How to Make a Counterintuitive Trade(s)

 From the red hot - but technically challenged - computer of HoraceClarke66.

 

I refer to the events of December 11, 1975, a date that will live in famy, now 45 years ago to the day. 

 

Well, okay, it was 45 years and 3 days ago. I meant to commemorate this on the day, but I was too busy making latkes for Chanukkah, the Festival of Light. Actually, I was too busy eating latkes my wife made, along with assorted other delicacies. Like all Jewish holidays, Hanukah is really the Festival of Food, save for those Jewish holidays that are about not eating food.

 

But I digress.

 

On December 11, 1975, 45 years ago…well, anyway, Gabe Paul, the first of the various wizards the Steinbrenners hired to make them winners, and promptly fired once they did—

 

(For cryin’ out loud, this family is like something from a German fairy tale: ‘Hey, let’s hire the guy with the mystical power to get rid of all the rats in town—and then not pay him. What the hell could possibly go wrong?’)

 

—pulled off a couple of trades that looked like real stinkeroos.

 

First, Paul traded Bobby Bonds to the California Angels, for Ed Figueroa and Mickey Rivers. Then, he dealt George “Doc” Medich to the Pittsburgh Pirates, for Dock Ellis—it was long called ‘The Great Homonym Trade of ’75’—Willie Randolph, and Ken Brett.

 

I have to say, when I heard about it, the bottom dropped out of my nearly nonexistent, 17-year-old stomach. And I was far from alone. Real baseball men sniffed at the deal, and turned their heads in disdain.

 

      

 

 Bobby Bonds, playing on one leg, had just run up a 30-30 season for the Yankees—then a rarity (He was only the third man to do a 30-30, I think. Ever.). Doc Medich had had a somewhat disappointing 1975, but he was still the workhorse of the staff, a 26-year-old who had won 49 games over the last three years.

 

And what did we get in return?

 

Figueroa looked promising, but all he’d had was a fine rookie year in a pitchers’ park, the Big A. Rivers seemed like a joke, a centerfielder without an arm, a leadoff man who couldn’t buy a walk; a character who couldn’t do much but run.

 

Ellis was a head case, who had bragged about throwing a no-hitter while on acid. Brooklyn’s own Willie Randolph seemed like a slick glove, but he had batted all of .164 in his 30 big-league games and hadn’t come close to beating out Rennie Stennett, who figured to be Pittsburgh’s second sacker for the next 15 years or so.

Can you say, “Kyle Holder”?

Anyway, shows how much we know. Gabe Paul had taken a couple of outstanding players and neatly leveraged them into a team.

 

Every one of the five players he acquired contributed mightily to the 5 division championships, 4 pennants, and 2 rings our boys won over the next 6 seasons—save for Ken Brett, who for some mysterious reason wound up in Billy Martin’s ever-mysterious and constantly expanding doghouse. And even so, Gabe Paul quickly and efficiently packaged Brett to the Chicago White Sox for Carlos May, who proved to be another valuable lugnut in the 1976 pennant drive.

 

The brilliance of what Gabe Paul did was to work with the reality facing him—Billy Martin was George’s golden boy—and act accordingly.

The likes of Rivers and Randolph fit in perfectly with the sort of ball Billy preferred to play. Figueroa and Ellis—repackaged for Mike Torrez, after one, excellent season in the Bronx—more than made up for the loss of Doc (no k) Medich, who proved to be mostly pitched out. Bonds had some good years in him still, but his production proved easy to replace.

 

In other words, this is how you think outside the box. This is what is needed for a talented Yankees team that seems permanently stalled just short of a World Series—much as it did after 1975.

 

Will Brain will demonstrate this same level of creativity? What do you think?

Halligator Arms Hal Steinbrenner wants the Yankee budget below $210 million. Good luck with that.

This weekend, in one of those private audiences with YES, Brain Cashman  addressed the question Yankee fans have pondered for months: 

After Gerrit Cole, who the fuck starts for us?

His answer: Dunno.

“Would I like to add to [the rotation]? The answer is yes, if we can. I think it’s best served to do so, but at worst, you could certainly daydream just to believe that you might actually have everything that you need there.”

So, lemme get this straight: The wealthiest team in American sports is California dreamin' on such a winter's day. Our rotation is Cole & slaw. James Paxton is gone. J.A Happ is gone. Masahiro Tanaka is probably gone. And our number two is the comedy team of Jordan Montgomery and Deivi Garcia.

“We’re really high on Montgomery, and I think he’ll continue to take his next steps,’’ Cashman said. “I think Deivi Garcia at the end, what he did last year, was something that gives us great optimism.”

For the record, what Garcia did at the end last year, was to disappear after one inning against Tampa, so Happ could come in and embarrass the organization.

So it goes. With each shortening day, D.J. LeMahieu seems to drift further from the Yankee shoreline. They want to sign him. They just don't want to pay the bill. More and more, it feels like a losing situation. 

If LeMahieu walks, we lose our best player - perhaps to the Mets, Redsocks or Blue Jays. If we keep him, it will tie up our finances and force the trades of either Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar. Our bullpen looks old and creaky. The rotation is a mess. The roster is straightjacketed from bloated contracts. And we're told Hal "Food Stamps" Steinbrenner wants the 2021 payroll below $210 million. 

Here are the deals already on the books, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Cole: $36 million
Giancarlo Stanton: $29 million
Aroldis Chapman: $16 million
Zack Britton: $13 million
Aaron Hicks: $10.8 million
Luis Severino: $10.8 million
Adam Ottavino: $8.9 million

Out of the blocks, that's $124.5 million. Incredibly, after Cole, you can imagine a total wipeout. And what if Cole sprains an ankle covering first? (Wait... I forgot: We're supposed to only imagine good things, right?) 

After the big deals, there are substantial raises coming via arbitration: Aaron Judge made $8.5 million last year; he'll get a bump. Gary Sanchez made $5 million; believe it or not, he'll get a bump. Gio Urshela earned $2.5 million; he'll get a big bump. And then come raises to those who were stuck near the MLB minimum: Voit, Gleyber, Frazier, Andujar, Luis Cessa, Mike Tauchman, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chad Green, several others. 

