibly this is also just that our infielders are pretty erratic.

    I think the bullpen has started to breakdown because of overuse. Way, way too many games in which even starters who are doing fairly well can't make it past the fifth.

    This is what happened in 2004, as well, even with starters who went somewhat longer—albeit with a much less deep pen. But of course, Cashman is adamant about learning absolutely nothing from history. There are only his theories, never experience.

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  6. I can stomach Harper and Manny, crazy contracts and all, if El Matador is merely shifted to first or—much better—left field.

    If he is traded, I think that will end my Yankees following for some time. They would still be my team, but I just don't think I could manage even the smallest positive thought for them. This guy is far and away their best all-around hitter; indeed, the best all-around rookie Yankees hitter I have ever seen, in more than half-a-century of following this team—the best all-around, rookie Yankees hitter since Joe DiMaggio, statistically.

    I don't care if he brings in Chris Sale. Trading him would be a travesty.

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  7. POWERFUL COMMENTARY MR. DUQUE...

    AS USUAL, SPOT-ON.

    I REALLY BELIEVE WE SHOULD LEAVE ANDUJAR AT 3RD IN THE FUTURE.

    ....AND GLEYBER, OF COURSE, STAYS AT 2ND.

    YES, DEFENSIVELY, THEY HAVE BEEN CHALLENGED THOS SEASON.

    ....BUT LETS PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE.

    ANDUJAR IS 23, AND GLEYBER IS 21.

    THEY HAVE BOTH CRACKED THE MAJOR LEAGUE CODE THIS SEASON AND HAVE ALREADY PROVEN TO BE OFFENSIVE STARS.

    WE HAVE TO HE REALISTIC.

    WE SHOULD BE GLAD AS HELL THEY BOTH MADE THE ROSTER THIS YEAR, LET ALONE BE STARTERS HEADED TO THE PLAYOFFS FOR THE FIRST TIME.

    LEAVE ANDUJAR, GLEYBER, AND DIDI ALONE FOR THE NEXT DECADE.

    PAY HARPER HIS RANSOM. [REMEMBER, COOP CREATED THIS PROBLEM BY NOT HAVING ENOUGH QUALITY LEFTY BATS IN THE LINEUP].

    WE'RE GONNA GET CORBIN, SO BE IT.

    I WOULD ADD KEUCHEL TOO.

    SORRY, NO MACHADO.

    HARPER, CORBIN, AND KUECHEL HOPEFULLY GETS US TO THE PARADE SOONER THAN LATER.

    PROBABLY COST A COOL $600 MILL.

    IT'S WHAT I WOULD DO, BUT NOT WHAT COOP WOULD.

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  8. So endeth the garter belt. On with the Depends.

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  9. While Duque is right as usual. I look at it this way.

    The bullpen is frightening,
    grips on bats are tightening,
    Boston is having their way.
    But as far as I'm concerned
    There's still games to play.

    - Irving Berlin (If he were still alive, a Yankee fan and a reader of this blog)

    As to the fate of AnDUjar:

    Can't imagine that they trade AnDUjar for the reason that Hoss stated above. Yankee fans, loyal bunch that we are, would revolt. You don't trade "the best all-around, rookie Yankees hitter since Joe DiMaggio, statistically."

    LF sounds good. Don't forget we haven't had a great hitting left fielder for a long long long time. Well to be more accurate, a great left fielder after the All Star Break. I have to give Gardner his regular first half of the year props. Next year LF should be AnDUjar, what's left of Frazier, and some (fill in the blank -insurance guy who will be the source of much outrage on this site.)

    Machado would be a GREAT addition on both sides of the ball. Let's do it.

    I have to agree with anon (above). Once you're in you are in. We've spanked Boston (and been spanked) We've spanked the Astros (and been spanked) likewise Cleveland. The A's scare me, But any one game is just that. The playoffs are a crap shoot. So Luck be a Late E (on the other team leading to a game winning rally.) Wow, I really had to go a long way for that. I think I'll stop now.

    Doug K.



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  10. AnDu is a magnificent hitter who will only improve. He cannot be traded, even if we acquire Machado. He has great hand-eye. He hits with power to all fields. I refuse to believe he can't be taught to field 3B or LF properly. Despite his -2.0 dWAR this year. Yes, you read that dWAR correctly;I double checked. He has a chance to be dominant top of the order hitter for more than a decade. He cannot be traded.

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  11. Doug K - nice job on the Guys and Dolls reference! I’m trying really hard to come up with some clever wordplay involving Chicago and Only The Big Inning, but I got nothing.

    Agree that it’s essential that AnDuhar stays whether it’s at third or left field. If we get Manny then put him in left.

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  12. ALL CAPS, I think the issue with AnDUjar is quickness to the ball. It gets to 3rd so fast that it's more of a reflex thing and I'm not sure that can be taught.

    Also Machado over Harper for me.
    2018 MM .295 35 97 101K 67W
    2018 BH .244 34 97 163K 124W

    We have too many strike out guys as it is.

    But YES! Pitching, pitching, pitching.

    Doug K.

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  13. LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THAT KID'S HEAD!! BIG GIANT HEAD DOES IT AGAIN!!! WHERE HAS HE BEEN HIDING ALL SEASON?!?!

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  14. It's tied. I close the computer and we go off to a leisurely dinner. Cacio y pepe and a pretty good Amarone. We get back to the hotel and the fucking game is still 2 fucking to fucking 2!

    Fuckers!

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  15. HOW CAN A TEAM THIS BAD HAVE 95 WINS!?!?!??? NOOOOOOOO!!! AHH! AHHH!!! Aha-ah-haaaaa!! HaaHaahahahahaaaaaaaaahhhh!!
    AAaAhhaaaa-haha-haaa-hhhhhHHHHHHHHaaaaAAHHHHHHHHHHHaaaa-ah-ah-ah-aaaaaaaaAaAaHaHaHaaaAAAAAAhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!

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