Nine days from now, the old, white, billionaire owners of our national pastime will once again hold the unscrupulous and exploitative cattle auction known as the MLB Draft. These lords of "capitalism" will select prime talent from a national menu, bestow millions of dollars upon a chosen few - so working Americans will shake their heads over what appears to be a giveaway - and then short-ball everybody else with "take-it-or-leave-it" offers, based on rules the owners imposed upon themselves to keep down costs. They will own the players for six years. The system spares them from ever having to bid on young talent. (That's why one of the premier prospects will go to Japan, rather than the draft.)
In this contemptible celebration of institutional control, the Yankees will draft 30th, a place dictated by last year's wild card finish. They will then draft eight picks later in a "sandwich" round, a choice received from the Reds in the Sonny Gray trade.
Apparently, that pick is why the Yankees have sat on the curb for the last four months, rattling a cup rather than signing the pitcher Dallas Keuchel. Because Keuchel last winter received a qualifying offer from the Astros, any successful team that signed him would forfeit their highest pick after the first round, and that's what the Yankees would lose: Pick No. 38.
Yesterday, the great website Fangraphs published a team-by-team assessment of the costs of signing Keuchel right now. For Death Star fans, it's infuriating. If we thought the newly revised CBA between the owners and the Players Union would lessen the shackles on us, we were wrong. Even though the Yankees no longer lead baseball in payroll, or success - or stature, for that matter - if we had signed Keuchel, we'd face a higher cost than anybody else in baseball. Go figure.
That said, Fangraphs gauges the overall Yankee hit at a mere cost of about $10.6 million. And that's if we sign him before the June 3 draft. If we sign him, say, June 6, as far as I can tell, whatever punishments remain would roll over to next year, and who knows where we'll be? Maybe the Martians will attack, and there won't even be an MLB draft, okay?
This we know: Barring an incredible collapse, the 2019 Yankees will either win the AL East or a Wild Card birth. Today, their biggest concern is - well, the usual one: pitching, pitching, pitching.
Domingo German will soon exceed innings projections for the year. Masahiro Tananka and JA Happ run hot and cold. CC Sabathia will always be a sidestep away from knee surgery, James Paxton is proving as fragile as his reputation, Luis Severino's injuries are increasingly a troubling mystery, and it's a steep drop to what we have in Scranton: Chance Adams, Nestor Cortez Jr. and David Hale. Right now, there is no hot young pitcher rocketing up through the minors, a potential game-changer for September. The "Next Man Up" concept, which kept us in position players, does not necessarily apply to pitching.
Sign Keuchel, and here's the rotation: German, Happ, Tanaka, Keuchel, Paxton, Sabathia and maybe Severino. Seven men for five slots. It's a plan that can win. It's a plan that lets us keep Clint Frazier, Thairo Estrada, Estevan Florial and whomever else is currently being coveted by opposing scouts. And if their destiny is to be trade chips, at least the deals can be made over the winner, when all sides are on equal footing.
The Yankees are currently financing the repurchase of YES Network, a deal that runs in billions. In comparison, the cost of Keuchel is a fried egg sandwich.
Come next spring, our man in the old, white patriarchs club - Prince Hal Steinbrenner - could be launching the reacquired YES with the Yankees as reigning world champions. Or we could be once again looking up at Boston.
Mr. Steinbrenner, there can be no debate here. There are no excuses for inaction. The Yankees must sign Dallas Keuchel.
Hopefully, they don't. They must have a guy who gave up the most hits in MLB last season? No thanks.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how Justus Sheffield is doing...(looks at his 2019 numbers)...well perhaps we didn't loose anything by trading him off.
ReplyDeleteI guess the best the Yanks can do to compensate is to start using openers. Then make the current starters into 4 innings men. That works out well because I don't really trust any of our starters to go 5 innings without giving up enough runs to loose a game. And then the usual set of decent enough closers for the last 3 innings.
That arrangement should easily offset not having any reliable 7+ inning starters. I'm pretty sure that's the future of baseball as well because good pitching is so scarce. The players these days are just too fragile to go 1970's-style baseball of at least 300 innings, 20ish complete games and almost 4 dozen games played a year. They are lucky to go half of those numbers in 2019.
ReplyDeleteI go back and forth on Keuchel. I could see how a "pillow" one year deal or a two year deal has merit. He could always take CC's place at the back of the rotation next year but...
How ready is he? We can't have him blow 4-5 games as he goes through "spring training". I'm sure he's working out but game ready is different.
BTW According to MLB 21 of our 30 top prospects are pitchers.
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=nyy
Some we've seen. Some are hurt. Some are a couple of years away. But they're out there.
Doug K.
Monty's a second half possibility too.
ReplyDeleteKeuchel appears to be another pitched approaching his sell date. In 2018 his hits allowed, WHIP, HR/9 were all going the wrong way. That said we need another healthy pitcher. If he can pitch to a 4:25 ERA he can help by eating up some starts and letting the Yankees bats win some games.
