Yankees First Half Record
58-23 (.716)Yankees Second Half Record (so far)
12-13 (.480)
As a team, the Yankees have hit .266/.360/.498 (.858 OPS) and scored 162 runs in the second half, the most in baseball (by a large margin).
I know there are certain guys struggling at the plate (Donaldson, Benintendi), but the lineup has not been the problem.
It's the starting rotation.
Gerrit Cole (4.97 ERA in 6 GS)
Jameson Taillon (5.18 ERA in 5 GS)
Jordan Montgomery (5.55 ERA in 5 GS)
Nestor Cortes (2.91 in 4 GS)
Luis Severino (4.50 ERA in 2 GS)
Domingo German (6.39 ERA in 3 GS)
Here's the thing I've noticed:
In the first half, the Yankees pitching staff was one of the best at suppressing home runs.
In the second half, the Yankees pitching staff has been one of the worst at suppressing home runs.
April: 0.66 HR/9 (4th)
May: 0.87 HR/9 (5th)
June: 0.99 HR/9 (7th)
July: 1.28 HR/9 (25th)
As soon as it got hot, we started coughing up the home run ball.
So the question: Was July (and August's 8 HR in 3 games) a blip or a course correction?
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38 comments:
The timing of the trade plus the leaks about the Yankees being engaged in talks about Lopez with Marlins points to a failed deal that he thought he had in place to replace Monty.
He pulled the trigger too soon and fucked the team, the fans, and the organization up.
It's the only logical explanation.
What he also didn't realize was, that pulling the plug on this tight knit group of pitchers would leave a hole larger than the physical loss of Monty.
Compound it with no replacement for Monty, failing to get the #1 pitcher out there, the removal of Sears and the 60 IL for Setback Sevi and he left them flying without a net.
Cole (who is fragile to begin with) now has to step up because every game is a BIG GAME and they are RELYING ON HIM. He doesn't seem to be able to handle that.
It was INCREDIBLY stupid and This is the most screwed we have been in a long time.
Brian Cashman cannot lead men.
He is an idiot. Truly.
Doug is 127% spot on - plus this has also been written about all around the real and virtual sports world since it happen.
The hammering of Cashman needs to continue.
And that "hole larger than the physical loss of Monty" should be covered ad nauseam during the weekend series against the Cardinals.
Monty is scheduled to start on Saturday against German.
"won't that be a pisser"
We are at the mercy of a moron.
If this current streak is a blip, it is a blip the size of Texas.
Right now, the Yankees, barring a complete collapse, are going to win the division.
The only thing left to do now is to get everyone healthy for October and maintain home field advantage throughout. Two big, very important IFs.
IF they get healthy (particularly Sevy and Stanton), we've got a good shot to get past the Asstros. IF they maintain home field advantage (a really big IF) that might very well be the deciding factor.
I'm hoping the acquisition of Das Boot will give Hicks some incentive to revitalize his game. He's got to consider he's the odd man out once MasterBader gets healthy (another big IF) and if he doesn't step up, he could be gone ala Gallo.
And, in spite of all this angst, isn't it wonderful that Gallo is finally gone?
I liked Montgomery because he was a homegrown guy. We've had what... two of them in 20 years that made it to the rotation?
But he was more of a no. 4 starter than an ace.
My dislike of this trade is more about weakening our depth.
Jordan Montgomery -> traded
Luis Severino -> 60-day IL
J.P. Sears -> traded
Luis Gil -> TJS
Ken Waldichuk -> traded
Hayden Wesneski -> traded
That is so much SP depth to lose.
(I know Gil's injury happened earlier, just wanted to point out the weakness of our situation.)
Nestor Cortes is approaching a career-high in innings.
Frankie Montas had shoulder inflammation last month and his career ERA is a full run higher away from Oakland.
Jameson Taillon has an ERA above 5.00 in his last 10 games and appears out of gas (same thing happened last year).
Domingo German has a career 4.78 ERA as a starter.
Clarke Schmidt has made three career MLB starts.
Deivi Garcia can't handle AAA.
