Judge will have a major decline.
His worst category will be stolen bases. Of which he will have 7.
You can look up my HR forecast, or I can give it to you here:
39 HRs and 39 RBIs resulting therefrom ( is this one word or two?)
He may get a few more RBIs from bases loaded situations, where he walks in a run. These will be offset by the number of times he is thrown out trying to score from second. Net zero.
I think he has 2 errors in the outfield this season, and 11 assists. May earn a gold glove if he plays in RF only.
My " over and under" for days on IR ( not necessarily consecutive) is 25. I am taking the over.
He will have a problem with his batting thumb. Or another largish digit.
He will start using a lighter bat in August.
We'll start hearing a lot about his girlfriend in September.
No contract extension or raise at the conclusion of this season.
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It's OK with me - should be w/you, too -- if Judge has an average year, for him. The hope is that he is able to play 150-155 games or so. Maybe he hits .298 and drives in 110 runs? Maybe he reaches base a bit more, strikes out a bit less?
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But I've been trying to digest the information that's come out so far this spring.
1. Montas had an operation. WHY NOW? Why not in September? Did the team trade for a guy who will not contribute until AFTER he's a free agent? REALLY?
2. Catcher Ben R -- who has numbers that are not impressive -- can't show up to play, most of the time. Lots of different stuff gets injured. He's a walking "call the ambulance" type. We already have Hicks, don't we?
3. NYYs might play Stanton in the field. In right field, in home games. Maybe.
Who the F traded for these guys? A pitcher who can't pitch and needs surgery anyway. A catcher who can't show up. An outfielder/DH who has special requirements for playing in the field (and is going to get hurt anyway, sooner or later)........
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Also, I can't remove the images in my mind of Roberto Clemente playing RF, throwing baserunners out at 3B. And home.
I was never a Pirates fan. But how could you not be a Roberto fan?
Don't we want a guy in RF who can throw people out when they're doing something idiotic on the basepaths...????
Isn't that guy named Judge?
Fewest RBI in a 30+ HR season = 59 RBI
Curtis Granderson (2016, NYM)
Jedd Gyorko (2016, STL)
Kyle Schwarber (2017, CHC)
Cedric Mullins (2021, BAL)
Fewest RBI in a 40+ HR season = 80 RBI
Joey Gallo (2017, TEX)
Mike Trout (2022, LAA)
Fewest RBI in a 50+ HR season = 110 RBI
Brady Anderson (1996, BAL)
Fewest RBI in a 60+ HR season = 131 RBI
Aaron Judge (2022, NYY)
Interesting how all these records belong to the modern era.
I could see Judge setting the record in the 40+ or 50+ HR category, looking at the rest of this lineup.
That's the crux of the matter, Zach. The rest of the lineup. If they suck, Judge's numbers go down. If they somehow hit decently or better, his numbers go up. RBI of course, but maybe average, too. He can be clutch.
Which doesn't exist according to the stat boys.
Alphonso: 39 HR, 39 RBI
Yeah, sounds impossible, but it can be done. Not because Judge sucks and can't hit with guys on base, but because there never is anyone on base when he comes up. Which will be partly because Judge hits leadoff half the time. And the other half the time, he hits in the 2 slot. And because Ba-Boone draws up the stupidest lineups in the business. And because most of our lineup sucks anyway.
Remember the 50 goals in 50 games thing in hockey? Rocket Richard, Mike Bossy?
Well, one of these days, somebody in MLB will be chasing the baseball version of that, 50 homers, with only 50 RBI. And whereas the hockey version of the record was good to have, the baseball version of 50HR/50RBI is a record nobody wants to have. Except maybe Joey Gallo.
Invaluable stats as always, Zach. And yeah, I think Hammer is right. It's not just the lineup, it's where Judge is positioned in it.
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