Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Donaldson has pulled something, and the Yankees are now in second

Posted by el duque at 3:51 PM

Gerrit Cole comes through again, Tampa keeps winning, we're in second, and scaredy-cat Baltimore has already postponed tomorrow's game, because - boo hoo - they're afraid of getting a little wet. 

10 comments:

The Hammer of God said...

Tampa keeps going like this, they'll win 1st place easily with at least 120 wins.

I still think Yankees' best chance is to bring up The Martian, stick him in LF, and let him develop up here. Hopefully, by playoff time, he will have developed to the point where he can make a difference. If you go with guys like Franchy Cordero, do you seriously think that'll get it done against the Tampons or the ASS-stros in the playoffs? There is too big of a drop off between Judge and the rest of the lineup. The Martian, right now, might be the second best hitter in the lineup.

They're afraid to bring him up right now because they're risk averse. But sometimes you've got to take a risk, if you want to win it all. If they don't win it this year, nobody is getting any younger.

April 5, 2023 at 4:08 PM
The Hammer of God said...

So far this year, Judge hitting #2 has not resulted in the "extra" at-bat with two outs in the team's last half inning at the plate.

We've been estimating that he'd get 50 extra at-bats over the course of the year. But that might be a little too high an estimate. If you estimate that he plays in 150 games, 50 extra at bats means that he came up as the potential final out of the inning in the team's final time at the plate in one-third of the games. There are nine hitters. What're the chances that one guy gets the extra at-bat in one third of the games?

There are a couple of things also that have not been mentioned in the #2 hitter strategy. Things to consider.

(1) Do you want Judge to be like a secondary lead off man and steal and run around the bases? I don't know about ya'll, but I cringe every time Judge steals. Because if he gets hurt, that'll probably be the end of any chance of winning the championship this year.

(2) Assuming that Judge gets an extra 50 at bats, how many of those would come with the team trailing in the late innings? So let's assume he hits 5 homers and 10 RBI in those 50 at bats. But you've reduced the probability of scoring in the 1st inning by having your best power hitter in the 2 slot. So how many runs in those 150 1st innings did you give up in exchange for the extra 50 at bats late in the game? If you think about it, every 1st inning at bat is an important at bat. Because the game will be scoreless or close, unless your pitcher got bombed in a home game. (But even if you're getting blown out, the best time to be getting blown out is in the 1st inning, because you have all 27 outs to try to come back.) So by definition, every 1st inning at bat will be important. But if you're trailing late in the game, or getting blown out, those 50 at bats might not have the same importance as a 1st inning at bat.

Sounds counter-intuitive, that a late game at bat might not be as important, but it can turn out that way. It has turned out that way so far. 5 of 6 games so far have been basically blow outs. Only today's game was close, 4-2 final.

April 5, 2023 at 4:30 PM
HoraceClarke66 said...

Agree on both counts, Hammer.

Franchy won't be around in October—and they might as well have kept Florial around for now.

I have the same worries about Judge. And consider this: In a close-and-late situation, our Gentle Giant is almost always going to face one of the opponent's very best pitchers, a guy with huge speed or an unhittable pitch.

In the first, he's very often going to face a guy who either a back-of-rotation starter, or someone who—like so many starting pitchers, even good ones—is having trouble getting the kinks out.

Sounds better to me!

April 5, 2023 at 5:23 PM
Rufus T. Firefly said...

Only reason to bat him that low in the order is if you have no one to hit 4 and 5 (e.g., Jackie Donaldson and Hicks). Otherwise you have 8 and 9 settling the table when the lineup turns. A bad move by any statically anus.

April 5, 2023 at 7:04 PM
Rufus T. Firefly said...

Smells a little of being ellsbury'd. Dear yahweh I hope so.

Wasn't running hard, tweaked gonad. Wait, they're shriveled from steroids. Pulled hammy.

Hopefully he'll be hitting off a tee by November of 24.

April 5, 2023 at 7:34 PM
Carl J. Weitz said...

@ Hammer....I've been pretty much alone since the beginning of last year advocating to let Jasson D. start in left. As I said then and argue now, you can't do worse than Gallo/Oswaldo/Cordero, etc. hitting and he's already better than any other candidate in the field.

Same bottom of the batting order piles of waste. Torres at third no one out and none of the next 3 hitters could get the ball out of the infield.

April 5, 2023 at 10:02 PM
The Hammer of God said...

Carl, you were right! Unfortunately for us, we'll be lucky if they bring up Jasson by the end of August. Because that's how they operate. Slowly, very slowly, incrementally, inch by inch.

April 6, 2023 at 9:26 AM
Hazel Motes said...

Erma, he will face that guy in the first whether he's batting second or third. Hard to think of a discussion more bereft of elementary logic and empirical foundation than this one. Ever notice that EVERYONE throws 95-plus now? Probably not, if you spend most of your time pining for the good old days of errancy before computers made new kinds of information available.

April 7, 2023 at 2:37 AM
Rufus T. Firefly said...

I'll buy explosive bowel disorder's ticket for the meetup. As long as it doesn't go to the pregame.

April 7, 2023 at 3:30 AM
The Hammer of God said...

Who is Erma? Am I reading that wrong or is that some kind of acronym?

Hoss is right about the late innings relievers. Even though starters throw hard too these days, the one inning reliever usually throws even harder. After all, he's only got that one inning to work. Also consider that the manager is going to bring out his best relievers if they have the lead and if it's a close game. Hitters typically will have had a full day to think about, watch video, and prepare for the next day's starting pitcher. They aren't as well prepared for the reliever that comes out of the bullpen. In the old days, when teams only carried five or six relievers, you could zero in on their top two or three relievers and be better prepared. But these days, teams carry so many relievers, it's hard to keep track of them all. I doubt hitters can prepare against relievers as well as they used to do.

This is one of the reasons why the trick of yanking your starting pitcher for an "opener" works so well. Do it unannounced, it works great. Make an excuse that the starter has a stomach ache/diarrhea and will be indisposed for an inning or two. Hitters are prepared for the starting pitcher, and at the last minute, you get somebody else who you didn't prepare for.

April 7, 2023 at 11:33 AM

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