It doesn't take a psychic to envision how another injury or some form of bad luck will wreck our rotation. And the very fragile depth holding everything up will collapse.
I stumbled on this (from a tweet by Ken Ducey) on FanSided:
Gerrit Cole in 14 starts with Jose Trevino Catching:
2.74 ERA, .193 BA, 34.7 K%
Cole with Higashioka, including today's start (his 8th):
5.97 ERA, .272 BA, 31.8 K%
I assume these are the actual stats. If so: How hard is this to figure out? Does Lorna Boone want the 2.74 era guy or the 5.97 era guy? Is Higgy's bat so important in the line-up? I have not noticed that.
I hope they don't get Cashman to handle the Griner negotiations, he'll give away half the country and the next day Buster Olney will write a story about how he fleeced the Russians.
@Doug K. "He pulled the trigger too soon and fucked the team, the fans, and the organization up. It's the only logical explanation."
Yes, but only if you believe that Yankee management really does want to win. Take away that premise, and there is a perfectly logical explanation: the torpedo theory.
In fact, the Torpedo theory pretty much explains everything that has gone on since 2009.
HAL does not have winning on his priority list (and I've heard him say that he likes to-do lists). As Hoss and I have pointed out, everything can be explained by risk management/sweet spot. HAL wants this season torpedo-ed. Winning would create all sorts of financial upheaval for him. Doubtless HAL owns many businesses, not just the NYY. So unless his other businesses suddenly start failing, he doesn't need the Yankees to win and generate huge profits. They're already generating enough profit (or revenue). He doesn't want to upset the cart.
In essence, we've been paying for the 2009 WS championship all these years. How long will we continue to pay the piper? Only HAL and his accountants know. When it's time to win again, they'll authorize Cashman to throw around enough gold to sink the Titanic and we'll have a real chance at winning once again.
That's why Cashman won't be gone after this season's debacle is over. The only way he's going out is in a hearse. From HAL's point of view, Cashman is doing just fine.
Ba-Boone might be gone after the season. Why Ba-Boone, when he was just a puppet? Because another goal of HAL & Co. is to maintain good public relations. Makes it easier to keep up the charade. So Ba-Boone could become a sacrificial lamb.
The problem with the theory that Cashman blundered is that such a scenario involving the Marlins would have been a three way deal. Which it was not. There was nothing contingent. He simply got rid of Montgomery for a CF with a broken foot.
If you believe that the Yankee management is really trying to win, and that they made that blunder, and all of the weird moves and blunders that they've made since 2009, I think the logic starts to fall apart. Because they don't blunder all the time, either. They make smart moves when they want to make smart moves. They spend money when they want to spend. They turn cheapskate when they don't want to spend. It's all finance driven. Winning is not on the priority list.
We've become one of those franchises that we used to laugh at and despise. The ones that are tax shelters, the ones that win once and then tank, the ones that field perennially mediocre teams. They all do it a little differently, but they're all finance driven and winning ain't the priority.
@JoeFOB, I noticed that from the start of the season. Last year, when Sanchez was here, Princess Diva Cole couldn't throw to Sanchez and had to throw to Higashioka. Now that Sanchez is gone, Princess Diva Cole cannot throw to Higashioka, he now has to throw to Jose Trevino. Yes, there is a big discrepancy there, but I feel some sympathy for Ba-Boone on this point. Cole is obviously a princess and a diva and a pansy and a pain in the ass.
Not trying to be snarky, but getting rid of Gallo is potentially the best move of the deadline. Benitendinitis needs to do more than walk and Hicks needs to contribute…something. Unfortunately we have him under contract for THREE MORE YEARS. Bader time might be around Seder time.
More of Carpenter, esp. at YS…RF/DH for now, then platoon with Donaldson at 3b. But start every game at YS. Trevino can’t catch every game, but needs to play as much as physically possible.