We're closing in on $180 million with LeMahieu still adrift, with a second-baseman playing shortstop, without a big lefty bat, with a withering pen, and with our No. 2 starter being - gulp - Montgomery or Garcia. 

Listen: If Hal truly intends to hold the line, it's LeMahieu or pitching? Dark times, people. And the days are still getting shorter.

Let's start a rumor: Ten reasons why the Yankees are covertly trying to trade Giancarlo Millstone

Been quiet lately. Too quiet... 

Something's up. Can you feel it? When asked about DJ LeMahieu, the Yankees slouch and stare at their shoes. They use qualifier words like "hopefully..." and "maybe..." We should hire those guys who broke the Zodiac killer's cypher code. They'd interpret the Yankee response as, "He's gone, muthafukkas..." 

But strangely, nobody mentions the alligator in the pool: Giancarlo Stanton. If and when the Yanks lose LeMahieu, they will - (in whispers, of course) - blame Giancarlo. For the next eight years, every Yankee move will be affected - if not dictated - by Stanton's contract: $198 million through 2028 (including buyout.) It is the lizard crushing Tokyo, the mother ship attacking DC. It is Cloverfield, and it's so ubiquitous that, like Voldemort, the Yankees try to never even mention it. 

But here's a thought: If we know anything about Brain Cashman, it's that he almost never flags a deal in advance. Two years ago, LeMahieu arrived out of nowhere. Three years ago, nobody foresaw the Stanton trade. So, the absence of rumors? It means nothing. 

Here are 10 reasons why, in the coming weeks, the Yankees could shock the world and trade Giancarlo. You read it here first.

1. For a trade, it's now or never. At 31, he probably has a couple good seasons left. Next year... um...

2. In the recent post-season, he frickin' killed: Six HRs in seven games, with 13 RBIs. There can be no doubt: When healthy, he can still bring it. 

3. He still might accept a trade to the West Coast. The more entrenched he becomes in NYC, the less likely he'll be to okay a deal. Three years from now... um...

4. The NL seems to be moving toward the DH. (Right now, it's up in the air for 2021.) For now, Stanton might be able to play LF. The Yankees could even argue that, the more he's out there, running around, the less likely he is to tweak things. 

5. The Angels look particularly desperate. They are on the verge of squandering the careers of Mike Trout and the Japanese Babe Ruth. Also, the Dodgers rule LA. If the Yankees were to, say, pay Stanton's fare for two seasons - $58 million - the Angels could make a run. Same with the Mariners, Padres and even - gulp - Dodgers, who might seek a dynasty. 

6. Stanton is coming off a season that's impossible to assess. In 94 at-bats, he hit 4 HR and batted .250. Meh. But once again: When healthy, he hits. There is no sign of a Bobby Bonilla/Mo Vaughn/George Scott instant self-immolation.

7. Last year he actually looked svelte and in great shape. He'd lost a few pounds, seemed to be feeling good. A hamstring took him down - no broken bone or surgery. Say what you will: Hammies are a part of life.

8. For the Yankees, trading Stanton - for anything - makes sense. They can keep Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar, either of whom could mitigate whatever Stanton does for another team. If Stanton stays, however, the Yankees have to trade one, or both... 

9. The Yankees don't need much, talent-wise, in return. A couple low-level prospects, who don't need to be protected in next year's Rule 5.

10. With the money they eventually save, they can re-sign LeMahiue, or Kyle Schwarber, or Sir Didi, or - imagine this: a pitcher! They can actually build a team from the ground up. 

The key is timing. If Stanton suffers another injury-plagued season, well, say goodbye to trade opportunities. He's coming off a surge - rather than surgery. 

Now is the time. 

So, fire the rumor cannons. You heard it here first.

Phil Linz, RIP

The Yankee Harmonicat

 

The sad case of Kyle Holder, the Yankee shortstop who always came up short

Depending on which voices rule my head, yesterday's Rule 5 draft was either a full-blown Yankee disaster...  or a tall, steaming mound of nothingness.  

In case you missed it, the Cashman Consortium lost three prospects - RH pitchers Garret Whitlock and Trevor Stephan, and SS Kyle Holder, a former sandwich-round pick.  (Whitlock, it should be noted, was snagged by Boston... grrr...)

But but BUT... under the mysterious Rule 5 - a casserole of legalese that rivals the liability disclaimers on your phone - each selected player must stay on his new team's 25-man roster all season, or he comes home, wagging his tail behind him. Most Rule Fivers don't stick. Remember Ivan Nova? He came back. Remember Nestor (Ocasio) Cortez? He came back. We don't say "Goodbye," merely "Steal some silverware on the way back." (Also, it's a mark of honor for the Yankee system, in that other teams are raiding us.) 

But today, I mourn the loss of Holder - this winter's second Holder (after Jonathan, now a free agent) to be unheld.

We picked Holder in the the 2015 draft, when he was reputed to be then nation's premier defensive SS. 

"Holder is about as elite a defender as we've seen come through the college ranks," Yankee scouting director, Damon Oppenheimer said. "He's got a tremendous glove...

"The ball just sticks in his glove. There's not a lot of guys that you say, 'I want to get there early just to watch this guy take ground balls.' But that's what I did with him."

Oppenheimer compared Holder's defense to 11-time Gold Glove winner Omar Vizquel. 

"This guy can do some of the things that Omar did between his legs and things. I don't know. It was really, really fun to watch."

One aspect of bullshit: When it is particularly savory, folks have a way of remembering the taste. For five years, Yank fans have waited for our Omar. Now, he's gone.

Elephant-in-the-room time: Holder's bat was always a dice roll. Over five years, he hit .264 with 17 HR and 26 SB. Not much... unless his glove was the Second Coming of Omar. 

In his last full season, 2019, at Trenton, Holder hit .265 with 9 HRs. Not bad, really. Especially if he is the Second Coming of Omar. 

(I should note that last year, the Yankees left Holder unprotected in the Rule 5, and nobody picked him. So he spends a year slogging around Scranton, and now he gets taken? Go figure.) 

I've monitored Holder for five years. He suffers from Aaron Hicks Disease: Whenever his bat heated up, he'd get hurt. (He missed most of 2018.)

