The IT IS HIGH 2025 PREDICTION CONTEST is now underway.
Say your sooths, eject your projections, prognosticate your progs, and predict away!
1. The number of Yankee regular season victories.
2. The number of Aaron Judge HR. (1st tie-breaker)
3. The final batting average of Jasson Dominguez. (2nd tie-breaker.)
Post them in the comments before Thursday at noon. (Those of you who already have voted; you have until then to amend your predictions - but, please, don't drive me nuts.)
Meanwhile, it's time for me to put up or shut up. Since I can't shut up, I must put up. And you must put up with me putting up. Ah, wordplay! It's like dining with M.C Escher.
"You're right, M.C., I should never say never. I tell myself to never say never. It never works. I always end up saying never. I should never say always, but I never do. Whenever I say never, I always think, that’s it, never again! It always never works."
I could go on. (Escher would, forever.) Here are 10 Bold Timid Predictions for 2025.
1. The Yankees will finish fourth in the AL East.
Why do I feel this way? Boston is on the verge of one of its every-fifth-years uprisings. Baltimore is coming of age. Tampa will play before sell-out crowds. That leaves Toronto, which will be gnarled up with the USA/Canada bullshit; the Jays will finish last, behind us. Yes, we will beat Toronto. Hooray.
2. The Yankees will win 78 games.
Why do I feel this way? Depth. We have none. We enter 2025 with our utility man, Oswaldo Cabrera, playing 3B, and our Scranton call-up, Ben Rice, as DH. Our fifth starter is Carlos Carrasco. Why kid ourselves? The injuries won't suddenly cease. The next wave - and there will be one - will mean replacing starters with Triple A lug nuts. This current lineup might win 85 games. The replacement lineup will not be a .500 team.
3. Aaron Judge will hit 60 HRs.
Why do I feel this way? Giancarlo Stanton is gone. If he returns in, say, July or August, it won't be for long. His absence will free up Judge to DH whenever necessary. I think he'll thrive in that role. Also, after mid-August, there won't be much to watch, aside from Judge chasing his own HR record. He will be our source of pride. When Met fans claim Juan Soto is better, we will shut their mouths with our bare hands.
4. The Martian will hit .232.
Why do I feel this way? Dunno. But .232 is the exact point where you wonder if 30 HRs is worth 150 strikeouts. That's how Jasson Dominguez's rookie year will unfold. He can close his eyes and walk into 30 HRs, but the Ks will pile up. I think The Martian will have a fine career - at his peak, an all-star - but he will never be Mike Trout. I hope Yank fans can accept this. And God help JD if he starts slowly, because the crowds - rabid for hope - will start calling for Spencer Jones. We might end up crushing two prospects in one year.
5. Max Fried will win 18 games.
Why do I feel this way? He's a lot like Gerrit Cole. He's cagey. He's wily. He knows his craft. Between now and the end of his eight-year contract, he'll miss a season due to injuries. They all do. But this will be his best year with the Yankees. He will be one of our few sources of pride. And whenever he pitches, in the backs of our heads, we'll wonder: Where the fuck would we be without him?
6. Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt will hit - until they're hurt.
Why do I feel this way? Well, why WOULDN'T I feel this way? Why would any self-respecting Yankee fan NOT expect them to go down? Seriously, when you ask these questions, do you know that you look like a fool?
7. The depth - or lack of it - will kill us.
Why do I feel this way? Good grief, I already said this. Did you even read the top part of this post? And this is not a bold prediction. It's a diddly shit prediction. We all know the Yankees play well until the gonads tweak. That's where depth comes in. If we have a Cameron Maybin or Matt Carpenter, we make the playoffs. If we have, um, J.C. Escarra? - well - I dunno.
8. The bullpen will be strong until Boone kills it.
Why do I feel this way? Because of fucking history, that's why! Boone kills bullpens the way Elon Musk kills retirement plans. You think he'll suddenly change? Why would you feel this way? We all know what will happen. First to go will be Luke Weaver, last year's miracle baby. Boone will use him up like a car battery in a blizzard. Once he's gone, he'll move to the next pitcher, then the next, then the next. We're managed by Agatha Christie.
9. Anthony Volpe will have a quietly successful season.
Why do I feel this way? Fans wonder if he'll hit for power (20 HRs) or average (.255.) I say he'll do both. Trouble is, he won't be Bobby Witt Jr. He won't be Francisco Lindor. He might not be Jackson Holliday or Boston's looming stud. This is a world ruled by superhuman shortstops, and Volpe won't be one. I hope that doesn't destroy him.
10. You Know Who will hit well for the Mets - until he gets injured. Yes, the Yankee tweaks taint will follow Long Gone Juan. And when he is in the ice bath, that'll be a fuck of a lot of money circling the drain. Too much money for fans or Gammonites to accept.
I honestly think he outsmarted himself by chasing every last thin dime. Met fans will cheer him - they just want us to grouse - but the rest of humanity will see through his wondrous smile. And when he goes down, good luck, Mets!
And good luck to you all. Now... put up or shut up.
