Saturday, August 15, 2020

Stanton and Judge: Over the long term, can the Yankees keep two injury magnets?

Damn... this was going to be THE YEAR for Aaron Judge. 

This would be his MVP season, his Triple Crown threat, his Silver Slugger bat and Golden Glove trophy - maybe even his ring. He'd ride the largest float in the Canyon of Heroes. Next spring, as baseball emerges from the pandemic - (fingers crossed) - he would stand not only as the game's biggest name, but perhaps the brightest star in American sports. At age 28, this would be his peak. 

And, damn, it was happening... 

Over 20 games, a third of this truncated season, he'd blasted nine homers. Projected over a full 162-game year, he'd hit 72 HRs, a ridiculous number. Truthfully, he was never going to stay that hot. But still, this looked like his year.

And now... well, fukkit! By now, I'm sure you all know he's out - again. This time, it's a tweaked calf. Officially, he'll miss a week. But that's a joke. If history is any measure, figure him out until September - another Judgian season sabotaged by muscles too large, tendons too stretched, a rubber band physique perpetually fraying. As he ages, it's probably not going to get better.

Since his rookie season - age 25, when he played 155 games - the line on Judge's durability has drifted steadily downhill. In 2018, he notched 112 games. Last year, 102. This year, he was going to miss the first three months with a rib fracture, before they were wiped out by COVID. It wasn't certain that he'd make the July opener. His homer spree became the feel-good story of baseball's opening week. Now, we are back to normalcy, which means No. 99 on the shelf. 

Normalcy... damn. In a normal universe, Judge's future as a Yankee would be carved into stone. He is the Face of the Franchise. He bats second. He covers right field. He kisses babies. If you want to be critical, his lone flaw as a player and a person is that ability to stay healthy. But as lone flaws go, it's a humdinger. 

And we already have a star who does not play. His name is Giancarlo. We have him until 2028, at $25 million per season, long after his muscles will be withered and his bat will be in splinters. 

Can we afford two OF-DHs, at about $50 million per year, who play in a handful of games? Maybe in the pre-COVID world, the Yankees could go there. Now, I'm not so sure.

But there is one hope. I never thought I'd write these words, but we have a lot of baseball yet to play in 2020. There remains a solid narrative that could inscribe Judge into the city's concrete culture.

With or without Judge, the Yankees remain a contender in the AL East, if not the team to beat. Six weeks from now, they will almost surely start the playoffs. Barring a setback - and yes, we are in the Ellsburian Age of players who get hurt during rehab - Judge should be back by then. 

If he leads the Yankees to a championship, even in this dry cough of a season, Judge could cement his legacy in Gotham. (The Yankee brand is desperate for a ring.) But if things go south - if we botch a three-game series or run into a super-heated team of destiny - the brain trust may start viewing Judge as Boston did its own superstar outfielder. 

It's likely that someday, Mookie Betts will enter the Hall of Fame as a Dodger. Look down the road, and maybe Judge will be there too, but not necessarily in the jersey we want. And when we look back, we will say it all went sideways in the middle of that wretched pandemic season. Damn...

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

let him continue to play in his arbitration years without a contract. Then try a short 3 year contract through around 2026 and be done. I love him, but he's hurt too much.Every single year and it will get worse, not better with age. Stanton is bad enough; with two "dead money" contracts, the Yanks will never spend money later this decade. Let him be the new Albert Poujus with a west coast team. I do love him; this is strictly business

Publius said...