But if this guy is truly an elite defensive SS, why did the Yankees sit on him? At various moments, we've tried Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes, Adeiny Hechavarria, Troy Tulowitzki, Thairo Estrada and - last season - the inexplicable Jordy "the wrong Murcer" Mercer. Why not the Second Coming of Omar? 

I get it that savvied scouts - baseball men! Marlboro men!- along with nerdy, nose-picking wonks have studied Holder and said no. Just so it's said: I do not think I know more than the experts.

But last year, the Yankees tried Gleyber Torres at SS, and - well - I'm not sure it worked. Yesterday, Brian Cashman suggested that Gleyber didn't show up in good enough shape - (he blamed the pandemic) - which is a hell of thing for a GM to say about a player. Cashman also suggested the Yanks might not re-sign DJ LeMahieu. If so, Gleyber probably returns to 2B, leaving a big, gaping hole at SS. 

A perfect opening for the Second Coming of Omar, am I right? 

Well, the Yanks often seem to be glove-blind. The greatest example: Gary Sanchez. For five years, they've ignored his defense in favor of his exit velocity. And now they are said to be considering Kyle Schwarber? Yikes! 

So, Kyle Holder, now 26, is a Philadelphia Phillie. Who cares what he hits? What if he turns out to be a Gold Glove? Think the Yanks will call Jordy Mercer?

Tweet of the Day

 

The Zen of Scott Boras: "When you're the thermometer, you're not the turkey."

As MLB's winter meetings continue, trouserless on Zoom, the LA Times profiles super-agent Scott Boras, 68, son of a dairy farmer, who supposedly used to birth the scariest words an owner could hear, seemingly yanked from an ambulance chaser TV commercial: "He's being repped by Scott Boras!"

In a time when agents become GMs and rappers become agents, who knows where truth and fiction intersect? In their elaborate mating dances, greedy owners plead poverty while greedy agents shout about social justice, and at the quantum level, their kids attend the same private academy. It's money, the closest thing to magic that humanity ever made. 

A friend of mine used to sum up all human interaction this way: "Tens screw tens, nines screw nines, eights screw eights, and so on. The missing factor - which allows, say, a three to screw a ten, is money." 

That's where Boras comes in. 

In the profile, Boras offers a bizarre analogy that laps my cognitive capabilities. (I'm still recovering from the Joe Namath Medicare Hot-Line commercials, where he shouts, "Call now! IT'S FREE!" as if long-distance rates from 1975 remain in effect.)  Boras says: 

“When you’re the thermometer, you’re not the turkey. We put the thermometer in, and the turkey tells us when it is done. That’s kind of how the winter meetings work. Sometimes the turkey is done rather quickly, because the heat is high early. If the temperature is low, then obviously the turkey takes longer to cook.”

If anybody can interpret this, go for it. I never went to law school, but I did once stay at a Holiday Inn Express, so here's my take: 

Out there in California, Boras smokes some damn primo ganja, and one part of his soul is still riding the Further bus with Kesey and Cassidy. (Didn't Kesey say he'd rather be a lightning bolt than a seismic needle?)  Far out, man. 

Elsewhere in the article, Boras maintains that - contrary to the sing-song consensus of loyal Gammonites - MLB owners did NOT lose money last year. 

Although commissioner Rob Manfred has said the 30 MLB teams lost $3 billion this season, and although Dodgers president Stan Kasten has said his team lost “well north of $100 million,” Boras said teams collected postseason national television and in-season local television revenue while paying 37% of salaries in the pandemic-shortened schedule.

Says Boras: "There's no team in baseball that lost money last year."

These days, as we've painfully learned, anybody can say anything. All you need is a cable network, and Hal Steinbrenner has one. In fact, Hal's greatest superpower is not his money; it's his ability to poor-mouth. He's better than those ads with the shivering puppies. The conventional wisdom says the pandemic cost the Yankees more money than any other franchise. Thus, we should show a little gratitude; be thankful for whatever shekels that Generous Hal tosses our way.

Well, here's what I think I know: 

The Yanks will make a Joggy Cano-style run at keeping DJ LeMahieu. But they won't outbid the rest of baseball. They'll hike to a certain precipice and then turn back. Supposedly, LeMahiue wants to stay a Yankee. The question: How much would he leave on the table to make that happen? 

If LeMahieu walks, the Yankees will go to Plan B. (I'm sure they have one.) My guess: They'd re-sign Masahiro Tanaka, and find a defensive SS and a lefty bat. (Or one, in the form of Didi.) So... the remaining questions: Who will be the turkey? And where does the thermometer go?

Holiday Gift Clearence Sale!

 

It’s been a tough year for the New York Yankees in general but no part of the organization was harder hit then their merchandise department.  The lack of fans in the seats due to Covid 19 has created a once in lifetime opportunity for fans to score Yankee Themed Holiday gifts at incredible savings.

Plus we've opened up the warehouse on Tremont Avenue to allow you to enjoy special savings on items honoring Yankees past.  

It's a Christmas Miracle! 

Game Used Gary Sanchez Bat. Mint Condition! $75

Re-live your frustration year round with this game used bat from the Gary Sanchez Golden Sombrero Collection (TM). The bat is pristine and is unmarked by contact with a ball. 

Only 12 in stock so buy today! 

Edwin Encarnación Parrot $3.99 ea

Nothing says merchandising like this adorable Edwin Encarnación Home Run Walk Parrot. We've got hundreds of them in our Tremont Avenue warehouse. Don't walk, run to give them a good home. Buy one or buy a dozen! Just get them the flock outta here! 

Jonathan Holder Coffee Cup Holder 10 for $4.99

Your hands will be saved from third degree burns with these one of a kind coffee cup holders.

A Gallon of Sweat! $59.95

As General Patton famously said,  "A pint of sweat, saves a gallon of blood."  So imagine how much blood you will save when you buy a whole gallon! We are prohibited from saying where we got the sweat from but I think we all know. 

