It's Even Worse Than It Looks

All right, let's just assume that Dom Thompson-Williams and Erik Swanson had what looked like breakout years only because they were playing against younger and less experienced competition.

That has, alas, been the reason for all too many Yankee prospect "breakouts" for too many years.

And let's assume that the Yanks (for once) knew—after just 2 2/3 innings of major-league action!—that their No. 1 prospect and long proclaimed future staff anchor, Justus Sheffield, is really a washout.

That still wouldn't make this a good trade.

Speaking of breakouts, James Paxton has had all of one such season on the major-league level, his 12-5, 2.98 2017...in which he pitched all of 136 innings.

In 2018, despite his no-hit shutout and two complete games (both league leaders in these iron man days), Paxton's ERA shot up by almost a full run a game, to 3.76.

He did win 11 more games, but pitched only 160 innings because—as has happened pretty much every year he's pitched—he spent time on the DL. In the second half of 2018, he was just 3-2, 3.95, with only 8 starts.

Wait, it gets worse!

Even in his career-year 2017, Paxton managed to lead the AL in wild pitches, with 15 in those 136 innings.  That should match up well with you-know-who.

And then there's the advantage of Seattle's pitcher's park.

In 2018, Paxton had a 3.35 ERA at home—and 4.24 everywhere else.
Over his whole career: 2.98 in Seattle, 3.87 everywhere else.

So let's review.  Concerning our new pitcher:

—Never won more than 6 games in a season before 2017.
—Has only had one full season with an ERA below 3.00.
—Has never really pitched a full season due to constant injury problems.
—Has a tendency to throw wild pitches.
—Pitches much, much better at home than on the road.
—Is 30 years old, and last year was a big step backwards, finished off with an injury-filled second half.

Folks, it wasn't rocket science to top this one.  To get a pitcher at least as good as Paxton—and probably better—all we had to do was sign one of Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi, or Happ.

Sign two of the above, and we're miles ahead of this move.  And—oh yeah—WE DON'T GIVE UP ANYBODY.

This is at best a poor trade and an unnecessary one.  It is at worst one that will haunt us for many years to come.

Fire

Cashman

Now.