Here's one you might have missed...Along with Trump's approval ratings - (42.4%) - and the betting line on Pelosi, Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight stat-wonk blog claims the Yanks picked Seattle's hipster-black-denim pockets on this week's James Paxton deal.
While he might not be a household name outside the Pacific Northwest, he (Paxton) offers the Yankees the potential for a second legit ace alongside Luis Severino.
This is metadata - aka mathematical juju. It's the secret sauce in all of Cooperstown Cashman's trade decisions, and along with boring Power Point presentations, it has a tendency to inspire lonnnnnng sentences.
Since his breakout 2017 season, Paxton ranks sixth in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (11.1) among pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings, sixth in strikeout percentage minus walk percentage (23.8 percent) and eighth in wins above replacement per 200 innings (5.7) — a rough measure of what a healthy starting pitcher might provide over a full season — trailing starters Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard and Severino, plus reliever Blake Treinen, who got a lot of work in last year.
Wow. You can start that sentence, go take a piss, answer some emails, eat a baloney sandwich, and still return for the finale. And let's give this guy credit: The argument is bolstered by statistical factados that most of us wouldn't bother to conceive, much less calculate. Bravo!
The Yankees starters were fifth in WAR last season and tied for ninth in ERA-, which accounts for park effects and the league run environment. Paxton provides a massive upgrade from New York’s weakest link in Sonny Gray (5.26 ERA). The Yankees’ staff was already good, and now it might be great.
Well, I hope this guy is right. And I cannot dispute this avalanche of WAR and Statcast launch speeds. In the face of Fangraphs and Sabermetrics, civilian fans can only shake our heads and accept the naked ridicule of old age. You know nothing, Jon Snow. If I had a nickel for every time I'm mocked for noting a batting average instead of OBS+ or LIPS or VORP...
Listen: I hate to be the doddering coot who was permanently traumatized by the 1980s, when trade after trade sent Yankee prospects out the door for the Jesse Barfields and Rick Rhodens of the world. That's mere anecdotal evidence, and it should have been buried with the Core Four. But like angry spirits in a haunted house, the corpses of bad trades refuse to stay buried, and when the best thing someone can say about a deal is that Jesus Montero turned out to be a bigger disappointment, well, that's still a long term ticket to mediocrity.
We all want this guy to be right. And if Paxton turns out to be a war horse, we'll come to love him. But the greatest enjoyment for a Yankee fan is watching a young player blossom, and no matter how you frame this, we just traded away our number one prospect. Right now, what I dread is what I see: That the Yankees - unhinged by Boston's success - are returning to the days of trading their future for a quick jolt. And once you climb into that dark hole, your only recourse is to keep trading.
With Paxton, the Yankees appear to be all-in on 2019. But if Hal Steinbrenner still plans to stay within his self-imposed salary cap - while Boston spends $230 million to satisfy the Fenway Nation's cravings - these trades are just beginning. Clint Frazier will be next, and then Estevan Florial. And no wonky analyses will salve that feeling of horror if Justus Sheffield turns into Scott McGregor.
Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. Let me take this moment to thank all who blog, who comment, and who just read this hellhole outpost and shake their fists at God. Let's all agree to hate bad Yankee deals but love ranting about them. I toast you all.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO YOU MR. DUQUE, ALPHONSO, HOSS, JOHN M, LEINSTERY, KD, LBJ, LB NO J, JFOB, 13 BIT, KEN FB, WARBLIST, URBAN FARMER, WHOEVER I LEFT OUT, AND THE REST OF THE SOUL TRAIN GANG.
ReplyDeleteIT SEEMS LIKE COOP REALLY LISTENS TO THESE "538 METAWONK" TYPES.
WHATEVER ALGORITHM HE IS ATTACHED TO, IS NOT GETTING IT DONE.
HE OUGHT TO PAY MOST OF HIS ATTENTION TO WHAT ALGORITHM MAKES YANKEE BATTERS ACTUALLY GET A BASE HIT WITH RISP WITH 2 OUTS OR LESS.
THAT, EASILY MAY BE THE BIGGEST WEAKNESS THESE YANKEE TEAMS HAVE HAD FOR THE LAST, 7-8 YEARS, (NOT TO MENTION A HUGE STRENGTH FOR THE RED SOX).
IT IS A WEAKNESS JUST AS GLARING, AS OUR STARTING PITCHING.
YET, IT IS A WEAKNESS THAT COOP IGNORES YEAR AFTER YEAR.
MY PARTIAL SOLUTION?
REPLACE NEIL WALKER WITH DANIEL MURPHY. (WALKER IS NO WIZARD WITH THE GLOVE, EITHER)
IT MAY COST A FEW MILLIONS MORE, BUT I BELIEVE IT SHOULD GO A LONG WAY TO IMPROVING OUR DISASTROUS PRODUCTION IN THESE SITUATIONS.