Yankee Stadium Bunting  $99 

Festoon your home with unused Yankee Stadium Bunting. The Yankees have no use for bunting. Not even when there's a shift on and all they need is a baserunner to get something started. Even if there is ABSOLUTELY NO ONE on the left side of the infield and all the batter would have to do is just touch the ball to guarantee a base hit.  No! They'd rather go for a home run and end up hitting the ball to some guy playing a beer league position out in short right field. Over and over and over and over again! I mean what's up with that? It's just common sense. Bunt the damn ball. If you do it a few times in a row they won't shift on you anymore. Seriously, it's not that hard. Just hold the bat out there and give it a push. For the Love of G-d! How many times do I have to say this... BUNT!!!!!!!

Also great for 4th of July celebrations. 

The days are still getting shorter, but Yankee poormouthing is at summer solstice

Today's rumors from the Winter Meetings - the meatless, meetingless meetings of meaninglessness - suggest the Death Barge is ready to punt on Masahiro Tanaka, a free agent who is one contract shy of lifetime Yankeehood. 

This is horrible. 

Last month, Tanaka turned 32, still young for a warhorse. His fastball may have softened, but there are ample reasons to believe he can develop a resurrection pitch - a tweaked splitfinger or drop-dead changeup - and throw into his late thirties. He remains a great competitor, capable of rising to any occasion. As the Yankees weigh plans to maintain Brett Gardner's 10-year legacy - (a worthy thought) - it is, frankly, incredible that they would let Tanaka, after seven years, walk.

Last year, an enigma season, Tanaka started 10 games, going 3-3 with an ERA of 3.56. Not bad. Not great. But considering the lack of starters after Gerrit Cole, there is only one reason why the Yankees would play footsie with a pitcher of Tanaka's spirit, skill and stature.

Our owner is pleading poverty.

Our billionaire owner.  

Okay, I get it: I don't have access to the Yankee spreadsheets, and it's easy to gripe about Steinbrennerian finances: It's not my money. Also, I get it that the Yankees are apparently all-in on re-signing DJ LeMahieu - (so say the rumors) - at a price tag north of $100 million. Fine. But if signing LeMahieu means ignoring the lack of pitchers, maybe the front office should just consider tanking in 2021? We can hit 300 HRs. It won't matter. How many 12-11 games can we win?  

It's reasonable to think the most profitable money machine in sports - when deprived of a season - loses the most dough. Yes, the Yankees have suffered from the pandemic. But every team - and every billionaire owner - has faced the same lockdown. The Yankees can scream about lost revenue. They are part of the chorus. (And nobody screams louder than billionaires, eh?)

In recent days, two Yankee pitching "targets" - Lance Lynn and Charlie Morton - were signed by hungry teams who intend to win in 2021. Lynn is 33. Morton, 37. 

Having basically rested a year - he threw only 48 innings, barely a month's workload - Tanaka has an excellent chance for a strong 2021. He has only known one MLB team. Remember how we thought he'd need Tommy John surgery due to a partial tear in his elbow? He pitched through it. Never skipped a beat. He's a gamer. He has never tarnished his Yankee legacy.

And if the Yankees let him walk, because Food Stamps Hal feels light in the wallet, mark these words: We will be sitting here next December, wondering what the fuck we were thinking? 

Should LeMahieu learn to pitch?  

The Yankees passed on Lance Lynn, and let's be thankful

Today, Joel Sherman reports what our tormented souls at IIH have been bellicosely screaming for weeks, months, lifetimes: That the Yankees - our favorite, fully-functioning Death Barge - need pitching, pitching, pitching...

He suggests the team should have chased the veteran lug nut, Lance Lynn, who at 33 had strung together two solid years in Texas. Yesterday, the White Sox traded for Lynn. 

Sherman is right, sorta. The Yankees had Lynn two years ago. If they had kept him, who knows: We might have more than a pair of 2nd place door prizes. Writes Sherman: 

Lynn is no (Gerrit) Cole. But he is as close to sure innings for a job as treacherous as throwing a baseball hard. He has one year left on a three-year contract and counts just $10 million toward the luxury-tax payroll. Expect that Masahiro Tanaka would cost more in 2021 on a multi-year pact. Yet, the Yankees made no strong efforts toward a reunion. Instead, a team already with more certainty atop the rotation in the White Sox added Lynn. 

I get it that Chicago just snagged a guy the Yankees could use. But they gave up their 9th best prospect - ranked 80th by MLB; (the Sox have been building their farm system for several years) - a pitcher named Dane Dunning, plus an arm to be named later. 

To outbid Chicago, the Yankees would have needed to trade Clarke Schmidt and/or Deivi Garcia. That's where talks would start.

Had we made such a deal, my wails today would echo across Gotham, and I don't even live there. 

Listen: I donno know what the Yankees will do for pitching. But they had their shot at Lynn, as they did with Sonny Gray, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, the cast of Big Sky, and a lineage that extends back to Rick Rhoden. None brought us a ring. And unless somebody invents a time machine, we are stuck with what we have. 

Somewhere out there is the next Lance Lynn, a thirtysomething with a fan belt for an arm, who one day tweaks a certain pitch and shouts, "Eureka!" He receives from the juju gods a two-year rebirth before the glue factory calls. 

The Yankees need pitching, pitching, pitching. But trading for a guy on the cusp of 34 won't cut it. We've tried. It didn't work. I'd rather take my chances on Schmidt and Garcia. 

It's almost impossible to assess the 2020 season. It happened overnight. Is Gary Sanchez really that horrible? Is Randy Arozarena really that incredible? (In both cases, if the answer is yes, we're screwed.) But here's one conclusion that seems to fit: 

Youth wins, and old age wilts.

The Yankees need pitching, pitching, pitching... To get it, they need to constantly scour the landscape and to fortify their farms. They need to build an organization that is better than the others. No nepotism. No cronies. No fat. They need a system built from the bottom up. It's the strength of that system that matters. 

And, frankly, that's why Yankee fans worry.

My Plan To Fix The Yankees Part Three: Starting Pitching

As exhilarating as it was to watch the New York Football Giants this weekend, and it was, we still have a baseball team to take care of and, since I'm not going to write My Plan To Fix The Yankees Part Four: Catching because a two word post seems like poor use of the privilege... 

(OK,  Bonus Material:  My Plan To Fix The Yankees Part Four: Catching -- Trade Sanchez.)

Where was I...