ReplyDeleteSigning him for this and next year would be the max I would do. Maybe you do an option and buy out on another year.
He could adjust and do better than I anticipated. While you may get flashes of this past performance, my guess is you don’t see the Dallas Keuchel of old over the term of the contract.
I HAVE ALWAYS LIKED KEUCHEL BECAUSE I THINK HE IS A "HEADY" PITCHER WHO WILL TRANSLATE IT INTO WINS FOR US, EVEN THOUGH HIS BEST DAYS ARE MOST LIKELY GONE.
ReplyDeleteTHE PROBLEM FOR US IS, WE LOVE TO KEEP PLAYING CHEAP, AND THERE ARE 29 OTHER TEAMS OUT THERE THAT NEED A STARTING PITCHER.
THAT MEANS THE PRICE GOES UP.
SURE, HAL CAN FIND THE MONEY IN HIS COUCH CUSHIONS, BUT HE DOESN'T WANT TO.
THE WAY I SEE IT, IT IS EITHER KEUCHEL OR BUMGARNER FOR US.
KEUCHEL WILL COST MONEY ONLY.
BUMGARNER WILL COST US CLINT, OUR FARM, AND THEN MONEY TOO, DOWN THE ROAD.
IT IS A TOUGH DECISION.
LETS SEE HOW COOP FUCKS IT UP.
STAY TUNED.
Barring any setbacks, Montgomery is due back at Yankee Stadium right after the All-Star break.
ReplyDeleteUnknown..... you might be correct. Several years ago, the Yankees acquired a pitcher that had already had TJ surgery and had lead MLB in base hits the year before. His name was Nathan Eovaldi and despite his good won/loss record when he happened to be fortunate enough to pitch when the Yankees scored a ton of runs, his ERA was a high 4.20h, WHIP a miserable 1.45. In fact, had he not pitched just 150-ish innings, he likely would have lead at least the AL in hits again.
That said, a pro-rated one year contract with maybe one more year wouldn't be a huge gamble especially if the second year was tied to results. He would be no worse than CC (I think) and could eat innings and save bullpen arms.
ReplyDeleteALL-CAPS, I'm with you. Never hand over players when you can just send money—and I doubt if there's much real difference between Keuchel and Bumgarner at this point in their careers.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm sure Keuchel is past his sell-by.
But the trouble with the whole "openers" idea—besides how it drives down attendance and diminishes the game—is that it will inevitably take a toll on one's relievers. Even with 8 of them on the roster, these guys are not indefatigable. They WILL start to become less and less effective, the more they are used.
Give Keuchel a big 1-2 year deal, and have him at least eat innings for us. If nothing else, he will have saved everybody else's arms by the playoffs.
Tanaka and Happ may both be spotty this year, but Tanaka is by far the superior, less-spotty pitcher so far. FanGraphs' WHIP chart has him at very close to "Great" this year and Happ is very, very close to "Average."
ReplyDeleteThe Professor has had a few rough starts, granted. But Happ has had a couple more.
Side note: the Yankees have LOST three games in which Tanaka went 6 or 7 innings and let in 1 or no earned runs. How the fuck does that happen, Yankees bullpen? It's ridiculous. Talk about a hard luck pitcher.
I'd take Tanaka over anyone on our starting staff right now. Unless, or course, you want 4 great innings almost guaranteed before going through the order a second time, in which case I'll take German.
Signed,
Concerned Citizens for the Appreciation of Professor Tanaka
MA-SA!! HI-RO!!
ReplyDeleteKeuchel, now age 31, gave up more hits than innings pitched last year. In fact, his only standout stat was that he GAVE UP THE MOST HITS IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE IN 2018. These are all red flags. He is a name with a fine past but a dubious future. I'm surprised at you, duque--only WFAN callers and hosts and dumbass beat writers are routinely beguiled by names. You have joined some very disreputable, thoughtless company with this post.
ReplyDeleteShut up, Warplist. Go adjust the timing on your death-dealing Babbit-mobile.
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees already have two aging, overpriced, underperforming lefties in the starting rotation. Adding a third would be classic Cashman idiocy.
ReplyDeleteLove having one JA Happ? Why not another
ReplyDeleteWE NEED "STABLE" STARTERS, annonymous.
ReplyDeleteHAPP ISN'T GREAT SO FAR THIS YEAR, BUT HE IS PROVIDING STABILITY, INNINGS, AND SOME WINS, (4).
KEUCHEL MAY DO BETTER OR MORE OF THE SAME, AS HAPP, BUT WE CAN'T KEEP GOING WITH THESE "OPENERS" FOR LONG.
GREEN, NASTY NESTOR, AND CHANCE ADAMS?
THAT'S NO-MANS LAND FOR US.....AND WE BETTER DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
With the dearth of pitching around baseball, isn't it cautionary that nobody has signed Keuchel? If the Yanks sign him, they are betting 2018 was an anomaly and not the beginning of a terminal slide. Sure it's just money, but who wants an expensive dog out there every fifth day?
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