All of the rosy predictions for this team are based on every single player having a more or less career year. Octavius will be lights out. CC will retire in a burst of glory. Sanchez will regain his power and become a defensive miracle. Stanton will hit 70 home runs. Bird will finally be the great hitter he has always been predicted to be. If not, Voit will step in and do even better. Didi will come back midseason and immediately return to form. There will be no sophomore slumps for Glyber or AnDUjar. Paxton will cure the rotation's ills. Sevvy will be the Sevvy of last year's first half, it was all just about tipping pitches, that's all. Hicks will not revert to the mean that he's established during most of his career. Gardy will retire in a burst of glory, too. Judge will be healthy and lethal. Tulo won't retire but will have one more burst of glory. Head case Betances will not walk the bases loaded. Chapman's knee (and head) will be fine. Tanaka will be steady and sure.What are the odds that half of that list doesn't turn out right? Or maybe a quarter doesn't. Do we still beat the Sox and win the division? Do we improve on our big 100 wins from last year (the most depressing 100-win season I ever saw)? Do we annoint our new Core Four (or Five, or whatever) and go on to dominate the next five years?
Yeah, I dunno. Seems like an awful lot has to go right. And remember, we still have Boone and Rothschild in the dugout. And Cashman will still trade away whatever prospects we have left for lugnuts. And we still didn't sign Harper. And we still don't have even one left-handed power hitter, unless the Bird miracle happens.
Yeah. I dunno. You know?
ReplyDeleteJohn M puts his finger(s) on one heck of a lot of problems.
However: When last season started with Drury at 3B and Walker at 2B, I didn't know Gleyber would be good -- and Andujar just short (fielding) of great. In truth, I had hopes -- but Andujar exceeded them. And remember: For at least a short while, it appeared neither of these guys would get a decent shot.
Didja know: Andujar had 598 plate appearances and, unlike some of his teammates, struck out "only" 97 tines. 10th in the AL in batting average, 7th in the league in Slugging. Tied for 2nd in the AL (with Betts) in Doubles. Maybe he can sustain that performance (it's all he has to do at the plate, really) while improving in the field.
Also, you are looking at a possible July-Aug influx of help -- Didi and Monty. Maybe. Without Harper, Didi's LH bat sure looms large, don't it?
My unhappiness in NYYs chances in the coming season stems from --
a. No Bryce (*and thus, no LH power).
b. No Toe. If Tulo ain't got it, it's Fugly, ain't it?
c. Starting pitching looks weak. As John M says.
Exactamundo, Mister Calabash.
ReplyDeleteUntil he proves differently, Paxton is a left-handed Gray to me. Wonder how c-assman will weasel/alibi out of the Hicks contract when he goes bust? Where's the left handed power? Where's the starting pitching? Hell is a f***king liar!
ReplyDeleteJoe FOB,
ReplyDeleteDidn't realize how good AnDujar's numbers were. Thanks for posting that. As far as Harper... there really was no excuse.
One thing that you wrote though that may not be the issue you think. If Tulo spits the bit, Gleybar was originally a SS and supposedly a good one. If Didi doesn't recover and /or leaves next year, Gleybar moves over to SS anyway.
DJ is a 3X Gold Glove 2B and could easily fill in at second. Right now they are trying to turn him into a super utility guy but he is actually one of the best if not the best 2B (defensively) in BB.
So the Tulo thing doesn't scare me. What does is that they do the Steven Drew thing and keep putting him out there long after he has proven that he can't get it done. That would be bad.
Doug K.
John M., you have hit the nail on the head. We are apparently to be lectured for the rest of our lives over the wonderfulness of the one hundred wins. Hurrah!
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, all the optimistic calculations are based on everyone not getting injured and probably having a career year. Good luck!
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