Oh yeah, Starting Pitching.   I see it a little differently. I think we are ok.  The solution is pretty simple. We just sign two of the following free agent pitchers…

Ivan Nova
J.A. Happ
James Paxton
José Quintana

And call it a day. 

Oh wait, been there done that. Hmmmmmn. Let me try this again...

It's still doable. Here’s the thing, pitching rotations in general, and the current Yankee rotation in particular, don’t really require radical overhauls. All you really need to do is add one really good to great pitcher and everything snaps into place.

And the truth is we only need one guy and I’ll tell you who it is in a minute. (It ain’t Bauer)

A strong rotation consists of

Great Pitcher
Great Pitcher
Really Good Pitcher
Really Good Pitcher
Good Pitcher

As Senior Duque listed, right now we have

Great Pitcher (Cole)

And then:

Jordan Montgomery (5.11)
Deivi Garcia (4.98)
Clarke Schmidt (7.71)
Michael King (7.76)
Jonathan Loaisiga (ERA 3.52)
Domingo German (suspended)
Luis Severino (surgery, back in May-June)

We can lose Lasagna and King right away. Bullpen fodder. Still, too many question marks.  However,  lets fill in the model.

Great Pitcher (Cole)
Great Pitcher (X)
Really Good Pitcher (Schmidt - supposedly a number 2 asked to be a 3 or 4)
Really Good Pitcher (Devi – supposedly a number 2 asked to be a 3 or 4)
Good Pitcher  (Montgomery)

German comes back (or is traded – see below) Tanaka gets resigned (just a hunch). That’s two more really good pitchers to fill that 3 or 4 slot. 

Add Sevi who just needs to be good while recovering (in the Montgomery slot) and they are in fine  shape IF they can score an ace.  I know you are all thinking, “Duh!” but here’s the thing. It is doable.

Who you ask? 

Let's talk Carlos Carrasco. Because this is the guy we want! Young. Great. Signed thru 2023

Why would Cleveland trade him?  They’ve got other pitchers in the pipeline. He’s starting to hit his arb years and they have needs.

What will it take? 

AnDUjar. (Ouch but if he has to go this is the kind of guy you want in return)
Hicks (They really need a CF we have a cost controlled one 10M is bupkis)
German (Because he has upside and probably needs a new clubhouse and a clean slate)

And/or Albert Abreu. (Who by the way, gave up Gary Sanchez's only hit this weekend in a Winter League game so you know he can't possibly be any good.)

That seems fair. They give us an ace they get a potential star in AnDUjar, a solid CFer, and two pitchers with upside to be as good as Carrasco is now.

CONCLUSION

 Would we be happy with…?

1) Cole 
2) Carrasco
3-4)  Schmidt/ Devi/ Tanaka
5) Montgomery/recuperating Sevi

I would.  We need to find a new CF but don’t we anyway?

There's a new Judge in town, and he's about to capture the passion of NYC sports fans

This week, the Winter Meetings happen. Question for the Peanut Gallery: 

Like, um, does anybody care? 

Traditionally, the second week in December gives the Yankees six free days of advertising, a burst of attention on Gotham's manic, tabloid back pages, because...

1. By now, the Giants are out of it.

2. By now, the Jets are out of it.

3. The Knicks haven't begun yet, but they're already out of it.

4. The broadsheets love rumors.

Say what you will about Yankee pitching, the Death Barge runs the best rumor mill in sports. They're after Kyle Schwarber! They're trading Red Thunder! They're signing D.J.! They're bringing back  Colter Bean! Yeesh. Rumors are like genital crabs: Tweezer one off, and you find eight more. Whatever you want, there's a rumor for it. And that's how the Yankees rule December.

I direct your attention to the Tabloid Back Page Charts on the left. They show the Yankees projected to win 2020, as they have every year since we launched the count. But their margin is shrinking. 

Three years ago, the Yanks scored 280 Post and Daily News cover pages - nearly equaling the Mets, Knicks and Giants combined.  

In 2018, their total dropped to 242, almost 90 ahead of the Mets.

Last year, they fell to 212, about 20 above the Mets. 

This year - wrecked by Covid - the Yankees will win with a relatively meager 155 covers, about 20 ahead of the Mets. This happened due to the short season and the Mets' utter collapse, conceding the month of October. 

Well, we can see what's coming.

Unless the Yankees win the 2021 World Series, they will lose NYC. 

Which brings me back to December, which the Yankees are also about to lose. For months now, we've dismissed the Giants as a toxic cohort to the worst franchises in professional sports: the Jets and the Knicks. Suddenly, under Coach Joe Judge, they are poised for a run at the playoffs. Suddenly, our screams about GM Dave Gettleman and DT Leonard Williams sound rather defeatist. 

In this dark month - the darkest in our lifetimes? - the Giants are about to become New York City's most hopeful beam of light.

So, this week, enjoy the rumors for what they are: Gammonite bullshit. Only one question sums up these meetings: How much will Hal Steinbrenner and Steve Cohen spend? (Long ago, Warren Zevon figured it out: Send lawyers, guns and money. )But no matter what happens, the Yankees won't win NYC. There's a new Judge in town. There's also a new Joe. 

How the Yankees Are Like the Empire of Japan.

Written by HoraceClarke66 

Sometime in the late 1920s, the government of Imperial Japan—or at least the Army faction that dominated it—decided that in order for the Japanese people to survive, they had absolutely no choice but to take over Manchuria. “Living space,” you see, or lebensraum, as their future partners in fascism would call it.

 

The only trouble with this plan was the Manchurians, of course. And the Chinese government, which thought it ruled Manchuria. The Empire therefore had no choice but to invade China, the most populous nation in the world.

 

This proved more difficult than the general staff had anticipated—but after all, they had no choice.

 

In order to keep the war machine running, the generals decided that Japan had no choice but to go down and take Indonesia—then held by the Dutch—and then Malaysia, which was held by the British.

 

That meant that eventually the Japanese had to get into a war with the British Empire, too, which meant attacking India, the second most populous country in the world. Plus Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Burma, Shanghai. And then Vietnam and Cambodia and Laos, which were held by Britain’s friends, the French.

 

There was just no choice.

