And one of the amazing facets of the Yankiverse is how our world views can change after a stunning, out-of-body loss. Last night, for example.
The bullpen blew another lead, and in the 10th, the Yankees couldn't move a runner from second to third, swinging and missing (as the Mets did the previous night.) A golden harvest of disappointments.
Once again, we await some magical, unknown changes that will somehow transform the 2023 Yankees into a team that matters. The more we hope, the less likely anything will happen.
Last winter, shortly after signing The Great Carlos Rodon, Hal Steinbrenner gushed to the civilized world that the Yankees were "not done!" improving the team. Considering the then-sinkholes at LF, 3B and SS, Yank fans believed him. We anticipated another deal, or maybe a free agent signing, to show once and for all Hal's determination to elevate the Bombers to the top of MLB, or at least NYC.
Well, it's been four months, and we're still waiting. And we are slowly gleaning the truth: It aint a-gonna happen.
Reports show the Yank team payroll - realistically, the most important analysis that Hal sees - now sits at about $292.2 million, barely a Willie Calhoun below the $293 million MLB luxury tax threshold. If Hal adds payroll, he'll have to shell out gobs of luxury tax money, which he is loathe to do.
Thus, come the Aug. 1 trade deadline, whatever the Yankees do - if anything - their moves will revolve around Hal's bedrock desire to not go above that golden ceiling.
That means little leeway in new acquisitions. And it means further depleting a farm system that already looks sickly, when compared to our rivals.
Last year's crown jewel, Anthony Volpe, remains in an existential struggle for survival. This week, Volpe changed his batting stance. Maybe it'll help. But if it doesn't, it's just another pogo dance in quicksand. When June turns into July, if Volpe is still hitting .190, hope will be hard to sustain. We might even hear scattered boos, which would be awful.
Meanwhile, this year's jewel, Jasson Dominguez, is struggling to hit .200 in Double A. The official line on "The Martian" is that he's so feared by other teams that their pitchers pitch around him. I dunno. For a new guy, that's an old excuse.
It's hard to imagine the Yankees trading Volpe. But Oswaldo Cabrera and/or Oswald Peraza are a different story, and Estavan Florial looks like a goner. If all three were packaged together, would it bring a competent left-fielder? (And then, who would play SS, IKF? He can do almost anything, but... yikes.)
Having watched the Yankees squander leads over the last two weeks - a 5-5 record - this we know:
1. They now sit 9 games behind Tampa in the AL East, and are clinging to the final Wild Card slot in a scrum with Houston and Toronto. Even Baltimore now looks like a bridge too far.
2. The injuries won't stop. We can tell ourselves that all will be okay when Judge returns, but let's be real here: Somebody else will be out. That's China Town, Jake. This hospital ship cruise won't end.
3. As we contemplate trades, let's remember that last August, Brian Cashman totally shat the bed. This year, Cashman's best moves were to sign scrap heapers - Calhoun, Jake Bauer and Billy McKinney. They can serve as valuable pieces. But none will salvage the season. (McKinney - hitting .333 - might go when Harrison Bader returns this weekend.)
Unless Volpe improves, I don't know how the Yankees can fix their problems and stay within Hal's payroll limits. The Aug. 1 trade deadline might come and go, and the Yankees will still be mired in a Wild Card race with a one word description: Disappointment.
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This team, as presently constructed, will make the playoffs. Let's face it everyone else sucks. So Hal's not going to add payroll. Expect a few more Billy McKinneys or Rich McKinneys or Mike Kilkennys at the dealine.
Soon we will hear how Rondon and Montas are throwing to their children and are just a few weeks away from throwing in a Live T-Ball contest.
Joel Sherman/Buster Ulney will soon have articles saying look out for the Yankees if they get healthy
It shouldn't be a question of whether or not Hal will go over the LT line in payroll. He will 100% not exceed that figure. Remember, last winter, Hal voted against raising that threshold precisely for the same reason he won't go past it. He doesn't want to spend any more money. It's as simple as that. The one big advantage his organization had, he refused to exercise. Because he's a cheap MF-er.
There is a possible out in the payroll department which Hal might swoon over.
Trade Torres and relieve him of the remainder of the 9.95M that is owed this year.
Plug in Peraza at basically the MLB minimum. Get two minor leaguers which can be added next year when Donaldson falls off and/or a young controllable OF at like 1M.
Right now Hal would save 5M for the trading of Torres, paying Peraza a click about MLB min, would save him 4.2M.
Lots of leeway for minor guys as well.
Of course Montas will save a nice buck for Hal next year as well, unless Cassie signs him to a 4 year deal at 18M per.
I looked over at the Texas Rangers roster and noticed a familiar name.
Ezequiel Durán, is hitting .295/.343/.500 (.843 OPS) in 178 PA while playing 2B/SS/3B/LF.
