Friday, December 15, 2017

Big loser in the Rule 5 draft, the people who rank Yankee prospects

In yesterday's Rule 5 draft - MLB's annual panty raid of the Yankee system - the Empire lost four prospects. It's the 2nd straight year we've been the game's most picked-over carcass. (Of course, teams must keep each draftee on their 25-man roster all season - always a long shot - so we'll probably get most of them back.) We could debate the magnitude of these losses, but who the hell knows? To me, what's notable here is that, until yesterday, the kidnapped foursome - pitchers Anyelo Gomez, Jose Mesa Jr. and Nestor Cortez and 1B Mike Ford - were mere blips in the avalanche of prospect "rankings" that arrive every winter.

Events over the last month should remind us of the folly in these lists. In November, the Yanks added to their 40-man roster pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga, prompting a blogger chorus to say, "Um... who?" For three years, Loaisiga has traveled under the radar, until Darth Cashman protected him over more touted no-names.

Last week, the former chief architect of the Yankee farm system, the Marlins' Gary Denbo, snapped up little-known Jose Devers in what the NY media would have us think is "The Great Giancarlo Stanton Steal." This too prompted instant sighs of relief: "Whew, at least we didn't lose any big name prospects!" But let's not kid ourselves: Denbo knew what he was doing. He didn't get Glyber Torres, but he might have just nabbed the next Glyber Torres.

Yesterday, the first Yankee plucked was Gomez, a 24-year-old pitcher who soared through the farm system last year - four levels in three months - while somehow escaping press. We know less about Gomez than we do of that interstellar asteroid, which is generating buzz because it's shaped like a turd. On John Sickels' recent white paper dossier on the Yankee farm system, Gomez was rated a "C+," lumped in with a dozen others who were, for the most part, more known to fans. Also on the list was Mesa - a hard name to miss because of his dad - and Ford, who always created newsprint because he's from Princeton. (Sickels didn't give Ford a rating but listed him as a "player of note.") Of the four draftees, Cortez was the most prominently blogged; Sickels put him at C+/B- (and he called him "the most interesting C+ in the system," saying he could be the next Jordan Montgomery.) Ow. 

All this points to a few things the bloggers got right: Talent-wise, the Yankees have one of the game's deepest systems. Also, I don't mean to rank on the rankers. Franchises often bury prospects rather than subject them to media blather. The lists are parlor games, and that's okay. In our hearts, we know that most will never make The Show. It's just fun to dream. Still, when dealing with trades, I offer three rules:

1. Never declare victory until at least four years have passed. (For the record; Michael Pineda signed yesterday with Minnesota, and Jesus Montero is now playing in the Mexican League - wait, should we sign Jesus? I SAY, YES! WHAT A BACKSTORY!) I still fear that last year's trade for Sonny Gray will be condemned by future Yankee generations. 

2. Always assume the other team got more than what the Yankees claim was lost. Our franchise's kryptonite has always been hubris, and the NY media loves to claim we gave up next to nothing. (Gammonites have a vested interest in Cashman returning their calls.) Today, the Stanton deal does look great. In five years, if Stanton is a $33 million millstone and Jose Devers is a star... well, print this out and save.

3. Always remember: There is no long game in trading youth. Anybody old enough to remember the 1980s knows this. Today, it looks like the Yankees are about to deal Clint Frazier - basically because Jacoby Ellsbury is an anvil in the pile of feathers - for another of Cashman's power arms. Every few years, he bundles prospects for a Next Sure Thing: Javier Lopez, Jeff Weaver, Humberto Sanchez, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray - only to find they're a month past the sell date. Now, it looks like Geritt Cole. Yeah, I realize Frazier is blocked in the outfield. Still... insert sigh here.

All I know is that when it happens, no one should be surprised if the media looks at prospect rankings and shouts, "Wow, the Yankees gave up nothing, nothing!" And what the hell is that turd-shaped rock floating in space? My guess: It's one of the moon shots that was hit off Weaver.

15 comments:

Der Kaiser said...

Does anyone know if any of last year's Rule 5 losses was ever returned to the Yankees?

And how is it that no other team with a vaunted farm system (in recent years, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros) ever seems to get robbed like this? I understand a team that plays the game by Bud Selig's rules and tanks for multiple years may have no veterans clogging up their 40-man roster, but they still have to field a team of no-names who also occupy roster space until the real prospects are ready. Is it just that the media hypes the Yankees farm system so much that everyone looks there first?

Dr B said...

Man...you write like I think. why not go with under control, salary friendly arms like Adams and Sheffield et al for the 5th /6th slot behind CC (yes, he will come back, just a leverage play with bluejays).
Thanks for the brain food...keep it coming

13bit said...

Clint??? Fuck that.

Plus, any old retread turds that we trade the farm for will FORCE us to keep the remaining kids down there. It's like "How could we possibly bring up Chance or Justus since we just trade our best prospects for Bozo, with his lifetime 4.1 ERA?"

It's a shitty vicious circle. They clog up the drain and then we have to get rid of our best prospects just to get rid of THEM. In the end we have nothing.