The farm system seems bereft of pitching now. Pretty much Clarke Schmidt and that’s it. Our big 4 (plus Estevan “Rodney Dangerfield” Florial) survived the big purge, but they’ve all been slumping a bit recently. Andujar is a broken man. If he is not on the 26 man roster next year, he must be placed on waivers, so get ready to waiver good bye to him then.
Come Oct. we will go as far as the pitching will take us and it seems like it’ll be a short journey, even with Cole at the wheel.
Cashman? His brains came out with his hair.
Well put, Hammer! And totally agree about Cole. I've never seen such a big-time pitcher look so often like he was going to have a crying jag on the mound.
Guys like Jim Palmer would shoot bullets with their eyes at fielders when they screwed up. Bob Gibson or Don Drysdale or Juan Marichal—or Pedro—would as soon throw a baseball at your head as look at you. But none of them seemed ready for the fainting couch.
I think what it comes down to is, a combination of HAL not wanting to win (enough) but to hold this steady state of just-good-enough...and Cashie thinking that he CAN win, in a way that makes him, and him alone look absolutely brilliant.
Which he can't do. And which is probably the reason why, in the end, HAL never gets rid of him.
The Gallo dump was certainly the best move, but it came a winter too late. The only reason they got rid of him was the public relations nightmare that it was becoming. They wanted to keep him, I'm sure. They must have been crying when they made the move. They loved the financial aspects of the Gallo acquisition.
It's the same reason that all these losers are still here: Stanton, Hicks, Chapman, Torres, Donaldson (he only got here this year, but I'm sure he'll be around for next year too), Jamison Taillon.
Hammer, we owe Donaldson 24M for next year. He will be out starting 3rd Baseman in 2023.
It's a dedication to mediocrity.
Hammer -
"The problem with the theory that Cashman blundered is that such a scenario involving the Marlins would have been a three way deal. Which it was not. There was nothing contingent. He simply got rid of Montgomery for a CF with a broken foot."
Why couldn't it have been a separate deal? Only linked in that Brain was set to replace Monty. No need for a three team deal.
Just before the deadline was reached Onley mentioned Gleyber as a possible chip. He says nothing without approval. They could have been softening us up (like we needed it...) for them to move him. I'm thinking to Miami. The Marlins were on the cusp of trading Lopez then pulled back at the last second.
Also -- Doesn't a deep run in the playoffs generate big bucks for the team in TV and live gate.
Then there's all the the WS Champ merch. New hats, new tee shirts etc.
Better team = better ratings for Yes as well. More ad revenue.
And of course, the added value to the international brand.
There is no reason to not want to win from a financial POV.
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Hammer again -
Now that we've disagreed... Good point on Cole and his need for special catchers.
@Doug K., yeah, but that's just it, deep run in the playoffs, world series, international value, ad revenue. From a financial POV, no reason to not want to win.
Except if you consider that HAL most probably has many different businesses. For financial reasons, you may not want to win. (Risk management, taxes, etc.) None of us can know for sure unless we sit in one of their financial meetings, but to me it sure looks like that's what they're doing. Even if this is his only business, who knows what his finances look like. He might have tons of revenue from interest or stock sales. There are plenty of rich people who use tax shelters. They want their businesses to lose money in order to offset the money they make overall.
That's how Trump gets away with paying zero federal income tax. That's how Amazon pays no federal income tax.
Not saying HAL loses money on the Yankees, just saying he's found a sweet spot and doesn't want to blow up his revenues. You can certainly disagree as to whether this is correct or not, but don't you think it's at least plausible?
Rich people and big corporations do it all the time. And the latest example of it is the Washington Nationals, with the Soto trade. They actually admitted that they wanted to manage the risk in order to sell the team.
As to the value of the franchise, HAL has said that he's never selling. If he's never selling, the value of the franchise is basically meaningless. He doesn't have to worry about franchise value. From a financial standpoint, he can do whatever he wants.
I don't buy the "Gerrit Cole needs his special catcher" stuff either.
Last year, Gary Sanchez was the villain and Cole needed Higashioka to hold his hand.
This year, Higashioka is the villain and Cole needs Jose Trevino to hold his hand.
