Thursday, July 20, 2023

Of GOATs and men

 

It now seems likely—especially if the rest of the major leagues keep pitching him as mindlessly as the Yankees did—that Shohei Ohtani will break Aaron Judge's short-lived, Real Original Home Run Record.

This will, of course, trigger all the more, MLB-inspired acclamations that Ohtani is the greatest all-around player what ever lived. 

Hey, what can I say? He certainly is an outstanding ballplayer, hitting, pitching, and rocking a sleeveless sweater vest like nobody's business.

Ohtani should look to his laurels, though. Coming up fast behind him is MLB's newest p.r. project, Ronald Acuna, Jr., who an AP story last weekend was calling maybe the greatest "power-speed player" that ever was.

AP's reasoning? 

Well, currently at 23 home runs and 44 stolen bases, Acuna has a chance to become the fifth ever, 40-40 player—40 dingers, 40 steals. 

What's more, we were told, his future could be almost unlimited. What is to stop him, this year or the next, from going on to 40-plus homers and 60, or 70, or 80 steals for the season, which would indeed make him the greatest power-speed guy ever?

Hey, not to take anything away from either Ohtani or Acuna. Both are extraordinary players who are a joy to watch. But their being hailed as The Greatest of All Time at anything is indicative mostly of how MLB deliberately misuses statistics—and why the game is so bad today.


It used to be that you decided "the greatest ever" after the fact. No more. Now, the selective use of statistics can tell you the future today.

Shohei Ohtani, great as he is, will not come close to Babe Ruth—among others—in any of the lifetime stats, old or new, that matter most: runs, RBI, home runs, batting average, OPS, OPS-plus, wins, complete games, shutouts, relative dominance of the era they're playing in, etc.

MLB's commentators know this—which is why we get bombarded with claims such as, "Ohtani has more strikeouts," or "Ohtani has been a combination pitcher/position player longer than Ruth ever was." 

But of course, Ohtani is not really a pitcher/position player at all. He has never recorded a single chance in the field save on the mound. When he is not pitching, he is a Designated Hitter, a "position" that did not even exist until 1973. 

It's nice that he strikes out a lot of guys—as everyone does, in an era when nearly all batters swing from the heels on every pitch. What he can't do, usually, is pitch into the eighth inning, something he has achieved only 6 times in his 81 lifetime starts. He isn't close to becoming what the Babe was in his time, which was the dominant, left-handed pitcher in the game.

The "power-speed" calculation is even more contrived. 

The four previous, 40-40 guys Aruna is supposedly chasing were Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, old friend Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano. Three of them were infamous juicers. (Funny to think that good old Soriano is the only legitimate 40-40 guy.)

But in any case...this is the standard?

Bobby Bonds, sire of Barry, came within a single home run of becoming a 40-40 guy back in 1973. No one much cared. 

Then there's Rickey Henderson, who only hit 297 homers, stole 1,406 bases, and flagged down a mind-boggling, 6,468 outfield putouts, third on the all-time list.

Think Rickey might have stolen even more bases with the special, super-size bags of today, and limits on throw-overs to first?

I think so. In fact, I did the algorithms. According to my calculations, the exact number of bases that Rickey would have stolen under present conditions, + or - 4, is...a bajillion. He would have stolen a bajillion bases.

But forget Rickey. What about Ken Griffey, Jr., who stole as many as 24 bases in a season, and finished 9th on the all-time putout list, before his legs started to go?

What about Mickey Mantle, clocked the fastest man ever to first, as 3.1 seconds, and whose stolen base rate of 80.1 percent is a little ahead of Aruna's 79.5%?

What about Henry Aaron, 9th on the all-time putout list, with a record 755 home runs, and 240 stolen bases? What about...oh, who was that guy...FIRST on the all-time putout list, 660 home runs, 339 stolen bases, despite losing two years to the Army...?

Oh, yeah. Willie Mays. We're ready to say that Ronald Acuna, Jr., is a better "power-speed" guy than Willie Mays?

In a pig's eye.

Supposedly, too, Jolting' Joe DiMaggio was very fast, but they never ran him. Hell, for that matter, even Babe Ruth stole home ten times. 

I could go on. (And do!) But the fact is that all of these ballplayers played a different—usually much smarter—brand of ball in their eras. They ran as much as they thought it was a good idea—and they didn't try to strike everybody out, or swing for the fences on every pitch.

