According to the odds online from baseball reference today, your New York Yankees...remain the heavy favorite to win the American League pennant, and the World Series.
Before yesterday's 7-0 blowout loss to a bad Orioles team, the Yanks were over 99 percent certain to make a playoff spot, over 35 percent certain to win the pennant...and still 20.4 percent certain to win the World Series.
That's right: after losing 4 of their previous 5 games going into yesterday, their chances of winning the Series...actually increased slightly.
The culprit, of course, is our old friend, Pythagoras, who no doubt would be chortling with rage if he saw his mathematical theorems misused like this to gull the suckers.
Most likely, had the bullpen been able to hold yesterday's debacle to the one- or two-run loss the Yankees are used to sustaining without so much as a whimper, they would be over 25-percent favorites to win the Series.
Instead, their numbers plunged. All the way to...a 98.7 certainty to make the playoffs, a 34.3 percent chance to win the pennant, and an 18.3 percent chance to win it all.
Those pennant and World Series percentages are, respectively almost three times and over three times the next highest numbers for an AL team, in this case the Wandering A's (at 13.2 and 6.0).
This is despite the Yankees just having lost 4 of 5 games, sustained devastating injuries for which there are no replacements, and seen their bullpen, lineup, and top remaining minor-league prospect, all implode. They are now 3 games behind the Rays in the East Division loss column.
The Rays...who are given barely one-sixth the chance the Yankees supposedly have to make the Series (3.4 percent).
Over in the NL, the Brewers—a scrappy bunch who just ran rings around our heroes—are supposed to have only a 13.9 percent chance to win it all...same as the Dodgers, who have a slightly better chance of winning the pennant.
In other words, according to these monkeyshines, the Yanks will cruise through the American League, then trounce the Bums in the Fall Classic.
Uh-huh.
Hear me now and believe me later: the schneid came early this year, and the Yankees hopped aboard.
Along with all of the other problems cited above, the facts are that other Bomber injuries are just waiting to be announced (looking at you, Cam Schlittler); Aaron Judge, great as he remains, is noticeably slowed and uncertain at the plate; Bellinger seems to have lost his power, and there's nothing to call up from Scranton.
They re-ran last year, all right...and the results are predictably worse, as always happens in a dynamic game that is constantly in flux, whether Hal & Pal like it or not. This is a sloppy, spiritless, distracted ball club, reassured at every turn by management that they are doing just great, as the money keeps flowing in.
Let's face it: These Yankees are not going to win the World Series. They are not going to win the pennant. They are not going to win their division. They are not going to join the 40 percent of the league that makes the playoffs.
Don't be fooled by Greeks bearing phony mathematical theories!
Remember our motto at SSG:
Gambling is stupid enough. Don't gamble stupid!
This has been a public service announcement.
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14 comments:
Definitely have a shot in the A.L. If they play a scrappy team like the Rays, could they get past them. The Yankees bats too often disappear. I do not believe that The Yankees are suited to get by a National League team. Last team The Yankees played The Dodgers, they were embarrassed.
If I was a betting man, I'd say the probability of the Yankees making the playoffs this year is around 30-40%. The probability of the Yankees winning the World Series? So miniscule, it's like negative infinity. Only divine intervention would save them. (Which is not happening, because God helps those who help themselves. Not those who intentionally fuck up managing their team for financial reasons.)
Have you noticed that the Metsies are playing better of late? Yep, that's right, they're gettin' ready for us. Dum de dum dum.
More Yankee & Ex-Yankee news:
Word is that Mr. Cantrun's calf injury seems much worse than previously envisioned. Cantrun really cannot run now. They needed to put this guy out to pasture over the winter.
Alex Verdugo had major shoulder surgery. Looks like he might be done. (He was already done, but he might be done done this time.) 29 years old, turning 30 tomorrow. Some guys get old real fast.
Too bad about Vertigo, because Cashman would've picked him up soon.
Wasn't Volpe coming up against the Orioles a bad omen? Let's remember that infamous game that Volpe & Vertigo combined to toss into the can. It was against the Orioles. Volpe botched a routine grounder to blow the save for, I think it was, Clay Holmes. Then Vertigo fell on his face in the outfield trying to catch a fairly routine liner. Probably the first time in major league history that two guys whose names start with the letter "V" combined to blow a game to all to hell.
We keep looking at the standings; a meaningless statistic to Prince Hal.
As long two things happen, all is well in the corporate offices: the hope of getting to and winning the World Series and the Yankees continuing to put fannies in the seats. The two are interrelated.
It is the HOPE that keeps killing us every year; the Yankees will reach the one million mark in attendance sometime in the next two weeks, well on their way to the four million mark. Business is good as long as there is hope.
That is all that matters. Whether the Yankees actually get to or win the World Series is of little real importance, as long as the cash register keeps ringing.
And if the Yankees do get to the World Series, Booooooone will find a way to fuck it up.
Aaron Judge advised Volpe to block out the noise and just do your job. Yeah, the trouble is that Volpe is not good enough to do his job. Which is to make the routine plays at SS and hit some liners, get on base, score some runs. Volpe might be a good player on some other ball club that has good coaching. He's lost here.
Early indications are that this might be the season that Aaron Judge starts fraying at the edges. It was bound to happen. Nobody stays at the top of their game forever.
I didn't like it when Judge went for the World Baseball Classic. Coming off the elbow issue from last year, seemed to me that he could've used the rest, and a slow spring training to ramp up. Instead, he said he worked all off season, and then went straight into the frying pan, trying to win a championship, any championship. He should've played the World Stickball Championship in the Da Bronx.
When an old man showed up at the gates of Valhalla and challenged Thor to a wrestling match, everybody laughed. That old man forced Thor's knee to touch the ground and won the match. Father Time always wins in the end.
Could not agree more, Hammer. If I were a major-league owner, I would do everything I could to halt the World Fucking Baseball Breaker of Ballplayers Classic, and if I could not, I would quietly slip my best players whatever they wanted to opt out. It is a ridiculous imitation of the World Cup, played hat the wrong time of year.
Judge is still our champion, of course, and I will root for him always. But he's definitely missing a half-step (half-swing?). Why would he not, at 34? They should have signed Grisham to be his legs in the late innings of laughers...
As for Volpe, about three games worth of solid singles, fielding routine groundballs, and stealing a base or two would put the home crowd solidly on his side. No can do.
I would agree with you about him benefiting from a team with better instruction...but I notice that Gleyber is as unmotivated and mediocre as ever. I think that sometimes the Yankee becomes too imbedded to undo.
Very astute, Dick Allen: Baseball is lousy with hope. Particularly the Yankees in recent years. It's what keeps us going—and what keeps the team from getting any better.
Yanks will probably break the million mark in attendance before Memorial Day—something that once would've been unimaginable. But I think the descent this year will be so fast and so steep that people will hesitate about re-upping.
But hey, Hal is probably planning to kill about half of next year anyway, hoping to drive home a salary cap.
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