Some of the most painful Yankee defeats in memory came this summer. We watched our Olympian bullpen implode. We watched scores of runners stranded on base. We suffered walk-off defeats that were choked down like plates of bad clams.
But not lately. Over the last two weeks, as the regular season has given way to the reality of a one-game Wild Card, Yankee games have turned into easily forgotten, half-hearted blowouts and/or clunkers. We either climb atop our opponent, MMA-style, and beat his skull for nine innings, or they get us in an elbow lock, and we yell "Uncle." Nothing goes to the wire because - seriously - nobody really cares. Sure, both teams want to win, but nobody needs a broken collarbone from going Adrian Peterson into a wall. Then there are the September pitching call-ups. Kids get their first tastes of MLB bats, and hilarity ensues. Or - like Jonathan Holder last night and Chasen Shreve in every September we've seen - a guy simply runs out of diesel. Holder pitched well back in April - a million years ago - but this is the longest season in his brief life, and he looks like one of those fried Hostess Twinkies they sell at the State Fair to drunk high school football players, who are trying to impress girls.
We haven't lost a heart-breaker in weeks, and everything now simply depends on one game. Which Yankee team will show up against Minnesota Tuesday? The blowout or the clunker.
If you believe in biorhythms, or phases of the moon, or times of the month, or simple random numbers, consider the Girardi Sequence - the skein of Yankee outcomes in the last 30 days. Frankly, I'm not sure what it shows. The Wild Card shall be a game unlike any other - a season in a game, a play within a play, "eternity in an hour," William Blake would say. But every Yankee and Twin will be on his own male menstrual calendar, and we've all seen the Yankee team that can do nothing right: the Judge who lunges at ball four, the Betances who hits the lead-off batter on an 0-2 count. If either shows up Tuesday, we're that plate of bad clams, topped off with the Twinkie.
Since September 1, here is the Girardi Sequence, current games in red/blue - and the next three extrapolated in gray:
Loss. Win. Blowout. Blowout. Loss. Win. CLUNKER. Win. Blowout. Blowout. Loss. Win. Blowout. Blowout. Blowout. Blowout. Loss. Win. Win. Blowout. CLUNKER. Blowout. Blowout. Blowout. CLUNKER. Blowout? Blowout? Blowout? WILD CARD CLUNKER?
As you can see, the Yankees have a recurring tendency to win two or three games, and then suffer a loss. It's as if they know they're not the Cleveland Indians, who can rattle off 20 in a row - as if they realize in private moments that for every two - or maybe three - wins, a clunker is coming.
I certainly don't profess to know what will happen Tuesday. But the Yankees ought to lose one of the three final games this weekend - preferably Saturday or Sunday. We love to watch them sweep teams, especially at home, especially teams as vile as Toronto. But we need to lose one and be fresh from a bad outing. Otherwise, we will be ripe for a clunker - the last and most gruesome pineapple of 2017.
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40 comments:
Hi guys I'm back. sorry I over-reacted to 'Stang's post. Had just buried my father at Arlington and was emotionally overwrought.
Go Yankees!
Sorry to hear, KD. Condolences, and never worry about over-reacting on this site. (It's sorta what we do.) Glad you're back.
HANG IN THERE KD.....
GO YANKS.
ON TO GIRARDI.....(AS HOSS NOTED)-
HOW COULD HE PROFESS TO BE DISAPPOINTED IN NOT GAINING ON BOSTON LAST NIGHT?
JONATHAN HOLDER?
GIRARDI AMAZES ME.
IT'S LIKE, IF YOU OWN A HANDGUN IN YOUR HOUSE, BUT YOU HAVE SMALL CHILDREN LIVING THERE.
GIRARDI LEAVES THE GUN LOADED, BUT KNOWINGLY DOESN'T LOCK THE SAFE THAT IT GOES IN, SAYING TO HIMSELF, "WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THERE SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM."
HE REALLY SCARES ME.
KD, I'm sorry to hear about your father.