Remember when we traded him away for Joey Gallo?
Certainly couldn't use a guy like that right now.
I looked over at the San Francisco Giants roster and noticed a familiar name.
Thairo Estrada is hitting .296/.347/.485 (.832 OPS) in 251 PA, while playing 2B/SS/LF.
Remember when we gave him up for cash considerations?
Certainly couldn't use an athletic, toolsy guy like Thairo around here.
I was on FanGraphs and noticed Estrada was 7th in the National League in WAR among position players.
Seems to me like when your GM gives up a guy like that for nothing but cash it's not a good thing.
But what do I know.
@ Celerino, I don't know about making the playoffs. If I was a betting man, I'd say it's like a 1 in 20 chance. Their only chance is the wild card. You know the ASS-stros will wake up down the stretch. They always do. If the ASS-stros pass Texas, then the Yanks would have to catch Texas or the Orioles. And that ain't happening either.
Cashman is so bad, even his stalker has lost interest in him.
@ Zach, Estrada seemed like a good player with upside. Next thing you know, he was gone. For a bag of money. For his sake, I'm glad they disposed of him. If they'd kept him, he probably gets Florialized. Spends his whole career in the minors.
I don't know that Duran does the same thing if the Yanks had kept him. He probably would be hitting .180 for this team. That seems to be the new normal here.
Another badly composed team courtesy of the World's Greatest Intern and his elite gang of sabermoron advisors. The lineup is filled with players who can't hit their body weight. It's Judge, Rizzo and pray for rain. The bullpen amounts to a gaggle of kids and pick ups (because, you know, RP's are replaceable like toothbrushes).They have the world's greatest pitching rotation ever assembled, in the trainers room, along with half the outfield on any given day. 2 out of 5 of the most injured players in baseball. A running game that stopped, suddenly in mid-May (why did Volpe stop stealing bases in mid-May after tearing up the infield in April?) as the team reverted to their fabled 3 true outcomes offense.
Their AAA team is so old, they qualify for Medicare. Aside from Oswaldo and a couple of relief pitchers, any prospect with potential is sitting at the kiddie table, far from the majors, waiting to be traded for someone else's broken bicycle.
Frankly, Steinbrenner could double the payroll and this team would still not win a championship, because management - Cashman, Levine, Trost, Fishman, Boone, et. al. - don't know what they are doing.
I listened to this putrid affair on the radio. Sterling seemed to be in pretty good form. His call on the IKF steal of home was exciting. You know Justin Shackel would've made it sound like someone baked a loaf of bread in the oven.
Too bad these bozos couldn't bring home the bacon last night. Another classic Boone fuck up with the bullpen pissed away that 3-1 lead. Not that they deserved the lead. Metsies gifted the Yanks the two runs, and the Yanks gifted them right back.
About the only good thing from this one, aside from the IKF steal, was Volpe hitting the ball the other way. Even in the 10th, I think he hit one foul down the right field line. So he must've been working on going the other way. Good for him. The question is, what took so long?
At nypost.com, there is an article about Volpe. And it mentions the Chicken Parmigiana Incident, the tutorial that he got from buddy Austin Wells. But read the comments underneath the article. Seems like the entire fucking world knew about Volpe pulling off and opening up his left hip too early. Everyone except Volpe and the Yankee hitting coaches. Is that unintentionally hilarious or what? Sometimes the sports section of nypost.com is side-splitting funny. Almost as funny as IIHIIFIIC.
@ Doctor T., Volpe stopped stealing because he was never on base. Seems to me the whole team was never on base. In the three true outcomes crap, they forgot about the walk. They stopped drawing walks. It became two true outcomes.
Not Boonesfarm's fault. Health and safety team told him that King, Peralta and Holmes were not available last night. And today's an off-day. Off-day. Today...
The lack of situational hitting on this squad is appalling. Trevino and Volpe both had awful AB’s in situations calling for a disciplined, nuanced, WINNING approach. Overall, the team was 1-15 with RISP, and needed Met’s miscues and a steal of home (which I loved) to score. Anytime we go into extra innings it’s very likely we will lose. The managing was abominable as well. Why wasn’t a .190 hitter bunting? Why the ass-end of the bullpen in the 10th? Game on the line and the last man (Ramirez) on the mound. I saw boone did address that afterwards, playing the load management card despite multiple days off this week. That is living proof that the team doesn’t give a damn about winning, the final WC and the accompanying reduced chance of winning a championship are just fine with them. That way, the porcine Steingrubber and his braying jackass lackeys can squeal about another winning season.
It’s a goddam shame what they’ve done to this franchise isn’t it?
ISN’T IT?