I had been really high on the coming season until two weeks ago. Now, not so much. This is feeling like old times, but not the good ones.

Anonymous said...

Cortes will stick with the O's. Lefty, low 90s fastball, tops, but keeps everything down and gets lots of groundballs. Would have liked to see him in the Bronx.

Anonymous said...

HEY CASH let's not forget Gardner won't be around forever how bout keeping red thunder grooming him to be the next lead off man. If a dynasty is what we're after and not just the 2018 title

BFG

Anonymous said...

Gerrit Cole is not a bozo. He is a stud. At best a number 1 and at worst a number 3 and you have him for age 27 and 28 seasons at low cost. He had his worst year in 2017 and he still would’ve led the Yanks in innings and been the second best pitcher on the staff. You do the trade - Clint and 1 other for Cole - every day of the week.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Gerrit Cole is not a stud. In 2015, he was a stud.

Since then, his ERA—in a league where you get to face the other team's pitchers—has gone from 2.60 to 4.26.

He pitched a lot of innings in 2017? Gee willikers. He also allowed 31 homers. In Yankee Stadium and the AL East, he will be charred toast, coated in Vegamite...if he does not require immediate arm surgery, which is a strong possibility.

The idea of trading Clint Frazier for him makes me sick. THIS is the sort of deal that Cashman should be fired for, not grabbing Stanton—just as the problem with the Yankees from 2004-15 wasn't A-Rod, but his idiotic deals for the likes of Vazquez, Brown, Randy Johnson, etc., etc., etc. ad infinitum.

Yanks would have been much better off signing Yu Darvish, and getting him to stop tipping his pitches, or even signing Alex Cobb.

This is such stupid thinking. Instead of simply swallowing Ellsbury's ridiculous salary and letting him go, we will now play him, meaning that we will double down on stupidity. I would rather pay a bad, over-the-hill player like Ellsbury and NOT play him, than pay him AND play him.

Awful.

HoraceClarke66 said...

This gets even worse, almost sickeningly bad.

People are talking about the deal for Cole including Thairo or Andujar, plus Chance Adams.

This could be Cooperstown's all-time turd asteroid...and only for the usual, bad reasons: he can't get rid of the Ellsbury contract, and he won't give up on somebody he once tried to acquire, which is Cole.

It's Vazquez all over again, only in the case of Vazquez we only gave up the perpetually injured Nick Johnson the first time, and a couple of middle relievers the second time.

This...this is an atrocity.

Stang said...

By the way, Disney is trying to buy YES. They already own Luke Skywalker, Spider-Man, Uncle Scrooge, and Homer Simpson, and soon they'll own Micheal Kay.

13bit said...

Just to make it clear to all of you people who have no name - when I see "anonymous" on a post, I don't read it. On principle. And I'm not the only one. If you can't at least be the same person on a consistent basis, your words mean nothing.

Anonymous said...

NOT GOOD....

COOPERSTOWN CASHMAN JUST CAN'T CORRECT THE 1 GLARING PROBLEM HE HAS REPEATEDLY MADE FOR 20 YEARS NOW.

HE KEEPS ACQUIRING PITCHERS FROM THE NATIONAL LEAGUE. (MINUS SONNY GRAY LAST SEASON).

IT ALMOST NEVER WORKS OUT.

COLE HAD A 4.26 ERA LAST YEAR IN THE NL.

YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS......

GET READY FOR AN ERA HOVERING NEAR OR OVER 5 NEXT SEASON.

I'M NOT CRAZY ABOUT COLE EVER SINCE LAST YEAR WHEN I SAT ON MY COUCH TO WATCH HIM PITCH AGAINST THE LOUSY METS.

HE GOT KNOCKED OUT OF THE GAME BY THE 3RD OR 4TH INNING (GAVE UP 4 OR 5 RUNS).

...BUT THAT WASN'T THE REAL SHOCKER TO ME.

THE REAL SHOCKER WAS LESS THAN A WEEK LATER, HE PITCHED AGAINST THE METS AGAIN, AND I FIGURED, "OK, NOW HE WILL GET REVENGE AND SHUT THEM DOWN."

NOPE.

HE GOT HIT THE SAME WAY THE 2ND TIME AS HE DID THE FIRST TIME! (3 OR 4 INNINGS. 4 RUNS).

.....AND THIS WAS AGAINST THE SHITTY HITLESS METS.

.....AND FOR THIS, WE HAVE TO GIVE UP CLINT FRAZIER AND WHO KNOWS WHO ELSE.

BRAKE HIS PHONES.

MFER.

HoraceClarke66 said...

You are, sadly, all too right, ALL-CAPS.

He never learns anything. He himself thinks Red Thunder has a phenomenal swing and will only get better with more playing time. I've heard other people compare Frazier to a young Fred Lynn.

But hey, he's willing to trade him for a pitcher who is obviously on the decline, and may well have an arm injury.

Awful.

JM said...

Fucking Cashman.

And Aaron Fucking Boone, too.

Anonymous said...

Fellow anonymities...13bit's words on an aggressively and charmingly amateurish Yankees fansite mean something. Yours, ours, don't.

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