You have nothing to apologize for. Had I known what you were going through, I'd have kept my big mouth shut. I'm glad you're back.
Go Yankees!
KD:
There's no need for any apologies. We're all glad you're back. Losing a parent is difficult under any circumstances and you have my sincere condolences.
Here's a question: Does anyone know why today's game is a day game?
I can't recall ever seeing a Yankee home day game on a Friday other than on a newsreel. What gives?
I believe the Yankees scheduled the day game because they heard about yesterday's thread, and they all wanted to get home this evening while they were all fresh so they could review and discuss.
So glad our fellow Village Idiot, KD, is back, even with his heavy heart.
Oh, stop it. you'll make me cry.
too late...
KD:
Sincere condolences my friend,,,, and welcome back!
Ditto, to all of the above.
And why is this Friday different from all other Friday games? I believe it's because of Yom Kippur. Many of us need to get home and start atoning before sunset.
Although in baseball, being a Yankees fan means never having to say you're sorry!
KD - I know we don't know each other but I am very sorry for your loss.
Horrace and others: Yes, Yom Kippur. G-d was tired of people checking the scores during the Ashamnu.
Shana Tova. May your fast feel as quick as Mickey Rivers and then may you make like Ron Davis attacking the buffet.
Doug K.
LBJ - I know why.
It is the day before my wife's birthday.
Alternatively, it is the fiscal end to the third quarter.
Someone is afraid that a Trump would attend a night game.
Hal needs to save on electricity.
Someone, somewhere, a player has a " babe" waiting, who insists on going to a club tonight.
Tyler Wade has a dentist appointment at 6pm in Manhattan.
In any case, a great question during these " dog days of distorted anticipation."
"You can't predict baseball," or so the saying goes.
Sadly, I can.
Unless, of course, I put money on the outcome.
Here is my prediction: The Yankees will have to win with two runs. The game must be: 2-1 or 2-0.
Enough said.
Sorry to hear about your Dad, KD. That's a big loss.
You know who may not be getting enough: Mr. Dellin Betances.
The Who did a song with the lyric: My name is Bill and I'm a headcase.
That could be adapted to My name is Dellin. I'm a headcase.
Wow, I've picked up my first impostor. Gee, I wonder who it could be...
Probably some Red Sock
I think we've got a Russian troll.
But KD, that's not Local Bargain Jerk. That's just a jerk.
It's not LB (No J), either (aka, the flat-headed, slavering cur); I think our troll got us confused last night, too - - he attributed one or two of my comments to LBJ - - and, dammit, LBJ is a fine and creative writer, but I want my rightful piece of the vitriol, too. Perhaps he would like to beatu up on a 71 y/o man. I'll meet him.
I guess our troll thinks that insulting all the regulars on the blog, and especially el duque, in his first post last night is "perfectly reasonable"...somehow, he seems only to be animated & creative when spewing bilious chunks.
Sorry for your loss, KD; I have felt that kind of pain, and wouldn't wish it on even our troll...well, maaaay-be...
At any rate, duque, I share your jitters, re: Tuesday's blowout/fiasco - - but, as the troll might say, tsk, tsk, you bunch of Village Idiots - - 28 is a SMALL SAMPLE-SIZE, not even approaching infinity. Booga Booga! LB (No J)
LBJ--you're your own impostor. You pose as a human being, but you're just a frustrated, cowardly, anger-addled little punk, probably with a very small penis. Any time you want to have a discussion in person, punk, just say the word.
Hey el duque--we're all touched by your selective indignation. If you stood up to chronic flame addicts like LBJ when they first pop up, even though they're your buddies, your wounded sensibility would carry a bit more weight.
Hey, Anonymous, take a chill pill and relax. You come on board and flame everyone and then get your knickers in a knot when they fight back. Stop being a child and join the conversation. You make some great points and maybe you could teach us a few things. But if you think people aren't going to respond, well, I think you're just being Asshole Tom.