 

Along with some nasty border wars with the Soviets, when Japan considered grabbing Siberia, too—lots of natural resources!—and then when we had the effrontery to object to that and embargo war materiel to Japan, they had absolutely no choice but to attack the Philippines, and Hawaii, and Guam, and Wake Island, and even Alaska and California and pretty soon we were at the Jerry Lewis, Hey Lady! stage of imperialism.

 

Japan found itself fighting over half the globe, against nearly all of the greatest powers on earth. Because they just had to. Endless slaughter ensued, capped by two atomic bombs.

 

And then, after all that, whattaya know? Freed of their imperial overlords, the Japanese proved that they were an incredibly ingenious, hardworking, innovative people perfectly capable of living very well on their small, rocky archipelago.

 

But Hoss, I hear you wail, what does all this possibly have to do with the Yankees? Isn’t it just another of your endless digressions?

 

Patience, my little ones. The analogy is this:

 

Of late, we have heard the Yankees brains trust—such as it is—convincing itself and its legion of sycophants online, and in the mainstream media—that it has no choice but to trade or, even worse, let go for nothing at all, several of the best players on the team.

 

D.J. LeMahieu, Luke Voit, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar:  some or all of these players must be discarded, or the Yankees Empire will fall. There is just no choice.

 

Last year’s batting champion, last year’s home run champion, their most promising young outfielder, or the kid who was last seen breaking Joe DiMaggio’s records, before a freak injury put him out of action. No choice. One or more of them have to go, no matter what they may or may not bring back.

 

Certainly, they won’t get rid of the Shortstop of the Future…who can’t play shortstop. Not the Catcher of the Future…who can’t catch or hit. Not the guy who takes up half the payroll and seems to spend most of his time readying himself for the Mr. Universe Pageant.

 

Nope. Only the best players on the team. And in their place we’re told that we might just get a guy who strikes out one out of every three times up and can’t play the field—but who has major exit velo. And/or a good all-around outfielder…who is already 33, and has already missed a year-and-a-half with injuries.

 

Yeah, they should fit right in.

 

But keep on doing what you’re doing. Never, ever ask yourself if the thing you have to do is really just what you want to do, much like the Japanese militarists wanting to go around making war everywhere. Or—could it be—HAL just wanting to cut costs, and Brain wanting to show us what a trading-fool genius he is.

 

I mean, we have to do it.

Heading into the Winter Zoom Meetings, the Yankees are gaslighting their fans about pitching

Now and then, The Thinking Fan must step away from the stable and size up the livestock, compared to the competition. And for now, the 2021 AL East looks like a disaster. 

Tampa remains the apex predator, Toronto is rising fast, the Redsocks are far superior to last year's orchestrated tank, and Baltimore - well - thank you, Lord, for a touchstone. 

The Yankee roster overflows in the OF, treads water behind the plate and - even without DJ LeMahieu - would look stocked at three of four IF slots. That's not nothing.   

Ah, but then there is the staff, which today is Gerrit Cole and a conga line of Scrantonians. As the Yankees surf fantastical, sportswriter-enhanced rumors about Kyle Schwarber and Francisco Lindor, let us acknowledge The Abyss. 

This is the Yankee rotation:

Cole (ERA last year, 2.84)
Jordan Montgomery (5.11)
Deivi Garcia (4.98)
Clarke Schmidt (7.71)
Michael King (7.76)
Jonathan Loaisiga (ERA 3.52)
Domingo German (suspended)
Luis Severino (surgery, back in May-June)  

Disregard Cole, and the remaining seven last year notched 133 innings, together. There are no baseline projections for Garcia, Schmidt, King and Loaisiga; they remain complete mysteries. German and Severino will be returning from wipeout seasons. There is not one solid starter. And if we re-sign Masahiro Tanaka - 32 next year - do we know what we're getting?

Then there is the bullpen, which around this time last December was being hailed as a collection of Olympians. Here it is:

Aroldis Chapman (ERA 3.09)
Zack Brittan (1.89)
Chad Green (3.51)
Luis Cessa (3.32)
Adam Ottavino (5.89)
Nick Nelson (4.79)
Ben Heller (3.00)

Certainly, in terms of analyzing players, the 2021 short sample is foolishness. But Yankee fans should worry about the age of these conquistadores. Of our Big Five, only Cessa - (isn't it time to call the cards on him?) is under 30. Ottavino next year will be 35. Ouch. Chapman and Britton will be 33. 

Ah... El Chapo... a walking PTSD exhibit. Will we ever believe in him again? Here's a question to ponder: 

How many regular season saves did he notch last year? 

The answer: Three. 

I'm not making this up. Three. (He blew two save attempts.)

Thus far, this winter, the Yankees have gaslighted their fan base with talk of incomprehensible acquisitions - the very expensive Lindor and the oafish Schwarber. It's fun to imagine batting orders, because you only think of how much damage they will inflict. But without an influx of pitching, this team finishes fourth in the AL East - thank you, Lord, for Baltimore. 

"We all see it. We all see it." Deivi Garcia has blue hair.

In my favorite recent ad, Progressive's "Dr. Rick" shows boomers how not to embarrass themselves in the modern world. In this episode, he takes two clients into a big box store.

On that note, I feel compelled to note Deivi Garcia's new look in the winter leagues.

Okay, yep, cue the hook, I've just outed myself as a codger. But - as the kids today say... FWIW, I think this is great, because...

1. Every hopeful Yankee 2021 projection begins and ends with Deivi Garcia being the real deal. 

2. I like rookies with a bit of fire, a spark of attitude. I believe most Yankee fans agree. That's why Clint Frazier is so popular, and why listless Gary Sanchez is so disliked. 

This might explain why Frazier has never received a full chance, while Gloomy Gary  returns each year like - well - a recurring character in a TV commercial. 

Maybe Hal Steinbrenner needs a few sessions with Dr. Rick. In the meantime, you grow, Deivi!

In body language, the Yankees seem to be blinking on LeMahieu

Lately, the Yankiverse has echoed with two wildly divergent rumors:

1. DJ LeMahieu wants to stay a Yankee, so both sides will soon kiss and sign on the dotted line. 

2. The Yanks will not win a bidding war for LeMahieu, so kiss him goodbye. 

I'm starting to believe No. 2. Why? Because in the last two days, a weirdly coordinated breeze full of whispers has connected the Death Barge to free agent outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Michael Brantley. 

