So a very bad indication of the Yankees' chances of signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto came this week from Ken Rosenthal, reporting that, if the Yanks did not get the Admiral of the Eastern Sea, their Plan B was to build a "super-charged" bullpen.
Uh-oh.
Whenever the Yankees start to talk about a back-up plan, it's a surefire sign their hearts aren't really in chasing whoever their "Plan A" supposedly is. And what exactly does a "super-charged" bullpen mean, anyway?
The leading free agent out there is Josh Hader, 30 in 2024, who had 33 saves and a 1.28 ERA with San Diego last season. After that, there's Jordan Hicks, 26, who had 12 saves and a 3.29 ERA pitching for Birds in Toronto and Birds in St. Louis in 2023, and Robert Stephenson, 30, who had just finished Kidnapped and is hard at work on Treasure Island looked good in 42 middle-inning appearances for Tampa Bay last year (2.35 ERA).
Hey, s'all good, man. But...aren't these the sorts of players your New York Yankees should be pursuing anyway, considering how diminished their league-leading bullpen has been by injuries and trades since last year? And exactly how much can you "super-charge" a pen in any case? And since when is Brian Cashman the man to do that?
Probably the best pen the Yankees ever had—and maybe the best what ever was—was on the 1998 Super Team. Five guys—Graeme Lloyd, Ramiro Mendoza, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton, and The Great One—lefties and righties, who were usually at their best in the playoffs.
Cashman inherited this...and promptly traded Lloyd and let Nelson sign as a free agent. The team fell one reliever short in the heartbreaking, 2001 World Series—and then was left to desperately overwork Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, and Rivera in the 2003-2004 catastrophes.
There's also the question of exactly how much "supercharging" any bullpen really does in the first place.
In 57 years of following baseball, far and away my favorite player has been Mariano Rivera (sorry, Mick). It was actually a relief for me when he retires, I was so nervous when he went into games.
Rivera was, by any measure, the greatest relief pitcher who ever played (sorry, Goose). No question.
But did even The Great One really make that much of a difference?
The year before Mo took on the closer role, it was held by John Wettleland. He ran up 43, regular-season saves and another 7 in the postseason, where he was the World Series MVP.
What happened when Rivera got hurt midway through the 2002 season? Steve Karsay, Mike Stanton, and Ramiro Mendoza compiled 22 saves between them, and the Yanks took 103 games and the division title.
When Mariano got hurt early in the 2012 season, Rafael Soriano stepped in and saved 42 games, as the Yanks won the division and got to the ALCS. In 2014, the year after Rivera retired, David Robertson stepped up and saved 39 games.
Do you see where I'm going with this?
It's not to denigrate Mariano in any way, shape, or form. He was better than all those guys. But the gap between the very best bullpen and, I dunno, maybe the 5th or 6th best bullpen in any given season, is just not that large. Last year, the Yankees had what was, statistically, the best pen in the majors. What exactly did that do for them?
Any vaguely competent general manager—or even Brian Cashman—can usually find guys to fill in the bullpen, at least for a limited time. And it probably should be a limited time. What was most extraordinary about Mariano was his consistency and durability as a closer.
In 2022, for instance, Hader ran up a 5.22 ERA. In 2021, it was 1.23. Who knows what it will be in 2024? Jordan Hicks was also 3-9 in decisions last year, and in 2022 was 3-6 with 0 saves, and a 4.84 ERA. Stephenson has turned in jekyll-and-hyde performances (see what I did there?) his whole career, with ERAs as high as 9.90, 9.26, 6.08, 6.04, 5.43.
As a great man might say, there's no predicting relief pitching, not when you no long have a unicorn like Rivera. The real key to a "super" pen is having a GM who knows enough to stockpile depth, and be agile and adjustable in his wheeling and dealing—and that ain't you-know-who.
In today's baseball, with its six-inning starters, relievers get worn down more easily than ever. The key, particularly for the playoffs, is getting those stud hosses who can give you six terrific innings, one outing after another.
Is that guy Yamamoto? I dunno—but I think it's worth the gamble (with other people's money).
What the Yankees also have to realize is that they are in a knife fight now, and they have to win it. With it coming down to Yanks and Mets, it's all about who is going to own New York going forward. And no "super-charged bullpen" is going to decide that.