That's probably right. Interesting to consider that maybe Judge agrees too, and is slightly concerned that if he puts up the gigantic numbers of which he seems capable during his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, his FA market value will be so high that the MLBPA will force him to sign a Pujols-ian/Harper-ian deal with the highest bidding Padres or Mariners or some other team swinging from the heels and with no larger plan than making a splash, firing up the local fans, increasing merch sales for a year or two, and justifying a new local TV deal. "You have historical duty to the little guy, Big Guy. Nice reputation you have there too, with the sponsors and all. Shame if that all went away because the world finds out your mother's college roommate's ex-boyfriend's brother was arrested for kiddie porn. Headlines might fail to capture the nuance, you understand." Maybe Judge doesn't want to deal with bullying like that, so is colluding in the depression of his market value by missing chunks of time. That way he can take a shorter, and/ or less valuable deal (almost certainly augmented by ethically dubious but legal side deals) in FA to remain a Yankee through his declining but still.productive years, and retire gracefully in his mid 30s, rather than hang around on a mediocre team putting up sub league average WAR against pitchers half his age because the union says he has to, or else.

Publius said...

Another idea is that Judge is negotiating with the Yanks via injury. Why not lock him up through, say, his age 36 season now, ala Dodgers with Mookie? Not the Yankee way. To which Judge says..."well, in that case, I gotta be uber careful with every ache and pain. I'm year to year here. Sure, I could probably play through this calf thing, but jeez, what if I'm wrong? I'm on a one year deal here. Can't risk it. Sure, if I was locked up long term I'd look at this one differently, I hardly feel it really, and probably test it a bit more, it's really not so bad, but you just never know. "

Matt P. said...

Maybe there will be a new market following the loss of revenue this year that takes money and years off while negotiating contracts, but I don’t see how Judge would take anything short of 7 years otherwise. It may be his only chance to get the megabucks and no smart agent would settle on 3 years for one of the faces of the game. If he goes short term and those deals continue to be hampered by injuries, he could be near worthless by 32. Sadly I wouldn’t go 7. Same with Sanchez (I think we know who he is by now and Yanks have been replenishing farm system with catchers). Crazy to think 3 years ago the future was 100% through these two players. Right now it’s highly likely at least one if not both are not long term solutions.

Anonymous said...

Some silver linings ...

1) Frazier drove in two more with a double. If Judge plays Frazier doesn't. While Judge is better, it's great to see Frazier both up and up to the task. The kid deserves it.

2) The Red Sox truly, truly suck at a level of suckatude that is staggering. Did anybody watch feared hitter J.D. Martinez just give up several times? WTF? It was like he just didn't care.

3) Gleyber looked like a guy who suddenly remembered that a good hitter can drive in runs without hitting home runs.

4) DJ (no comment needed)

5) and last, Cole. It's been so long I forgot what an ace looks like.

Doug K.

JM said...

During last night's game, Kay and Cone and the Goofball in Cincinnati were discussing Judge's injury and how serious calf problems can be if you don't catch them early.

And I think it was Kay (would make sense) who queried, "I wonder if the injuries have something to do with his size?" Because Judge is 6' 7", and being so big must put a lot of wear and tear on his body parts and stuff.

This is Michael Kay, who has a daily radio show where he talks about all of the pro sports. You know, like the NBA. A league full of guys who are really, really big and go tearing up and down a basketball court, twisting and turning and slamming into each other all the time. Without needing three weeks on the injured list for every two they play.

Jesus guacamole. What a ding dong.

But he's doing a great job positioning O'Neill as the new Scooter. Could be a good career move for the warrior, from intense and angry battler to a likable little eccentric with a wife named Cora. Wonder how he feels about lightning?

Publius said...

Between Scooter talking about getting over the bridge before the post game traffic picks up, and his asking the producer "Are we going to Florida tonight?" (ie is the broadcast on the air in Ft Lauderdale), I spent my childhood thinking Scooter drove from the Bronx to Florida a dozen or more times a summer after games.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Never thought of O'Neill as Scooter, but it fits.

Stanton, don't hate the man, but...

Frazier would be a third year starter without Stanton.

Must there be a designated huge salary assigned to the DL? I mean, is there an insurance angle the suits are using? It's like they are required to have an anchor on the DL. And it's the DL. I don't care what the interwebs say.

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