Considering the glaring holes in their rotation, their bullpen and at SS, why would the suddenly frugal Yankees ponder either player, unless they seek to tamp down the rage across their fan base, if and when LeMahieu departs? 

And considering how much of their 2021 strategy hinges on LeMahieu's fate, if they really plan to keep him, why haven't they already made him an impossible offer to refuse?  

Yeah, I keep seeing No. 2.

Each day, another team - now it's the Dodgers - edges into the impending war of wallets over LeMahieu, who has every right to demand a tsunami of money for his two MVP-level seasons in NYC. At age 32, this is the last big payout in his life. LeMahieu might give the Yanks a discount. He won't give away the ranch in Wyoming.

And here's another rub: The Yankees do need a lefty-hitter. As it now stands, especially with Gary Sanchez apparently returning, the batting order tilts rightward like the tower of Pisa. If LeMahieu stays, it forces the trade(s) of Clint Frazier, Luke Voit and/or Miguel Andujar (probably a goner, anyway.)

If LeMahieu leaves - and we must steel ourselves for that - why not replace him with an equally beloved Yankee? Of course, I'm referring to Didi Gregorius, who will be 31 this year. Last season, Sir Didi hit .284 with 10 HRs for the Phillies. Bat him between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and his numbers will improve. More importantly, he'd shore up the defense, move Gleyber to 2B and spare us from a potentially devastating bad trade.  

LeMahieu's fate hangs over the Yankee winter. In comparison, Wednesday's decision to keep Sanchez was a trifle. (Note: Gary could still go. Last season, with empty stadiums, he was spared the booing. This year, marching back to the dugout after a whiff, he'll hear it like few Yankees we've ever known. I wonder about that...)

Once upon a time, in a Yankiverse not so far away, the Yankees let Robinson Cano jog off into the sunset, a move that turned out to be rather cagy. Nevertheless, they managed to blow it.  To offset the negative publicity of losing Joggy, they poked Boston in the eye and signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven year deal. This season, they'll pay him a $5 million buyout. Those who do not remember history are doomed to - how does that old chestnut go? - sign Kei Igawa? 

In the next few weeks, the great fear among Yankee fans should be that - after we lose LeMahieu - the Yankees will land a big name, merely to keep up pretenses. That sounds like Schwarber, and it's legitimately scary. 

Glossary of Baseball Terms: Exit Velocity

Exit Velocity should be a stat for General Managers. As in, "How fast can you get rid of players whose only league leading stat is Exit Velocity?"

This is why you live in Upstate New York

 

If Hal Steinbrenner is really his father's son, he'll sign Kyle Schwarber

At times, I suspect that Hal "Food Stamps" Steinbrenner is playing out an elaborate, condensed, re-enactment of his father's timeline. If so, we are reliving Old George's evolutionary history, and we are currently mired in the Danny Tartabulleacean Period, aka the "Worst Team Money Can Buy" era. Back then, when we talked about "the Hall," we meant Mel Hall.

If this is true, we are four years away from the next championship.  

Every idiot fan in captivity knows that teams today win with youth, defense and pitching. Nevertheless, we could be entering a phase when Hal - channeling Daddy - chases sluggers the way kittens pounce on jiggly strings. 

Which brings me to the reason behind this bizarre and terrifying theory:

The apparent Yankee infatuation with Kyle Schwarber. 

Yesterday, the Cubs cut ties with Schwarber, who hit.188 in 59 games last season, while fanning in a third of his at-bats. Over his six-year career, Schwarber is a .230 hitter with great power... when he connects. (Cue the Gary Sanchez wah-wah sound.) In 2019, Schwarber hit 38 HRs, his peak. In March, he'll turn 28. Defensively, he has the range of the Utah Monolith. Nobody will ever call him "Operation Warp Speed."

But but BUT... he bats LH, and supposedly, Brian "Cooperstown" Cashman has a stiffy for him. You think Trump's Tweets are scary? Here's one from last night that's horrific...

So, could Schwarber actually be a thing? 

Last year, Schwarber earned $7 million, a small truckload, as looming Yankee fiascos go. Trouble is, we've seen this movie before, and it never ends well. 

To jam a beached whale like Schwarber into their lineup, the Yankees would need to tear apart the current roster. That might not be the worst thing ever. Their batting order now tilts farther right than Alabama. They'd trade Giancarlo Stanton for a bowl of nuts. If we are reliving 1991, adding Schwarber and his 200 strikeouts would seem the most George-like thing the franchise can do. 

Let's hope our interest in Schwarber is Russian disinformation. A few winters ago, remember Cashman's gushy lip service to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper? Maybe this is that. It never hurts to fawn over the shiny Buick, especially if you have no real plans to make an offer. 

Let's hope that's it. Schwarber would be a terrible fit on this team. And if Hal is truly reliving Daddy's spiritual journey, we won't see a ring for four or five years. I'm all for rebuilding, but that's too long. 

ESPN: Gary gets gravy gig

 

It's Gary Day in the Yankiverse, and the Death Barge appears to be doubling down on its most disappointing player

In today's Morning Murdoch, Joel Sherman - the Thomas Friedman of Gammonites - flips a coin, and it comes up "GARY." That's Gary Sanchez, the artist formerly known as "Kraken," whom Sherman suggests will remain a Yankee after 8 p.m., when the Steinbrennerian Cards of Fate are called. 

By 8 p.m., MLB franchises must either tender contracts to, trade, or cut ties with about three dozen veterans, who are overpaid and under-appreciated by everybody but their agents.

Man the outlook towers, people. Today, at any moment, the first meaningful tweet about 2021 could trend on the Information Superhighway: Our first insight into how the Yankee brain trust will emerge from the pandemic. 

Will Hal Steinbrenner appear in tatters, unshaven, with pockets pulled and tin can rattling? 

Or will he emerge on his stallion, brandishing his checkbook like Excalibur? 

It will cost the Yankees $5 million to keep the 28-year-old Sanchez. But if they release him - finally punting on his high "exit-velo," and what Sherman calls his "hangdog body language" - who becomes the No. 1 Yankee catcher? Kyle Higashioka is a start. But they'll have to sign someone.