@ The Hammer of God - Acknowledged. The Yankees went back to their fabulous 2-true-outcomes offense (HR/K). But looking at the speed element, Volpe stole 13 bases from March 30 to May 13. He's stolen 1 since them. Using May 13 as Volpe's dividing line, Volpe's OBP did drop from .298 at the beginning of the season to .206 thereafter. But his percentage of steal attempts, against number of times on base (hits, walks, HBP), also dropped from .271 to .050. The team's overall percentage of steals also dropped, from .068 to .050. When you consider 13 of the first 31 stolen bases were Volpe's (42%), it looks like the Yankees killed off their running game.
Volpe never got caught stealing, while the rest of the team got caught 17 times. While Volpe's BA and walk decline affect the number of stolen base chances he might have, the kid just stopped stealing bases, even when he was on-base. Either he's hurt and we don't know it, or Fishman's geek squad just f-cked up the team again.
Since he hasn't missed many games, I'm betting its the Yankee analytics department, screwing up the team again.
Yes it is a Gosh Darn shame, godddamn it!
Loved the Pogo dance in quicksand.
And Scream and Scream Again.
And IKF stealing home.
And Coney at my birthday party.
And yours too, Hammer.
What will it take?
Stay tuned
The running game has fallen out of fashion in MLB in recent years. The Lords of MLB have attempted to reignite running by increasing the size of bases, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yanks are behind the times. That’s what happened when you have an entrenched bureaucracy with no fear of accountability running things. If you’re rewarded no matter what, why change? So the team remains behind in every area save one: prices.
Hee-hee! Yes, "pogo dance in quicksand" was GREAT. You are en fuego these days, Duque.
You guys have, again, solved it.
The Yanks are stuck—as ever—between the Scylla and Charybdis of baseball.
HAL is convinced that he has found THE formula for maximizing profits: contend for a wild card every year, don't worry about winning it all, DON'T, as Carl Weitz points out, increase your team's greatest advantage.
All of which might still work, with competent help.
But then we have Charybdis Cashman, with his inane insistence on applying dubious theories of baseball that he doesn't understand in the first place.
One day it's gonna end sooner than greater, as the great Elvis Costello wrote. But not, I fear, before we've all moved on.
First, Hal said he would spend at the deadline this season. Yeah, sure. The Genius will find more retreds. Ask yourself who is making the decisions in personnel? Same old answer, Genius Cashman and his clueless staff!
Does Volpe have a new batting stance for bunting? Could have helped in the 10th last night.
Mariners just signed Didi Gregorius from Mexican League and assigned him to Tacoma in the PCL. An upgrade from Volpe? Like MacArthur, he could return.
I don't think that we are really grasping the 'crux of the biscuit' here fellas. Cashman can't trade for any top-tiered players, we have a farm that hasn't followed established farming practices. What is Cashman supposed to do, trade our top five ranked minor leaguers for, for what exactly? Of course he will trade for douche-bags. That's what our coinage buys. No, the smart thing would be to try and move our desirable major leaguers for minor league help. "Desirable" means relatively cheap players with control, who can push contenders over the top. Not a complete teardown. You can't do a teardown with expensive, under-performing players. Maybe I'm wrong, Rodon and Montas comes back strong, same with injured bullpen stalwarts. Maybe Volpe or someone else figures it out and the team comes roaring out after the break. But my best-case scenario is asking a lot. What SHOULD be done: A competent GM starts quietly making "minor" under the radar trades, guys who know how to actually play baseball (as compared to the metrics darlings), allow the farm system to replenish, and fill in with mid-tiered free agents (again, ball PLAYERS). When the team is on the verge, pounce on the right big ticket guys. Problem is, by that time Cole and Aaron are on the downside... I dunno how this can come out well in the foreseeable future. Any ideas?
The Yankees are freighted with dumb long-term contracts that will pay stratospheric numbers to a bunch of guys in their sunset years--Cole, LeMahieu, Judge, Rodon, etc. That contravenes the basic precepts of analytics, despite the widespread belief on this blog that Cashman is Bill James redux. Team Cashman has traded away much of the core of the farm system, and seems to have misjudged what remains: prematurely and unwisely rushing Volpe (who has never shown an ability to hit well above A ball [spring training is an outlier and doesn't really count for much]), burying Florial, etc. He has a stubborn and perverse addiction to recidivist failures from other teams--the Gallo-McKinney-Calhoun-Bauers types--clinging to the mystical hope that he can conjure lush verdure from other teams' dung heap just because the players haul on pinstripes. This is NOT analytics--it's magical thinking. This whole franchise is a second-rate dump, from the players to the announcing booths to the front office to the ersatz baseball stadium that replaced the real one. It's going nowhere but over a cliff.
EBD, you make a lot of great points. But to buy the best players you have to be willing to buy the player's Golden Years. And with that in mind, perhaps the best team building strategy would be to stock a team with as many second-tiered players as possible. Guys who will take the 4-6 year contract,and don't devastate a team if they get hurt, or flop.
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