Next year, Trevino will be the villain and Cole will need Austin Wells to hold his hand.
Etc.
Enough. Cole is the highest paid pitcher in MLB history. He should be able to compete regardless of who is behind the plate. No other Yankee pitcher gets these lame excuses from fans.
Also, Cole's worst start of the year (the Minnesota game) featured Trevino behind the plate.
The issue with looking at catchers ERA is that there are too many variables and it takes YEARS of data to have any meaning whatsoever.
Cole had 31 starts with Higashioka behind the plate entering this season and had a 2.94 ERA. But now that Cole gets blown up in a few games, suddenly it's Higashioka's fault and the previous data means nothing? BS.
(You see how volatile catchers ERA is?)
If you watched the first inning yesterday, you'd see Higashioka set up and Cole miss his spot by more than a foot on the home runs. I don't get how that's the catcher's fault.
The movie Slapshot with Paul Newman has the perfect example. He ends up telling his team that "we were nothing but a rich broad's tax writeoff". (The rich owner of the hockey club didn't want the team to win.) It was sad, but all too real, not just fantasy.
Thursday SLAPSHOT reference - still a wonderful, unexpected sports gem from director George Roy Hill.
Sorry -- now back to our regularly scheduled programming . . .
@Zachary, and maybe Sanchez got a bit of a raw deal too. It's time for Cole to deliver the goods. Or if he flounders, try to make himself better and stop making these ridiculous excuses and throwing catchers under the bus. Much of the time, Cole pitches like a raw rookie. He makes stupid mistakes and stupid pitch selections. It's all on him, not the catcher. And all of this from a guy who supposedly is a "student of the game".
Hammer -
"You can certainly disagree as to whether this is correct or not, but don't you think it's at least plausible?"
It's plausible. But windfalls can be manipulated from a taxation point of view by his crack team of accountants.
But if you are correct - then it's too bad that he's using the Yankees to balance his tax liability as opposed to one of his companies that is not in the public eye and effects far fewer people.
Maybe it goes back to his childhood and the inattention he received because George was busy with his real boys (The team).
Either way - one thing we can both easily agree on is that Hal sucks and Brian is a moron.
Maybe Cole should soak his hands in water between innings so he gets "prune fingers" That way he'll get a better grip on the ball.
Rich or poor, if you make a lot of money, you pay taxes. But even after the tax bill, you still have a lot of money. I never got the write-off stuff. It's not like this is the 1950s or 60s. Nobody pays that much in taxes anymore. Whatever.
Cashman is an idiot. Boone is an idiot, but more likable. Still, an idiot.
Cole is a loser. His career was built on sticky stuff. When that was banned, his consistency went out the window.
It's not like HAL would reject the championship trophy if the Yankees did happen to win this year, but I'm sure that he'd schedule an emergency meeting for the next morning with all his financial advisers and accountants. Meanwhile, it seems to me that they're doing everything possible to torpedo this season.
They didn't get Castillo or Soto. And the guys they got mostly are injuries waiting to happen. What really riles me is that they passed up Soto. We could've had the lefty hitter we've needed since Robinson Cano left. And we (apparently) got out-bid by San Diego!
@JM, but Trump paid zero federal income taxes for more than 20 years. And it was probably legal. Amazon pays no federal income tax. And that's probably all legal. I've heard that most big companies pay zero taxes. Most of the taxes are paid by middle income and lower class, unfortunately. Because there are no tax write-offs for salaried workers. Trump and his Congress even limited the state and local tax deduction to only 10,000. So now even that's been compromised for most folks. But big companies can buy up property, put up buildings, and take paper depreciation losses. And rich people who own multiple companies just take a huge (paper) loss on one company, which offsets all the profits from the other companies, and they pay zero taxes.
So apparently the word on the street is that what Moron Cashman did was sacrifice the value of the team from Aug-Sept...to make them better in October(Postseason) which sea absurd but...whatever helps the YES network sleep at night
Joe, you may be right. As a great man once said, "Never underestimate the role of stupidity in human affairs."
