Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Draft analysis: The Yankees do not believe in recent past performances

You can start growing your beard again, Doogie.
I don't claim to be a draft whiz, one of those Mel Kiper Jr. clones who crawls out of his own butthole once a year to judge winners and losers. Nope. Yankee scouts know far more than I about the 2024 teen scene. (Do the kids still say everything is "groovy?") So, take my ponderings on the recent draft with a molecule of salt - Morton's Iodized, not the Himalayan high-priced.

In their top 10 picks, the Yankees chose eight pitchers and two position players. Apparently, the brain trust intends to stock our future pond with live arms and fill the lineup with free agents and trades, which is sorta how its done business the last 15 lousy years. So, status quo...? Check!

Still, I cannot ignore one surely meaningless characteristic of the top Yankee picks: 

Last year, they sorta sucked.

Okay, tell me I'm full of it. Tell me we have a secret Yankee/CIA facility, somewhere near Scranton, where the AI ghost of Billy Connors transforms Cody Poteets into Nolan Ryans. In recent years, the Yankees have had success with young pitchers, such as - um - Chase Hampton, Will Warren, Clayton Beeter, Odainer  Mosqueda, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil. 

Look, let's just assume they know how to develop pitchers. Actually, I don't know why we'd assume this. I cannot lay out reasons. But, hell, let's assume. Because assuming is fun, at least, I assume it is. And I assume that you agree, right? Together, happily, onward... let's assume!  

That said, here are the ERAs of our top 5 picks last year.

Round 1: Ben Hess, Alabama (5.80)
Round 2: Bryce Cunningham, Vanderbilt  (5.62)
Round 3: Thatcher Hurd, LSU (5.68)
Round 4: Gage Ziehl, Miami (4.04)
Round 5: Grayson Carter, Vanderbilt (5.53)

Look, I realize you draft the person, not the stats. These kids are big and brawny, in a Dinty Moore sorta way. Surely, our brain trust can grow them into bullpen lug nuts. Still, is it too much to ask that, in your top five picks, you get at least one guy who excelled last year? 

Aww, whadda I know? Not much. The Yankees usually draft low because they regularly reach the postseason, chasing down those wild cards, in the expanded playoff system. Often, they pick players based on wild assumptions. Remember Andrew Brackman? Slade Heathcott? Cito Culver? Dante Bichette Jr? Et al? They ignore the Kipers, which is fine. And two years from now, maybe we'll have a lights-out young staff. If so, I'll eat this ether. 

One thing I think we all agree with: Draft eight pitchers, and maybe two will survive the surgeries and stresses. And that's a success. 

Still, could at least one of them have an ERA below 4.00? Just askin'... 

22 comments:

13bit said...

The problem is, El D., they ARE drafting the stats - just NOT the stats that you and I and everybody in baseball for 100 years have used as the benchmark for pitching talent.

The stat guys are in charge. We are doomed.

ranger_lp said...

Spin rate trumps ERA...

el duque said...

If a guy excels in spin rate, it doesn't mean he's a winner.

Doug K. said...

El Duque - excellent point. The Yankees need to take people from winning programs who know how to win.

As I've said before, the Knicks changed their culture when they started acquiring national champs. Guys who no how to win.

No more Pirates and A's and Rockies. More Astros and Braves (sorta) and Phillies

TheWinWarblist said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
TheWinWarblist said...

One would think that location accuracy is at least as important as spin rate and velocity and break. Isn't that what's it all about? Location, Location, location ...

Celerino Sanchez said...

Their ERAs are better than Rondon’s, so they could be future $26m pitchers?

BTR999 said...

Sound like a bunch of losers to me. If you can’t get a bunch of prep boys out, how are you going to fare against international sluggers who have been eating and breathing baseball since infancy?

MLB has no idea how to handle the draft. Why can’t picks be traded? Jesus, how did the owners become millionaires? From ugly unis to suspect rule changes, they’re more cringe worthy than a Presidential debate.

My linguistics people tell me the preferred modern equivalent for “groovy” is “hype”

When it comes to the Yankee’s MLB draft, hype is something we know all about…

DickAllen said...

As long as The Intern is at the wheel, we can expect a steady dose of failure on all fronts. Remember all the dough he spent on Latin players a few years back? A whole crop of nothing.

JM said...

Dick, I think some of those players are currently gardeners for Cashman, Hal and Trott.

Doctor T said...

I hear you 13bit & ranger_lp and go further. Spin rates and pitch speed, exit velocity are all that matter. Nobody can calculate fielding statistics accurately, so Cashman's crack analytical team don't think they matter.

And baseballs smarts have no place in Yankee development. Leave the thinking to Cashman's crack analytics crew, silly rabbits.

13bit said...

You are so right, Doctor T. I'm so foolish to have thought that baseball acumen had anything to do with baseball.

Besides, Cashman's record for the past 20 years says it all. I'll just be grateful for any crumbs that fall of off Hal's table from now on.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Celerino gets comment of the day.

PS, Fuck HAL, Fuck Ca$hole, Fuck Bonehead, Fuck MLB.

Carl J. Weitz said...

There are only 2 on the Yankees with exceptional spin rates. Boone and Cashman. Of course, they've had a lot more experience than most.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Actually, I think Carl J. Weitz might have just won comment of the day! Or at least tied...

HoraceClarke66 said...

And yeah, I was pointing out the ERAs the other day. As 999 writes, these guys can't get out college boys, but they'll be dyn-o-mite against the best the DR has to offer? In a pig's eyes.

It's yet ANOTHER bizarre Cashman draft theory. Remember how for a time he was drafting guys who had already had TJ surgery because, well, they were over that?...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...But above all, as ever, what's missing here is any sense of character.

It's how we wind up with guys like Rodon and Stroman. Character in baseball comes in many different forms, but it's there—just as "clutch" is.

It's the difference between an injured Paul O'Neill tracking down and gloving that tricky flyball to end our 1-0, Game Five win in the 1996 World Series...and Vertigo falling flat on his face trying to catch a routine pop fly in a semi-important game just before the All-Star break.

It's the difference between Mr. Speed, Aroldis Chapman, and Mr. Class, Mariano Rivera.

It's why Derek Jeter is one of the greatest players ever to put on a uniform—despite his limited "range factor"—and why almost nobody Cashman has tried to replace him with is even presentable (the big exception being Sir Didi, who was too old to last long).

Character counts! But hey, I guess if Cashie himself has done this well without it, I shouldn't be surprised that he tends to ignore it.

13bit said...

Dead on, Hoss. Amen.

JM said...

Forever and ever, amen.

JM said...

Wow. Rome had a tornado. That's pretty close to Syracuse.

ranger_lp said...

Here's 11-20:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2024/7/16/24199432/mlb-draft-results-2024-yankees-picks-day-3-picks-rounds-11-20

Doctor T said...

I finally figured out the secret recipe for Yankee analytics: V = a⋅ T+ b

It's the equation for determining absolute zero.