Thursday, May 12, 2022

ZacharyA: The real concern should be about Aaron Hicks

 From commenter ZacharyA...

This biggest concern on the team is Aaron Hicks. Yes, more than Joey Gallo. Let me explain.

This isn't about Hicks' failures with RISP or his persistent health concerns, though those factors are related to the issue I see.

Hicks' ability to drive the ball has completely disappeared.

Obviously Hicks has never been a big-time slugger, but he's always had a sneaky bit of power in his bat.

From 2017-2021, Hicks averaged 1 HR every 20 AB and 1 XBH every 10 AB.

In 2022, he has 1 HR in 74 AB and that's his only XBH on the season.

That home run, by the way, was a 365-footer into the short porch. According to Statcast, it would've been a home run in exactly 1 ballpark, Yankee Stadium.

I can't emphasize this enough: it's not that Aaron Hicks' power has gotten worse. It's that Aaron Hicks' power is completely gone.

Look at these numbers for Hicks:

0 balls hit over 400 ft
0 balls hit over 380 ft
2 balls hit over 360 ft
3 balls hit over 340 ft
4 balls hit over 320 ft

We're halfway through May and Aaron Hicks has hit FOUR TOTAL BALLS further than 320 feet.

Three of those balls were lazy fly outs and the fourth was a lazy flyout that went into the short porch.

This is a serious problem for a starting outfielder.

Now, you might counter and say, "well Hicks doesn't need to drive the ball when he's drawing walks."

But why would pitchers continue to pitch Hicks so tentatively if he can't drive the ball at all? The league adjusts quickly, and I'm not the only one to notice what's going on here. Hicks is not going to run a 20% walk rate when he has the batting strength of a Little Leaguer.

I don't think we can simply dismiss this as part of the leaguewide decline in power output. The league has seen a roughly 5% decrease in SLG compared with the same timespan last year, thanks most likely to the deadened ball and/or widespread use of humidors. But this is not a 5% power drop for Hicks.

I suspect that the torn tendon in his wrist, suffered last season, is the major culprit here. The question now is: will Hicks regain his power as he moves further away from his surgery? Or is this the new Aaron Hicks?

And I further suspect that this issue is at least partly the cause of Hicks' terrible numbers with men on base. With bases empty, Hicks just doesn't swing very often, and when he does, he slaps at the ball, resulting in a bunch of walks and weakly hit singles. With men on base, Hicks aims for the seats, but he doesn't have that power anymore. He can't even get a ball into the gap. And so he never does anything productive with men aboard.

61 comments:

Doug K. said...

Maybe he's modeling his swing after his golf short game.

What's really scary about what you wrote is that the Yankee outfield also has Joey Gallo. So that's no production from two of the three spots.

Dandy Prof said...

Relax. It's still early. The wrist tendon sheath injury no doubt plays a big part here. His full power may take a while to return, possibly not till next year.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Only another year to recover! Swell. Knowing Hicks, of course, I'm sure he'll be on to another injury by then.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Should I be worried that we're going up against a pitcher named "D. Cease"?

HoraceClarke66 said...

And of course, The Gleyber's sitting after his five-RBI day. Good thing. If Ma Boone isn't careful, he'll get on a roll or something, and we wouldn't want that.

Kevin said...

I have noticed that runners are taking advantage of his once great arm. It's "not what you want".

HoraceClarke66 said...

That was Judge's pitch. Swung right through it.

HoraceClarke66 said...

And another one. Challenged him and struck him out.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Stanton!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Gallo on a tear—another walk! Though he almost blew it by hesitating before taking base.

I think you have to bunt Gonzalez in this situation. Can you really expect him to hit a top pitcher?

So glad we let Tyler Wade go for nothing.

HoraceClarke66 said...

I love Higgy to death—but he is just not a major-league starter.

If the Yanks insist on keeping this lineup, they have to try to do more with it. Gallo gets on with one out against a top pitcher? You HAVE to bunt him over. Higgy might possibly single, but he's not going to homer off this guy. And maybe, just maybe, you have Gallo steal second and THEN bunt him over.

BTR999 said...

Can’t expect Gonzalez to hit any pitcher. Of course with Hig behind it doesn’t matter, does it? He looked pathetic in striking out, resembling a JV player. I gotta have more cowbell…and catching.

Yeah, I liked Wade as the 26th man.

Looks like Gil getting ready to implode.

HoraceClarke66 said...