27 comments:
I'm an optimist, even if I do read this blog religiously.
92 wins
43 HRs for Judge, not as optimistic about a third consecutive injury-free season for him
a middling but acceptable rookie season for The Martian: .251 BA
for all the crappy decisions made by mismanagement, the Yankees do spend enough dough to win 90-plus games just about every year. And just about every year, they seem to put together an early hot streak that makes them look like the best team ever. unfortunately, that happens in May and June, not October.
Good luck to the Bronx Bombers. Boston Sucks and Fuck You, Juan Soto.
Tom, don't forget: Boone is an idiot.
89 wins (which will be good enough to win the East)
Judge 45 HRs
Martian BA .233
I had that Martian BA in the comment I made yesterday. Duque is predicting .232. Great minds and all that.
Okay, I have revised my predictions from yesterday, based on consulting the runes and the ancient blog scrolls.
WINS - 75
JUDGE HRS - 43
MARTIAN BA -= 251
So it is written, so let it be done...
My gut says:
82 wins
Judge 38 HR
Jasson .247
Immediate preemptive contract extensions for Cashman and Boone.
Obviously, lacking eyeballs, my gut has never seen a baseball game. But my brain can't be bothered to worry about this team.
It might all work out better than many of us are predicting. Usually when Cashman's starters and stopgaps are injured, the third-stringer scrap heapers and rookies he is forced to play outperform all expectations. But it takes a while for all of his worst signings to get themselves injured, by that time the hole could be pretty deep, and at some point the big contracts come off the EL and then everything falls flat again.
Wins - 84
Judge HRs - 48
Martian BA - .227
83 wins, they'll keep the winning season streak alive and give Boone another extension
53 HRs, he'll be a beast, as always...when he's playing
.250, a nice, round number from a nice, round fella
85 Wins
Judge 45 HR
Jasson .218
AA Say:
81 wins
46 Judge hrs
.258 Martian
and
Oliver Tiberius Cat* (aka AA’s Cat) Say:
88 wins
44 Judge HRs
.266 Martian BA
* Please note that all of our other animals here couldn’t care less, although many of the neighborhood wild turkeys crash/stumble into the backyard and sound off every time Rodon takes the mound. It sort of freaks us out a bit.
Yankee wins: 96
Judge HR: 65
The Martian BA: .320
87 wins
56 Judge
310 for My Favorite Martian
And lest we forget: The Intern is the turd that got us in this mess in the first (and fourth) place.
Fuck you Cash, you useless, boot-licking turd. Actually you are worse than useless.
They'll make the playoffs and then get booted out the very first chance. The Martian is too good to hit .230. He'll likely hit almost a hundred points higher. I fear for Volpe, though, he'll probably .180, he doesn't even know whether he is a home run hitter or a line drive hitter. Judge (if he avoids injury, and I think he will stay healthy this year) will hit a ton of homers, almost all of them solo, because there's nobody ever on base with him hitting #2. Wells might have a decent OBP, but a lot of those are homers too, so Judge comes up a lot with nobody on base.
BTW, does anyone remember ever seeing a Yankee spring training camp like this one? Nobody ever plays two games in a row. Camp is almost over and Judge has hardly played. The Martian was supposed to practice being a left fielder - Jackass Boone only played him 3 times a week. I seriously doubt that anyone is ready for the regular season. Maybe Wells, he seemed to get more reps than anyone else. Look for an excruciatingly slow start this year. That's why I think Judge only hits 65 homers. I had previously thought that he comes out this year on fire and hits 85 homers, but after hardly playing this spring, there's no way he can start hot. First three weeks with zero homers.
DA - given your closing argument - perhaps you'd like to take a stab at today's Haiku.
I'm restating my prediction here:
87 Wins
JD-.283; He will have an Andujar-like rookie year and hit 38+ doubles, 6 triples, and 35 HR. And despite a horrible farm system, JD makes it consecutive seasons that Yankees players win ROY!
Judge with good batters behind him hits 56 HR
Wins 82 only because there are so many mince teams in the league we wont be able to help ourselves win a few but this team yet again is badly built and will need injury free/comeback seasons and lots of luck to be competative throughout the season
Judge 31 HR I see an injury
Martian 228 Hope I am wrong with this as I so want him to do well
Highlight for me is seeing what young players we can get when we trade Williams at the deadline and how none of them will be any good
Voice of doom from Scotland signing out
93W
52HR
.281
Wild Card at a minimum.
Why?
Simple.
Goldy>>>Rizzo. He can bend!
Jazz>>>> Gleyber (Maybe not with the bat (although...) but DEFINATELY with the glove and on the bases! Saves pitches and pitchers.
2025 Volpe>>> 2024 Volpe. He's maturing.
2024 Jazz > Oswald But not by much.
Judge>>Soto With MUCH better defense.
2024 Judge >> Belly. But not on defense! Shorter innings save pitching. Plus Belly looks like he really wants to be here. Some guys are born for the Pinstripes. He'll hit!
Martian >>>>>>>>>>> Verdugo. Yeah he'll fuck up in the field but Verdugo's AYGHAB was 0.0. Jasson's is at least a 7.5 to start.
