Baseball Players Have No Intrinsic Value

 

As all the world wonders over whether Aaron Judge will re-sign with your New York Yankees, the debate over whether or not the Yanks should sign him veers into the usual quagmire of logic.

"Ten years? Eight years?" we hear over and over again. "Why, Judge is 30! He'll be terrible by the end of that contract!"

He may well be. But that argument misses several big forests for the trees, starting with the simple fact that baseball players have no intrinsic value.

To begin with, ballplayers never exist in stasis. They always tend to get better or worse, for a wide variety of reasons.

Age is one. It's generally thought that—without the latest Joy Juice—most baseball players peak at about 28. There is considerable evidence that it might even be much earlier—maybe as young as 21-25 for many players—because that's when they're at top physical condition, other teams haven't learned to pitch to them yet, etc. (This seems to be especially true for "speed" players, which Judge is not, good as he is at stealing bases.)

Other players—usually the best players—manage to make adjustments to aging. They take on what my brother-in-law calls "manpower"—sacrificing power for average as they put on a few pounds. (I don't think this much applies in Judge's case.) Or they pay attention—to pitchers, to the game in general, and gain (at least a little) in field smarts what they lose in athleticism.

Then there are what Rumsy called the known unknowns: injuries; wine, women, and song; the general ennui of 21st century life (this, again, is not something that really bothers a lot of ballplayers).  

So yes, Aaron Judge is 30 years old, and therefore is more likely to get injured in the years just ahead, and likely to be a lesser ballplayer—perhaps a much lesser ballplayer—near the end of an extended contract.

There was, therefore, an argument to be made for Brian Cashman and HAL to really think out just what they wanted to pay Judge BEFORE the 2022 season and, if it seemed like too much, to trade him and use the new players and the money saved to make over the team in interesting ways.

They didn't do that.

There've been all sorts of things written about how Aaron Judge, a very rich man at 29, "gambled" on himself and won. That's true—but the real gamble is the one that HAL and Cashie took, and they lost. They lost big time. If Judge walks now, they will have lost a huge amount of potential value, in the players or prospects they COULD have had for him.

Too late now.

But getting back to that "intrinsic value" thing. 

The algorithmic amongst us like to think of ballplayers purely in a theoretical, statistical value removed from the rest of the world, or at least just compared to other ballplayers. That way of thinking has its uses, and can be a valuable thing to do.

But it doesn't reflect the SITUATIONAL value of a ballplayer.

For instance, you might want to overpay, in players or cash, for that reliever or that DH because he's the one, missing element that will get you over the hump, and make you a champion (See the 2016 Cubs, and Sweatsman). You definitely want to look at the box office and the TV ratings, and think about what losing a player might do to them.

The Yankees, in 2022, led the AL with over 3.1 million fans—a HUGE jump over 2021, when they drew about 1.9 million. 

If Judge walks, considering the team that we know Cooperstown Cashman will put on the field without him, attendance could easily plunge back to that 1.9 million mark—or considerably lower.  Conservatively speaking, considering Yankee Stadium prices, that could mean a loss of $120 million—or three times an "outrageous" Judge yearly contract of $40 million. 

And we're not even talking about TV ratings, or the money to be gleaned from those fans who like to watch the Yankees on their phones, or their two-way, Dick Tracey wrist radios.

Judge by himself likely cannot win the Yankees a World Series. But say things break right, and they do take one, thanks to him having a great postseason (Hey, it can happen: look at A-Rod, 2009!). That's a huge haul for the Yankees right there.

And then there's the Yankees' brand, which contrary to what Hal Steinbrenner seems to believe is maintained only by them winning. A lot. Years of rebuilding with his moax of a GM is going to go nowhere, and likely to reduce revenue and interest exponentially. 

The more years with Cashman and without Judge, means the more years blowing hundreds of millions of dollars that could be safely tucked away into Steinbrenner kiddie trust funds.

So will Aaron Judge still be a record-busting hitter at 38? No, he will not. But that's the wrong question.

The right question is, "Is Aaron Judge the only thing standing between the New York Yankees and a years-long, financial bloodbath?" 

I'd say the answer to that, is yes.