I remember when the Knicks were suddenly running amok in the NBA in 1988-89, I think. They had it all together, beat Detroit all 4 times they played them that regular season.
Then management decided that they HAD to change the whole way the team played for the playoffs, and brought in Kiki Vanderweghe. The team didn't even make it to the conference semis, as Detroit won it all.
This could be how Cashie is thinking...
...About the finances:
Yes, Doug, you're right: If the Yanks were to win it all, the team's revenue would surge. Although...that surge would be automatically limited by the idiotic decision to pull out tens of thousands of seats in favor of luxury boxes. Just the decision to build the Stadium this way committed HAL, in a way, to never going all-out to win a ring.
What Hammer and I have been saying is that going all in would take some risks—risks HAL doesn't want to take. It would mean risking deals like, say, the signing of Pat Corbin, who was key in getting Washington a championship, but who has tanked since.
And even if you win big—and keep winning—you have to keep paying. Multiple championships means ever larger contracts for the leading players, who are essentially declining assets...
...Now good-to-great Yankee GMs managed this for decades, wheeling and dealing, judging when to dump veterans and pick-up young guys from other teams.
You would think that, for a start, HAL would at least jettison Cashman, and bring in those small-market whizzes who know how to continually find you terrific young ballplayers for cheap.
But even that entails more risks than HAL wants to take. A team of budding superstars will still want to get paid, and who knows how many will blow out their arms or knees, or be discovered as juicers.
Hence, Cashman, the guy who seems able to hit that sweet spot all the time: the Yankees are contenders, but almost never win it all.
And never underestimate the power of business fraternity. MLB is a cartel, and most big businessmen are natural clubmen. They like keeping it all nice and cozy with their fellow billionaires...
What HAL DOESN'T get is how much winning IS the Yankees' brand.
This isn't just the Olde Towne Team. The Yanks are thought of a dominant, in a city that likes to think of itself as dominant. You rust that brand through long enough, and/or a player takes over the Mets, and your brand is gone.
But what does HAL, personally, care? He's already salted away countless billions—and under the rules of MLB, it's almost impossible to actually LOSE money.
Plus, it will take years for Yankees fans to get so bitterly disillusioned that they start staying home and changing the channel. By that time, HAL will be gamboling about his Florida estates in his kinky boots, and some young Steinbrenner or another will be in charge.
I beg to differ, the lineup has been a problem for years. The Yankees score 12 runs one game and have difficulty scoring in the next game. Too many low average hitters that strike out too much. The Yankees are still waiting for the homerun. Genius Cashman went into the season with a questionable pirching staff.
This trend of mediocrity extends well before the All-Star break. The Yankees were 13-13 for the entire month of July. What you behold now is a .500 team that is likely to remain such (at best) for the rest of the season--for the rest of your life, as long as Cashman (duque's new favorite pet rock) remains in charge.
Do not totally discount the possibility that the team’s gyrations and poor roster decisions are not part of some gigantic financial shell game (though such things are real; the wealthy have been sticking it to common people since the dawn of civilization) but rather due to simple incompetence and poor decision making topped off with a sprinkling of bad luck. Sometimes the simplest explanation is also the correct one, no matter how much you just can’t believe it.
@Hoss, great points about the luxury boxes and the clubmen business fraternity. Both of these things can also drive mediocrity. Yeah, as crazy as it seems, big business owners can get complacent and comfortable with their own competitors! Nobody wants to rock the boat. Everyone is rich, everyone just wants to keep kicking the can down the street, keep the ball rolling. Nobody gets hurt, everybody stays rich. Risk Management. It's the rich businessman's version of "chillin' out". "Hey man, What's up?" "Just chillin'."
Every year, for the past decade it seems, at some point in the Yankees season I check out. Last year it was pretty early. This year I almost checked out before the season began…. But then that warm spring air and the smell of the hay and I couldn’t help myself…. The radio was on, and as implausible as it seemed, it was happening. This bunch of bums was winning. But I’m really feeling the urge, especially after the IDIOTIC Montgomery trade… to throw in the towel here.
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