The one argument the presentists might have is that some of these GOATs played before the smashing of the color line in 1947.

Even this is mitigated by the fact that many of the best Black athletes today choose football and basketball over baseball. 

But the hypocrisy of the commentators is revealed by the fact that, somehow, none of the greatest Negro League players ever figure into these conversations.

Martin Dihigo, an incredible player, inducted into the American, Cuban, and Mexican baseball halls of fame, used to be a top-flight pitcher, and played nearly every other position on the field. Ted "Double-Duty" Radcliffe was considered an outstanding pitcher and catcher...to name just two among many other Negro League stars who pitched and played the field.

To be sure, it is more difficult to measure exactly how good Black players were before 1947, because the statistics are limited or incomplete.

But that's just the point. MLB and the baseball press want to rely only on the stats—and only on the stats they like. 

What you end up with is comparing sprinters to marathoners. The players we generally think of as the true, Greatest of All Time, played at least 15, 20, even 25 years.

MLB's GOATs of today...have trouble just staying on the field. Ohtani has missed an average of 23 games a year so far. Acuna, 32. Aaron Judge, whose record-breaking I thrilled to last year, in what really was one of the greatest seasons of the modern era, averages 33 missed games a year, and counting. And all those numbers would be even worse without the Covid epidemic of 2020.

These incessant injuries to the greatest ever is all too indicative of baseball as it's played today. (Shocking fact I heard yesterday on the Mets' broadcast: 19 of the 30 MLB teams have not yet had a starter pitch into the 8th inning this year.) 

As Kevin pointed out recently, today's trainers somehow think that the regular wear-and-tear of playing the long season is not a workout on its own.  It is.

Today's game is full of shiny, pretty things, that are played full-speed, all the time, until they break. Which they do constantly. Then we're told, never mind, that while they were out there, they were the best there ever was. 

I'm not buying it. Endurance counts, too. Give me 20 years of Ronald Acuna, Jr., and then I'll tell you if he's better than Willie Mays. Say hey.






 








22 comments:

  1. You know... if they had the DH in Babe Ruth's time he could have stayed a pitcher and still have his bat in the lineup everyday.

    Hmmmn.

    I guess these modern players are "once in a generation" players. A phrase much like, "1000-year rain event" or "once in century heatwave" that pretty much have been reduced to the equivalent of, "Thursday."

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  2. Many of the pundits who call Othani the GOAT, don't know who Ruth is., much less that he had to play the field when he batted.

    On a happy note, the Yanks should beat up the hapless Royals this weekend. All 3 of their SPs have ERAs of at least 5.40.
    It should be a field day. What could possibly go wrong?

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  3. Remember back in the late eighties when THEY started the hype machine up for Eric Davis? "Could he be the first 80/60 player"? This based on what he had done in two half seasons! He was something until his "gears" started to seize up. When you look at his stolen base numbers, well let's just say that something was "funny".

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  4. Historically speaking - Thursdays do tend to suck.

    So thank you Mr. HC66 for such a great read on this no good, horrible day.

    And whilst other days of the week can suck equally as hard and as bad as a Thursday, Thursdays are just the worse.

    Ok Ok Ok - some of you may say “you’re bumming out my day, AA - you’re bumming out my day”!

    Yeah Yeah Yeah - you might be right.

    I’m going to go cheer myself up tonight - I’m going to go see Oppenheimer

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  5. You're correct EBD,
    My generation did not usher in the Voting Rights Act, the EPA, the various Worker Safety Acts and the War on Poverty.
    We just longed for the good old days when players ran hard to first and hit to the opposite field by design and, of course, were all white men.

    Luckily we have uplifting youngsters like yourself to help us as we meander through our mundane unenlightened existence.
    I especially love it when you use those big words to show us feeble rubes how really smart you are. Gee Whiz and Holy Cow, you are one special being.

    Now, GET OFF MY LAWN!!

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  6. Nice misrepresentation of what Hoss said, which was that the hypemasters are full of shit and why.

    Not very good at reading comprehension. Everything Hoss said is true, especially about the Negro League players and how they're left out of the hypesters' consideration. This entire point was ignored by our expert on racism. As were the remarks about Mays, Aaron, and Henderson, who last I looked are all Black, like the Negro League guys.

    In fact, you could probably make some kind of argument about the big hypesters' ingrained racism. Just a thought.

