This week, between the Yanks and Rays, expect a lot of slow marches back to the dugout or short jogs to first.
In a normal game, based on 2020 stats, the two teams will send 75 batters to the plate (the Yankees this season averaged 37; the Rays, 38.)
Of those 75 plate appearances, 18 will be strikeouts, eight batters will walk, and three will whack homers. Slightly more than half the balls will be put into play.
Factor in Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell each pitching twice - games one and five - and you can add a few strikeouts. (Add even more due to the late-afternoon shadows.) If you consider the big game pressure, you could rationalize adding a few walks. Either way, at times, it will seem as if we are watching a chess match more than a sports contest.
Check out the 2020 batting stats.
Strikeouts: Despite our complaints, Yankee batters ranked 23rd in MLB, with 480 Ks; the Rays ranked first, with 607. They are a free-swinging team.
Walks: Yankee batters led all of MLB with 251. The Rays finished second, with 243. Both teams feature finicky hitters.
Home runs: Yankee batters ranked fifth, with 94; the Rays 17th, with 80. (Considering that Judge, Stanton, Gleyber and LeMahiue missed much of that season, and they are now healthy, we should have a power advantage.)
We ranked 17th in runs scored, beating Tampa by three. We hit into a lot more DPs, ranking third, with 51. The Rays were 20th, with 38.
In a nail-biter, say, with the tying run on base, forget laying one down. This season, the Yankees produced 1 - yes, one! - sac bunt. And get this: The Rays were worse: They never did it once, NOT ONCE, ranking dead last.
So much for old school, eh?
So, the 2020 pitching numbers?
Strikeouts: The Yankees finished 11th, with 528. The Rays were 6th, with 552. For all the talk about our fearsome bullpen, they have a more potent collection of strikeout arms.
Walks: Both teams seldom issue free passes. They tied for 26th, with 168.
Home runs: The Yankees were 5th (with 83), the Rays 19th, (70).
Make no mistake: When the ninth man up is a Brett Gardner/Clint Frazier meld, you have a fearsome lineup. The Yankees should do damage. But good pitching always dominates good hitting, and you know what? That's all I know.
Rays committed 33 errors this season...Yanks 48...hmmmm
ReplyDeleteKey to this series is the Yanks ability to hit Charlie Morton...they still haven't figured him out....
The Yankees have not figured out how to hit any of the Rays pitchers. Beyond the numbers, it was really the totality of how we got our butts kicked this year by them. It's hard to see a path to victory. If Cole gives up two runs, that's practically a death sentence for us. And after Cole, who matches up against their starters? Even if we somehow win Game 1, there's still a mountain to climb. Remember how we won the first game against the Houston Cheatros in last year's playoff and then fell on our faces.
ReplyDeleteI hope we don't have too many shifts on, because it seems like they were very good at hitting into holes against us. They may have struck out more than us for the season, but that's not the way those ten games played out. Their hitters made more contact, hit into holes, got clutch hits, and were more difficult outs in general. We, on the other hand, made it all too easy for their pitchers by getting ourselves out much of the time. If we can have professional at bats against them, then we have a chance. But based on those ten games, what's the likelihood of our hitters suddenly getting much wiser and not taking stupid at bats?
And then again, their bullpen is much better than our arson squad. And their manager actually uses his brain to make decisions. The difference between the overall level of play b/w them and us is about the same as the difference b/w us and the Orioles.
The Hammer of God
And if we did actually beat up one of their pitchers, you can bet that they'll start dusting our hitters. And none of our pitchers will respond in kind. Which will result in our offense drying up while their offense heats up.
ReplyDeleteThe Hammer of God
Excellent statistical analysis, Duque! One caveat: there won't be any late-afternoon shadows, as the Yanks are Deion Sanders— primetime—all the way.
ReplyDeleteI do think TB has a huge advantage, due solely to the bullpen.
Rays in four.
Game time in San Diego is 5 pm today. Mega shadows.
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