Can the Yankees Beat the Dodgers? Yes. Will They...?

 

All right, time to get down to brass tacks. Having been completely wrong about almost every aspect of the Yankees’ season so far, I feel more qualified than ever to give you my breakdown of the 2024 World Series. That’s what being a prognosticator is all about!

So what are we looking at? Well…

1—Past results…don’t mean diddly.  The Dodgers beat us twice, in early June, in a three-game set in New York that was remarkably meaningless. 

 

The only Dodger starter from that set who is still on the postseason roster was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who threw seven strong, shutout innings, in the Dodgers’ 2-1, 10-inning win in the first game.  The Yanks started Cody Poteet, who threw almost 5 shutout innings; Luis Gil, who gave up 3 earned runs in 5 innings, and Nestor Cortes, who gave up 4 earned in 5 1/3 innings of the second game’s 11-3 loss. Luis Gil gave up 3 earned in 5 2/3, in the third game, a 6-4 Yankee win.

Even many of the usual mess of relivers are no longer around. Juan Soto missed the whole series with an injury.

 

Amongst those who were there, Giancarlo Stnaton went a hideous 0-14, with no ribbies, and 4 strikeouts. Aaron Judge was 7-11, with 4 runs scored, 5 RBI, 3 homers, and a double that was one of only two hits off Yamamoto.

 

For the Bums, Shohei Ohtani was only 2-13, with 4 runs scored, 1 RBI, a double, and no stolen bases.  Mookie Betts—batting leadoff and playing shortstop—was 4-12, with 2 runs scored, and 2 RBI.

 

So…I think we can safely conclude that, based on in-season results...nuthin’ means nuthin’.

2—The Dodgers have an awesome lineup. But…not nearly as awesome as it looked against the Mets.

 

The former Lords of Flatbush scored nearly 8 runs a game in the championship series against our NL brethren—but this was mostly because the Mets helped them to it.

 

The Queens team issued a record, 42 walks in the series, and ran up an ERA of 7.10. I know that walks are the tribute that pitching pays to sluggers, but to Tommy Edman and Max Muncy? 

Essentially, the Mets had a highly erratic bullpen all year long, while their starting staff was made up of reconstituted No. 3 and 4 starters. The bell tolled for both groups in the NLCS, and what this meant was that Dodger hitters were constantly hitting with men on base already. Take a look at the difference this meant for some of the Bums’ hitting stars in the series and in the regular season:

Tommy Edman:

NLCS:      .407/.393/.630/1.022

Season:   .237/.294/.417/.711

 

Kiké Hernandez:

NLCS:      .292/.393/.417/.810

Season:   .229/.281/.373/.654

 

Max Muncy:

NLCS:      .333/.630/.733/1.363

Season:   .232/.358/.494/.852

Even the Dodgers’ superstars significantly overperformed in the NLCS:

 

Shohei Ohtani:

NLCS:      .364/.548/.636/1.185

Season:   .310/.390/.646/1.036

 

Mookie Betts:

NLCS:      .346/.452/.710/1.182

Season:   .289/.372/.491/.863

3—Our starters need to do it. Starting pitching is the biggest edge the Yankees have over the Flock, and that edge shrinks a lot if Yamamoto somehow manages to give them two good starts, or if Jack Flaherty pitches as well as he did in his first start against the Mets.

 

We need at least three and preferably four strong starts from our supposed superstar pitchers, Cole and Rodon. And by strong, I mean 6-7 innings, 2 or fewer runs. No easy task. It would be great if we could get a couple of strong five-inning starts from Schmidt and Gil—I’m talking no more than 3 runs in that time.

Can they do this? I dunno. But we can't have another reappearance of Flouncy, or we're done.

4—Our pen has to keep doing it. The Yanks’ relief corps has been the great surprise of the playoffs so far. They need to keep it up—which won't be easy. 

 

The Dodgers will no doubt throw a “bullpen game.” Or two. Or three. This is awful for baseball, but it might work out for the Dodgers. The Mets got shut out twice, and left 52 men on base in the six games of the NLCS.

 

The Yankees are also perfectly capable of stranding endless runners. But they just put paid to a Cleveland Guardians bullpen that was considerably better than the Dodgers’—and I think I read somewhere that LA’s lefty relievers are very limited.

5—Off days? Hard to say if the absurdly long delay between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series will favor either team.

 

The Dodgers have just been shredded with injuries this season; the team has used 40 different pitchers. Their arms must have been limp as spaghetti after the NLCS. And if the delay gives someone like Freddie Freeman time to heal, then good night, nurse.

 

On the other hand…the Yankees’ own relievers had been pushed to the edge, and were beginning to look more than a little weary. Some rest might help.

 

The days off might also cool the white-hot hand of Dodger batters. It could also cool off Stanton, of course, and take Juan Soto out of his Tasmanian Devil act. But then, a little relaxation might take Aaron Judge off the schneid. The Yanks weren’t exactly ripping the cover off the ball in the ALCS. And maybe Rizzo gets better, too.

6—Chavez Ravine. The experts are all pooh-poohing the idea of home field advantage, pointing to how well the Yanks played on the road this year. Maybe so: but of course, the real home-field advantage—as determined by some mad survey that studied every game ever played, or something like it—comes from the hometown crowd unconsciously intimidating the refs or umps into calling it their way. This would favor the Bums.

 

7—Strategy. Obviously, the Yanks can’t go on running the bases like drunks. Or fielding like drunks. Nor can we keep slipping an awful, slumping lefty in between Judge and Stanton.

 

Aaron Boone seems to have learned the latter lesson, finally, so we give him his props. But is he any match for Dave Roberts? No, he is not. The Dodgers’ push to the World Series this year, in light of the mountain of injuries the team sustained, is in part a tribute to Roberts, a man who has always bedeviled us.

8—Smells like team spirit. Both these teams seem to have really bonded and both have played through a lot to get here. 

 

The Dodgers have been the best-run organization in baseball for at least the past 12 years now, no matter what Brian Cashman would like to think. They have a great GM, an excellent manager, and incredible depth. 

 

They have had some bad luck in the playoffs and have misused their Hall of Fame starter, Clayton Kershaw, when it comes to planning for the postseason. They now have another superstar at the top of their lineup, who all of MLB would love to see destroy the Yankees.

 

This Yankees team, by contrast, is full of holes, and full of doubts about its greatest hitter. On the other hand, they have pulled it together more and more as the postseason has progressed, winning one close game after another.

 

I do fear that, thanks to the days off, we will forget all that, and our less athletic lineup will be swept off the field. But if forced to pick a winner, I would say…Yanks in six.

(Oh, juju deities, please forgive me for my runaway optimism!)