"NO JUSTUS, NO PEACE! NO JUSTUS, NO PEACE! NO JUSTUS, NO PEACE..."

Somebody once said, "You can't predict baseball, Suzyn." Then again, as Casey Stengel once said, "They say a lot of things, but sometimes, it isn't always so."

Well, one thing you can bank on: Time after time, season after season, Brian "Cooperstown" Cashman will trade away a concrete pillar of the Yankee future in his relentless, Holy Grail quest for the baseball equivalent of the Manic Pixie Dream Girl - the so-called "power arm." From Jeff Weaver to Sonny Gray, from Javier Vazquez to Michael Pineda, from Humberto Sanchez to Ed Yarnell, Cashman will always take a gleeful bite of a baited hook. And yesterday, the Yankees traded their best pitching prospect in recent years for James Paxton, a 30 year-old lefty who was twice on the disabled list last year.

Listen: They say the devil is in the details. In baseball, the devil is in the clock. Once again, the Yankees are trading the future to win now, and there is always peril in that equation. Surely, Cashman must know another Sonny Gray debacle could permanently sabotage his record in New York. The Yankees haven't won donkey dick in 10 years, and if this deal goes south, the vultures - (like me) - will be circling.   

Today's headline says the Yanks acquired Mariners "ace" James Paxton for three prospects. Well, let's look under the hood... 

1. Paxton was Seattle's "ace" in the way Luis Severino qualified for it on the Yankees: He was the best starter on a staff of Venus de Milos. His ERA last year jumped by nearly one run per game, and the Mariners were all but listing him on Amazon Prime. Is that how a team treats its "ace?" (See: Mets de Grom.) At 30, he's already thrown a lifetime of pitches. And the Yankees today note that they'll have for two years at a relatively modest price. (A chilling question: Was money the consideration? Are we still playing to the salary cap, so Food Stamps Hal Steinbrenner can buy the YES Network?)

But but BUT... they say Paxton - "Big Maple," he's called - is a rock-ribbed, vice-gripped infantry commando. He threw a no-hitter last year. Late in the season, he shut down the Yankees. If he succeeds, considering Sevy's backsliding, Paxton could easily be our best starter in 2019. That's not nuthin. Is he an "ace?" Fuck if I know. For me, Ace is the place of the helpful hardware man.  

2. The Yankees just punted on another top prospect, Justus Sheffield, and one of these days, instead of nosing the red button and getting a food pellet, they're going to receive an electric shock. Still, why am I not surprised? For some reason, they were never all in on Sheffield last season. They went through the second half searching for someone - anyone - but still overlooked Sheffield.

In August, they tried Chance Adams. In September, long after his soil-sheeted bed was made, they tried Sonny Gray. Over and over, they tried Lance Lynn. At the end, for reasons it would the Mueller investigation to explain, they yet again tried Luis Cessa. But they never gave the ball to Sheffield. How do you explain that, other than to conclude that somebody - Cashman, Rothschild, the ghost of Billy Connor - had simply decided Sheffield wouldn't make it. 

But but BUT... here's the rub: Someone in Seattle thinks otherwise.

3. Eric Swanson is one of those spare change prospects the Yankees will claim they had to deal, or else they'd lose him in the Rule 5 draft. That always makes a trade seem palatable, even when we give away Ben Gamel. Swanson rolled through Double A last year, then hit turbulence at Scranton in 13 starts. He's 25, big as a hospital, and could be a nice bullpen piece. Guys like him hit age 26, add 3 mph to their fastball, and throw lights out for a season. (See Mean Chad Green.) Brace yourselves: This guy will probably come out of their bullpen some night and strike out our side on 10 pitches. But he won't be an ace.

4. Dom Thompson-Williams, 23, had a surprisingly good year down in the A-ball netherworld - hitting .299 with 22 HRs and 20 stolen bases. He hit .290 at high-A Tampa, a notorious pitchers' league. You didn't find him in our "prospect rankings," but Seattle probably chose him from a list of bonus babies - the Dermis Garcias, the Nelson Gomezes - who have drawn more ink. If the Yankees got him in a trade, today's tabs would feature at least one Gammonite suggesting the deal will someday be considered "the Dom Thom trade." You can't predict baseball. You can predict news. 

Listen: I don't what to make of this. It's not the defining element of our winter. It's just the first rock thrown. We can only judge it by what happens next. But long haul... if Paxton turns out to be another pitcher beyond his sell-date, Cashman better cancel his reservation at the Otesaga Hotel for the 2030 induction ceremonies, because his trip to Cooperstown will get shut down by fan protests. Cars won't be able to make it due to the pile of human arms that are stacked in the middle of Route 80. It'll be like one of those Saudi social events, you know... when instead of a bottle opener, somebody brings a bone saw.