You know it's always a good sign when your young pitcher is taking big gulps of air between pitches.

HoraceClarke66 said...

"Happy trails to you
Until we meet again..."

BTR999 said...

Another “oppo” for Stanton!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Our rope-a-dope strategy is working. We're striking out so much against Cease that he's wearing out!

BTR999 said...

He must be wearing down, Hicks actually popped out

Platoni said...

Their first 8 outs were Ks. They're scoring through those, so I'm not complaining. But that's is odd.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Three true outcomes!!!

Cashman must be dancing a jig.

HoraceClarke66 said...

WTF is Gonzalez on this team? I still cannot fathom this.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Weird, weird game.

HoraceClarke66 said...

The answer to the trivia quiz is DiMaggio, Mantle, Berra, and Musial. Just thought you'd want to know.

Nice play by Donaldson at third.

TheWinWarblist said...

Oh looky looky. Gallo struck out.

HoraceClarke66 said...

I think Zach is right. Hicks struggled, hung in, got a decent pitch on 3-2...and flied weakly to right.

HoraceClarke66 said...

The wind is on our side. Probably generated by all those Gallo whiffs.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Higgy tearing' it up tonight.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Just catch the fucking ball, Higgy.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Should've greenlighted Judge on 3-0.

HoraceClarke66 said...

...Not that it mattered.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Someone's gonna be shelling out big bucks...

TheWinWarblist said...

Judge is still good.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Of course, the pitcher is named Burr. And Judge was not throwing away his shot.

Thank you, thank you! I know you're out there, I can hear you breathing!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Lute: good pitch, no field.

Doug K. said...

MONCADA!!!!!! It took years but he finally got us.

TheWinWarblist said...

Lasagna is not still good.

Kevin said...

What's the most that you've ever lost in a coin toss?

AboveAverage said...

GALLO K
GALLO K
GALLO K

WHAT ME WORRY

Doug K. said...

The coin.

Kevin said...

Ah, but the coin got here the same way as Moncada did.

AboveAverage said...

JUDGE AGAIN!?!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Slowly I turn to you...

Funny, and I was counting on Chapman to blow this one.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Of course, that can still happen!

AboveAverage said...

STANTON AGAIN!?!

TheWinWarblist said...

Giancarlo non si puo stoparlo!

AboveAverage said...

Now Donaldson - what the hellOhecko is going on with this team?

ranger_lp said...

They’re heading for the exits Jiggs…

Kevin said...

How....do....ya...like....THAT!?

TheWinWarblist said...

Wending their way to the parking lots. GO HOME FUCKERS!!! SUCK MY ASS!!!

Beauregard Jackson Pickett Burnside said...

If even Donaldson gets a HR, you know they can’t pitch. Wish i could give Yankees credit for emptying the bases, and the stadium

Doug K. said...

This is crazy!!!! And the fans go home.

ranger_lp said...

Now Green will lose the lead…

TheWinWarblist said...

Nooooooooooooo!!! Not Green!! Not GREEN!!!

Kevin said...

HC, I was thinking the same thing about resting Torres. Always a good idea to rest a hot player, especially after a three game vacation. That MUST be a front office call, no way would an ex-player make that call.....

TheWinWarblist said...

Now I'm listening to the White Sox radio feed. They are sad.

TheWinWarblist said...

Kevin, what if that ex-player was a complete idiot? Hey, what a minute!? Gallo could be our manager one day!!

Kevin said...

Winnie, maybe a coin toss. Yeah, and the Brain bringing in Starvin' MarvIn. Yo no sabe, mang....

ranger_lp said...

Yankees Win!!!

Kevin said...

They scored fifteen runs, but Judge's two out infield hit, with Torres' great base-running probably being the key. Last year Torres would never have scored. The worst base-running Yankee team that I can remember. IMHO, that team never seemed to give a damn. Put another way, they laid down like dogs.

HoraceClarke66 said...

I know, Kevin. Torres scoring on a savvy, heads-up running play? What sort of insane, Yankees Multiverse have we wandered into???

Not that I'm complaining.


EDB said...

Duque:
"Back of the Baseball Card." The Barren is a lifetime .234 hitter. "But he walks." Sure, he does. All of the injuries have taken away from his defense. Genius Cashman who does not extend any players during the season, extended Barren Hicks. That is jus one reason why Cashman is a Genius, not.

Terry said...

Good post. Hicks is an irritant! Trade him or DFA!