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  7. I don’t see the point in comparing players of different eras. Too many differences in training, nutrition…today’s players are bigger, faster, stronger, much more diverse. What kind of player would Babe Ruth be today? Who knows, because his conditioning, coaching, development would be totally different. If you magically transported him into 2023 I think he would struggle. Could he adapt? Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows?

    It seems like a few posts have been deleted from this thread, so I’m uncertain what today’s controversy is all about.

    BTW, Donaldson has been put on the 60 day IL, this will likely end his career as a Yankee. Cashman, they architect of the crumbling building just goes on and on and on…

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  8. The average fastball was probably eighty-five mph! What bullshit It brings! Now HC is an embarrassment to the blog!!!!!! UBCRZYIGNERNTRAYCYST!!!!

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  9. Thanks for the comments, guys—and the laughs.

    999, you have a good point, but that's one reason I like comparing baseball players over different eras. At least, unlike most basketball and football players, they are CLOSE to the same size.

    Yes, it's hard to do:

    What's easie? Hitting a fading starter you're seeing for the fourth time...or Nick Ramirez?

    More draining? Jetting over three time zones...of a 27-hour Pullman trip? Itchy wool uniforms, or all those damned ads in between innings?...



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  10. As for Ruth, it IS difficult to imagine him existing as is today.

    He was, according to his daughter, ADHD, so maybe he would've been lithiumed up. Or maybe he never would've gone to that orphanage in the first place, and been shot on the street.

    If he could somehow have emerged as he was in today's game, I doubt that he would've batted .342 lifetime. But, with fences moved in by an average of 25 feet and modern bats, he might've hit over 1,000 home runs.

    Pure speculation, of course—but it's fun...

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  11. But no, this piece was not meant as a knock on anyone, save for the MLB hipsters.

    Introduced to old-school guys who might've taught him how to pitch to contact and play left field—and pulled him out of the damned weight room—I think Ohtani might've been EVEN GREATER than he is today.

    For anything to progress—anything at all, sport, business, nation, people—it is necessary to both embrace the wisdom of the past the innovations of today. MLB doesn't want to learn that lesson. They just want baseball to be what they consider flashy and hip—like basketball or football.

    Well, we all want something!

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  12. When your beloved spouse is dying… suffering from dementia… bed ridden… do you hide from it?

    No.

    We must continue to listen to the games.

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  13. I know you're joking, Kevin, and I appreciate the support.

    But...speed is another trade-off, as it happens. I'm sure guys generally throw faster today. And modern batters would sneer at a regular diet of 85-mph fastballs. But I wonder what they say when you told them:

    —Gimme that great, light, whippet bat. You get to hit with what is basically a barn plank.
    —What? Throw out the baseball 'cause it's all marked up? Uh, not until 1921, son. And even then, not so much.
    —Yes, the pitcher knows 15 different ways to doctor the ball, even though it's officially against the rules. (Looking at you, Whitey Ford!)
    —Take off that protective equipment. Yes, the body armor. And the shin guards.
    —And the helmet. That's right, cowboy. Let's see you stop a measly 85-mph pitch with your skull.

    Not for nothing, but the only player ever to die on a major-league field was killed in 1920. It speaks to how deceptive Carl Mays' stuff was, and to how vulnerable all batters were.

    See? I love this stuff! It's one more thing that's great about baseball. No more rush to judgement! (Just to Judge toe. Sorry.)

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  14. Kevin - - - Riddle me this…….upper case or lower case? You decide!

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  15. HC, yes I was joking except for the part about velocity. Walter Johnson was clocked at over 100 mph, as were other notables. And I know that it wasn't as accurate (maybe it was faster?), but the fact that the guys who had gas still got hit implies that the other pitchers weren't schlumps. And as you note, no protective gear. THAT WAS REAL! The problem with a certain fan(s) is that the game, because of the modern press, because a column of numberofs until you read biographies of players. And I mean ones recently written, and the ones written contemporaneously. I read two recently that I found to be real eye openers, one on Ted and one on Cobb. I had preconceptions on both, of course. Both players were portrayed in many shades of grey befitting people who grew up long ago, and dealt with things unimaginable to young people, who had a code of conduct and ethics that guys our age absorbed only as children, but are still there, entwined somewhere in the DNA.

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  16. AA, regarding "case" I'm not sure what you mean. Was that regarding the last night's flaming or?

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  17. Thanks, Joe. Great flapping the gums—flapping the keys?—with you guys, as always.

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