Phantom stats.

 

Watching David Stearns announced as the Mets' new president of baseball ops yesterday, my feeling was that for all his easy confidence, this guy is going to last five minutes in this town.

But who knows? 

At least the Mets have a plan. The Yankees have denial.

As Alphonso, our Dauntless Leader, pointed out yesterday, the Yanks' vaunted Youth Movement has proved less than thrilling. In fact, as far as movement goes, it's more like a compost dump truck backing up at a high rate of speed on a crowded street.

None of the Young Yankees thrown into the breech to rescue Brian Cashman's job this September looked like they had any kind of major-league future, with the possible exceptions of Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells. And as we know, the Yanks' crack(ed) coaching and training staff has already ruined The Martian for next year—and possibly forever.

But even before that, you had the the Oswaldii, Peraza and Cabrera taking giant steps backward all season long. And how about those promising minor-league hurlers, huh? Why, once again, it looks like...all right, once again, the Yankees don't have a promising minor-league pitcher in sight. Why should this season be different than any of the last 25 seasons or so?

All of which brings us to The Denial. 

During what little I could stomach of the Yankees' last game of the year, Michael Kay and the happy apologists at YES were busy flashing a graphic claiming that our new shortstop, Young Anthony Volpe, had a 3.4 WAR—better than almost any Yankee rookie on record. Better, even, than Derek Jeter's 3.3 rookie WAR in 1996.

Here we go again.

First, it's not at all clear that Volpe's WAR was, in fact, 3.3. Baseball reference puts it at 3.2. Though baseballreference also puts his OWAR (offensive WAR) at 1.7, and his DWAR (defensive WAR) at 2.4, so shouldn't that add up to a WAR of 4.1 and HEY LADY!

Ahem. But I digress.

According to the self-same baseballreference, Jeter's WAR in 1996 was a tad better, at 3.3. (An OWAR of 4.4 and a DWAR of -0.1, which should add up to a total of 4.3 AND DON'T GET ME STARTED!).

Hmm, which is right? And who cares? Because obviously, this is bunkum.

Here are Anthony Volpe's hitting stats for 2023:

62 runs, 113 hits, 23 doubles, 4 triples, 21 home runs, 60 RBI, 24 stolen bases in 29 attempts, 52 walks, 167 strikeouts, and a slash line of:

.209/.283/.333/.666—the devil's number!

Here are Derek Jeter for 1996:

104 runs, 183 hits, 25 doubles, 6 triples, 10 home runs, 78 RBI, 14 stolen bases in 21 attempts, 48 walks, 102 strikeouts, and a slash line of:

.314/.370/.430/.800.

Please don't try to tell me these numbers are even vaguely comparable. 

So how can Young Anthony have close to or better overall numbers than Jeets? Well, the fielding, right? Everyone knows that Derek Jeter was the worst fielder whatever was, unable to get to any ball not hit directly at him. Right?

So, Volpe's fielding average for 2023?  .970.  560 chances, 186 putouts, 357 assists, 17 errors, and 63 double-plays.

Jeter's?  .969.  710 chances, 244 putouts, 444 assists, 22 errors, and 83 double-plays.

Come again?

That's right: Derek Jeter, oh slothful of field, had 150 MORE chances than Volpe did.  He made 5 more errors—but turned 20 more double-plays.

Huh.

Now I know what you're thinking! Yes, the game has changed. Yankees pitchers in 1996 gave up 102 more walks and struck out 300 fewer batters than they did in 2023 (610-508, and 1,139-1,439, respectively).  

Still, that would mean out of 402 balls more hit into play, Derek Jeter snagged 150 of them, or over 37 percent. Are 37 percent of all balls hit into play hit to the shortstop? I don't think so.

All of which would imply that Derek Jeter had at least as much range at shortstop as Anthony Volpe. If not more.

So, let's review: Jeter was a vastly superior player in "offense" (that is to say, "hitting"), and at least the same if not better on "defense" (that is to say, "fielding"). 

Frankly, I'd say this was another, classic case of lying with statistics. But I can't even tell where they're getting these stats from, never mind what they supposedly add up to. 

Bottom line: Anthony Volpe was nowhere near the sort of player Derek Jeter was as a rookie. That's no knock on him. But a .209 batting average and 167 strikeouts, IS.  

I'm sorry, Doug, who didn't want me to diss Volpe. I don't want to diss him myself. He's a likable kid with loads of potential. But unless he makes a big turnaround, he's looking more like, say, Amed Rosario, the young Mets shortstop who also seemed to have unlimited potential himself just a few years ago—and is now a back-up on his third major-league team.

Who can turn Volpe around? The instructors in THIS organization? He would be better advised to follow Aaron Judge's lead and seek out his own coaches, before it's too late.