For whatever it's worth, back when I wrote for the Syracuse Post-Standard, the sportswriters used to tell me Sherman was the best Yankee beat reporter. Hands down. Somehow, he has survived cutbacks at the Post. My guess is Brian Cashman - whose greatest talent was always in personal politics - views Sherman as part of the landscape, a force to reckon with. So, does Sherman know what's coming? Not necessarily. And in today's write-up, he makes no certain prediction:

Do the Yankees think that the criticism of Sanchez, namely his ability to block balls, is overstated and overrated? Yes. But they also recognize, fair or not, that Sanchez’s defensive miscues and ever growing non-competitive at-bats have become a soap opera around the team. And the chances that Sanchez will make the soap opera stop – unlock the consistency that Boone spoke about – is what, 25 percent? 30?

The Yanks appear willing to play those poor odds again. 

Hmm. Well, today, we might get our first glimpse of the 2021 plan. Do they give him one more chance?  Gravy Gary... or Goner Gary? Man the towers, people.

Time For Truth .....

Here is the hard truth:  The Yankees must realize, today, that they have to re-build this team.

Retooling and making tweaks are just lies, and we have had enough of that. 

Teams win championships with " strength up the middle."

Let's see how the Yankees measure up:

1.  Pitching - We do have an ace, but only one.

2.  Catching - Our star has shown he can't hit, throw, catch or run. 

3.  Shortstop - our young star ( Torres )  is really a second baseman.

4.  Shortstop Plan B - We have Tyler Wade...may be worth a "go."  He is excellent on defense; can run and throw and, maybe, can hit like Gardy did last season.  At best, however, that is far from a strength.  It is an accommodation. 

5.  Hicks is a " meh" at centerfield.  Good enough to start on a team going nowhere.  The Yankees need a star quality player out there.  Exceptional defense and exceptional bat. Someone people go to the ballpark to watch play. 

Overall, the Yankee's " strength up the middle " is lame as hell.

In addition, we do have a fine right fielder ( when healthy ) and a fine third baseman. We have a decent back-up catcher. We likely do not have what we need at first base, either, unless Le Mahieu stays. Voit can't run, is below the mean on defense, and does not hit for average. He is known for mammoth home runs. 

The rest of the pitching is "competitive" but that is all. No domination in the starting group or the bullpen. 

So this team has to look at itself and say, do we really want to win? If yes, they must confess to a re-build. If they continue to use the band-aid approach, and use the word re-tool, they don't really want to win. 

You don't win championships anymore, just by showing up and putting nine guys on the field. Even if many of them were really good, once. 

Holiday Songbook #1

With Thanksgiving in our rear view mirror it's time to open the Yankee Holiday Songbook. 

We begin the season with a warning to our tight fisted front office. 

And a one... and a two... and a strike three looking. 

Steven Cohen is Coming To Town  

(Santa Claus is Coming to Town)

Hal better look out
And likewise for Bri.
The city’s in doubt  
I'm telling you why.
Steven Cohen is Coming To Town.

Oh, he’ll sign from the top
of the free agent list.
While you bottom feed
Are you getting the gist?
Steven Cohen is Coming To Town!

He’s got a ton of money
He’s got the will to win.
It is his childhood fantasy.
And he’s itching to begin.

So, Hal, pony up
and get us a ring.
Or lose the back page
While the whole city sings…
 
Steven Cohen is Coming 

(Your cheapness is numbing.)
Steven Cohen is Coming 

(Your fan base is bumming.)
Steven Cohen is Coming To Town! 

The dilemma arrives: We need to talk about Gardy

The time has come, the Walrus said...

Yep, it's here. For weeks, I've been kicking this rock along the sidewalk. We've been frying bigger fish: LeMahiue, Gary Sanchez, pitching, pitching, pitching... Thus, the fate of Brett Gardner could wait. Besides, it's an impossible question: 

Whaddabout Gardy?  

For starters, we give respect. He's a legitimate "great Yankee," even if he was never a legitimate star. He won't make Cooperstown; he's borderline Monument Park. He's a Lou Piniella Yankee, a key role player who always made us proud. Homegrown, too. How often does that word apply to any player, much less a Yankee? How do you cut ties to a de facto team captain for the last 13 seasons, your last connection to a ring?

Well, maybe you don't. Maybe you simply ditch the algorithms, get out the wallet, and keep him. After all, he won't embarrass you. He'll grind out each at-bat. At worst, he's a late-inning defensive replacement, though... for whom? And that's the problem. 

I keep looking for Brett Gardner's role on the 2021 team, and the only one I see is "grand old Yankee."  

So, whaddabout Gardy? 

Last year, at age 36, he hit 5 HRs and batted .223 in 49 games, about one-third a normal season. He came on strong after a horrible start. He stole three bases and was thrice caught stealing. His WAR: 0.5. He earned $10 million on a one-year deal. 

So, should we give him another year? Or do we loose Gardner onto a market where - sit down for this - the Mets might snap him up. Think about that: Gardy... a Met. Sign of the apocalypse, right?  

But but BUT... if we keep Gardy, what then? This needs to be the year Clint Frazier finally plays 130 games in LF. We can't ignore him forever. If we need a LH backup, there is the far cheaper Mike Tauchman, who turns 30 tomorrow. Last year, he started hot and plummeted to Absolute Zero - (which was also his HR total) - finishing at .242. Tauchman stole six bases and was never caught. From a purely analytical standpoint, he is a younger version of Gardy with more speed and less power. 

(When discussing LF, there is also Miguel Andujar, who I suspect will be traded. We'd all love to see Miggy get 500 at-bats. That will require injuries - which brings us to the Iron Rule of the Yankees: Whenever projecting the future, expect every starter to miss half the season. So there's that.) 

So... whaddabout Gardy?

Huh? You're looking at me? Don't. I have no answer. But I do hate the idea of Gardy on the Mets. Maybe he'd refuse their offer. But who could blame him for staying in NYC, the only town he's known as a major leaguer. 

I guess I lean towards keeping him. Ain't my money. Still... whaddabout Gardy? We need to talk.