IF COOP IS SO BIG ON ANALYTICS, WHY IS HE NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO OUR ABYSMAL PERFORMANCE IN THIS CRUCIAL AREA?
Duque, I love this piece and want to thank you for it. We are on the same page except for one thing: I'm still not convinced that they are all-in on 2019. I know the arguments in favor of signing CC and Gardy, but I still don't agree with the logic. I think those two signings demonstrate that we are at the mercy of Hal's greed and his reluctance to spend money. Same with the Paxton deal. I don't give a rat's ass about 538, anymore, by the way. They have been wrong about too many things way too often. I just think to myself, when I evaluate a new deal, "what would George do?"
ReplyDeleteGeorge would have cut bait with CC and Gardy two years ago. George would have spent money on good players, not bargain basement schmucks. George would have strung Sonny by the balls from the elevated stanchions on River Avenue. George would have done what it takes to ensure we did not have half-wits for the coaching staff (yes, I'm talking to you Larry) or on the bench. George would have sent Boone home, re-hired Girardil, publicly humiliated Girardi in the papers after his first loss back, then found somebody else. YES, GEORGE WOULD HAVE FUCKED UP A LOT OF THINGS and the end results would have been the same, BUT NOT FOR LACK OF TRYING. I did not love George, but I never doubted that he wanted to win. I don't feel that way about Hal.
Brian Crackhead Cashman is not a top tier intellect. I'm sure he has his reasons - and HE is the real binders-clutching dude in this organization - but Brian is not a think-outside-the-box kind of guy. This sounds nebulous, especially to the stat-driven ilk, but Brian has NO FUCKING IMAGINATION. I'm going to leave it at that. Some of you will know what I am talking about, the rest of you can take a hike. I don't care. Anyway, I'd love for this piece to be true. And, if it is true, I will do my fucking mea culpas, my prostration before the bench, my kneeling at Canossa and be the first to embrace his greatness. Until then, I know what I know and I cannot un-know it.
And yes, ALL-CAPS, Happy Turkey Day to you and everybody else here. You have made this dark season of Yankee hell endurable. We will hopefully all be here again one day to watch the next pennant whipping in the vape-driven breezes above the stadium. We may take some casualties along the way, but I hope we come out on the other side.
I love you all.
Happy Thanksgiving to all and wtf happened to Torreyes? Why isn't he playing instead of Walker? What kind of ding dongs are running this show?
ReplyDeletePaxton will be a mediocrity with flashes of brilliance. Happy Thanksgiving to him as he suddenly has to pitch in the bright light of the big city.
Severino is an "established ace"? Huh, when did that happen?
ReplyDeleteI have seen a lot of aces pitching both for the Yankees and agin' 'em, since I first started following the sport 52 years ago, beginning with Whitey Ford.
One thing they all had in common? They showed up on time for the games.
I gotta go with 13bit. I fear that something much more cynical is afoot.
ReplyDeleteThese signings and this bad trade point to nothing but covering up the fact that Hal is NOT all in for 2019, or any other year, save for when it comes to the bottom line.
Right now, his main focus is getting a stadium/luxury condo development for his Pigeons. He has dreams of an international sports empire, backed by Saudi money, probably centered in England someday.
Brian Cashman is our worst nightmare: a diabolically good office politician devoid of any other talent or intelligence.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: the older I get, the more amazed I am at how people do their jobs. I literally would not know the first thing about digging a ditch.
But any half-dozen of us chosen randomly from this site could do Cashman's job better than he does.
The man has been kept afloat only by the magnificent work of his predecessors. In 22 seasons, he has failed to build a championship team on his own.
Most of that time, he has had an advantage unknown to any other general manager, in any other time, place, or sport: the freedom to use almost unlimited funds at a time when his competitors are highly restricted in what they can spend.
He has failed nonetheless.
And on that note—happy Thanksgiving again to you wonderful turkeys!!!
Amen, Hoss, amen...
ReplyDeleteGreat article
ReplyDeleteHappy thanksgiving to my pinstripe pals in the USA
If 13bit runs for office, I'll vote for him.
ReplyDelete...and if John M runs for office, I'll vote for him - - then I'll go back to my car, change my (Yankee) hat and my Oakeleys, and go back and vote again - - rinse and repeat, at will.
ReplyDeleteGood food, great companionship, fine drink, and a happiest of holidaze to all my brothers & sisters on this, my favorite blog. Love, and a piece of the Rock to each and every one of you! LB (No J)
Ah-hem, Whitey may have showed up on time (We don't really know; sportswriters covered for stars back then.), but he also famously showed up drunk and/or hung over.
ReplyDelete
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