2025 Wells >>>> 2024 Wells. This guy is going to be my favorite Yankee for the next five years. Almost Rookie of the Year last year. He will be even better.
DH Hitting Stanton >>>> Ben Rice >>>> Absent Stanton Rice will play and we had some of the worst non Stanton DH's last year imaginable. Plus Stanton returns or doesn't- I don't care. Overall I'd rather have the position open to rest Judge, Goldy, etc.
----
2024 Starters >>>> 2025 Starters. Pretty sure Gil and Schmidt come back eventually Cole is the real loss but Fried = Cole. We just don't get the second ace we thought we would. That said, didn't have a second ace last year.
2025 Relivers >>>>>> 2024 Relivers. No Holmes added a GREAT closer and a great set up guy to go with what was already a strong staff. Did I mention no Holmes? That's plus five games right there.
Management
Boone = Boone That's at least a minus three to five games but it always is, so what are you gonna do?
As an eternal NYY fan for many, many years, I believe that the core they have assembled will be strong. Depth may be marginal, but I just want to believe!
Wins= 92
Judge HR = 57
Martian BA= .255
Doug, I'm with you! This is a better team than the same time last year. Starting staff is a little short now, that's all. Lineup is much better. Defense should be better. Bullpen should be even better. Fried is an ace, probably a lot better than Prima Donna Cole. The big loss is Gil. Maybe they can get another ace at the trade deadline by trading Spencer Jones, Volpe, and Clarke Schmidt. The lack of Stanton actually helps the team. That's why they need to pay him off or release him. Pay the Piper his due. We all knew Stanton was only going to be good for a short window of time. That window was long gone after one year.
WINS - 88
JUDGE HRS - 50
MARTIAN BA -= .225
I just checked the schedule and they play the O's 7 freaking times in September and 3 times against the Red Sucks who'll be fighting hard to spite the Yanks even in if they are last place. 3 times against the Blue Jays, which could be hot team or could be a dead team.
They are so toast...But I don't see them as a below .500 team though. I'm guessing 7 games above average, which could be too generous but I think the majority of rest of the teams are just as bad and will blow more games to the Yanks than the Yanks will blow to other teams.
I really think the O's will run away with it with around a 99 and the Yanks will fight for the wild card with the other chumps. They have a team of young studs that I wish the Yanks had.
I think Martian will flop in is first real season just like Volpe. I had him at .225 as well and he done even worse at .209.
Judge HRs is too hard to predict so I went with an average 50. He could easily get 40 or 60 and anywhere in between. As long as he's healthy. I said 25 one year because I swore he'd be out for at east half of the season. I'll predict an almost full season, so he'll surely will be out for half a season this year.
Only question is, how much better are the other teams in the A.L. east? Are they really that much better than last year? The Orioles, who couldn't get out of their own way last year. The Red Sox, who are rebuilding. The Tampons, who don't have a home (awwwwww, the poor bay-bees, hahahahaha). I'll believe it when I see it. 'Til then, I think the Yankees will more than hold their own during the regular season.
Team: 91 wins (no depth, but mediocre league)
Judge: 50 HRs
Martian: .261
Bonus predictions
Boone ejections: 5
Pineapples: 6
Expressions of “Cashman sucks” or similar sentiments on this blog: 644
1. 88 wins
2. Judge 54 HR
3. Martian .270 BA
Call me crazy, but I think Goldy and Belly are going to be very positive additions that come closer to making a circular lineup.
I am reducing my prediction from 88 wins to 87. That is only 6 wins
more than " break even" ( 162 divided by two is 81, right?)... not a robust view, and reflecting our latest injuries and ding-ups. Judge will hit 43 home runs. He will walk and strike out far too often to hit more. I am at .238 for Dominguez. His BA will be close to his average age. I am horrified by our third base selection ( I like the kid but he ain't no George Kell). Bull pen scares me only a bit less than our starting five. I think Fried wins 14 games.
82, 41, .221
87 wins
Judge goes yard 57 times
The Martian hits .275
Kevin,
House That Dripped Blood, Asylum, or Tales From the Crypt ?
Just to have it all on one page...
66 wins. The AL matures, suddenly, as good young players do. Injuries and lack of depth rack the Yankees. But you knew all that.
31 Judge HRs. Love the guy. But he's a year older, and will be more injury prone than ever.
.223 for The Martian, who is not for real.
.218 for Volpe—with only 12 homers. A beginning-of-the-end season.
15 wins for Fried, who is 6-4, 190, and has never thrown more than 185 innings in his life. Give me a fat, Mickey Lolich/David Wells pitcher every time. Fried will pitch well but end up on the DL.
Yes, Boone will fry the bullpen. Again. No, Carlos Carrasco is not back.
Stanton out—addition by subtraction. Rice in—subtraction by addition.
And sorry, Doug, Austin W. is not for real, either.
Oh, and Jazz plays under 100 games.
Yanks have been dodging the Depth Bullet for years. Here it comes.
Post a Comment