Hey Parson Tom--go fuck yourself. You have this exactly backwards. I posted a couple of very courteous, matter-of-fact items on sacrifice-bunt probabilities, and the LBJ and other assorted thugs descended on me with their inimitable Blutarsky Animal House commentary--so I responded in kind. You have this scenario so far backwards that it's obvious that you are opinning from pack-animal rooting interest rather than any sincere interest in fair judgment. You're just another preadolescent howler in the pack, relishing your turn in the pile-on--a herd animal without a scintilla of real conscience or judgment. As I said--go fuck yourself, asshole and save your sermons for your fellow Village Idiots, who might be impressed. I think you ought to think about graduating from the seventh grade.
opining--typo
Hey Anonymous I have to respond to you Ted Williams straw man argument from last night.
No one has ever made the case that Jerry Lumpe was a better hitter than Ted Williams so don't try to pass that one by as a reason for stats being superior. Our eyes and statistics both backed that up. Furthermore Batting Avg is an old man stat than everyone loves and respects, ironically except the saber-metrics guys.
Girardi is an ass who makes a critical mistake at the very least once a week. Why was Jonathan Holder in last night in a 1 run game? Because Joe inexplicably used the top guys the day before in a 5 run game to "get them work" seemingly oblivious to the fact there were more games to play. He works strictly by the binders, which is chock full of meaningless stats. How many games did Clippard, Betances, and Chapman blow this year and how many of those games did the world know they were struggling, but Joe put them in because Joe works by the binders and not on instinct or gut feelings?
Why are Maddon and Francona constantly held aloft as the best managers in the game? Mainly because they always seem to know the right button to push. The guys calling the game always say "why is he doing this" and these decisions work out and they look like geniuses. Why couldn't Torre's Yankees amount to anything after Zimmer left? Torre was rigid and by the book, Zim used to formulate his lineups based on which way the wind was blowing.
Now don't go and pretend I'm saying that someone like Matt Harvey is better than Kershaw due to arbitrary reasons, because that'd be a pretty disingenuous way of replying. And I must repeat what John always says when something goes awry "You can throw the stats out the window, you can't predict baseball."
As far as the Yankees are concerned, the only difference between bunting and not bunting is whether or not they plan to strand the runner at 1st or 2nd, so why bother?
Leinstery--your post is an incoherent mess of a red herring. No one has tried to quantify managerial performance. I have no idea what you're talking about, and neither do you.
As for Williams and Lumpe--people on this blog CONSTANTLY deride valid forms of quantification, opposing them with nothing but, "I watch the games." This arose in response to my posting of a run-expectancy chart that shatters their cherished illusion that there is some value to sacrifice bunting. My point is that if you're going to disown statistics in general, then you end up in the absurdity of denying the obvious just because it clashes with your subjective preferences. This is close to psychosis.
And what do you call the disease you're suffering from?
You know very well that my point was stats aren't everything. Don't dismiss is so flippantly.
Girardi is all stats and no feel for the game. Thus he is constantly creating a new disaster because the books told him to do something rather go off his gut. Yet somehow people came up with a stat saying he's actually really good at managing a bullpen, something no Yankee fan would agree with. This was my point last night and earlier.
I do agree that bunting is totally useless for these Yankees. But what do you suggest they do when the bats are cold? Keep swinging for the fences and hope they don't strikeout or pop out? That's basically everyone's point.
"The bats are cold." That's too subjective for my taste. That can vary from game to game or inning to inning. It's never smart to ask someone like Gregorius or Sanchez to bunt, under any circumstances. Having those guys give away an out when there's such a high likelihood of their getting on base of getting an XBH is just counterproductive.
If look at the link I posted for the run expectancy table, you'll find that sacrifice bunting is a losing strategy under nearly all circumstances--provably so. THAT is the point.
Girardi is not just a "book" manager. In fact, he's not enough of a book manager.But he's pretty good. He does fixate on matchups based on very small sample sizes, which is questionable.
One interesting way of using analytics to rate managers is through the use of "Pythagorean" standings. This is a calculation that projects what a teams won-loss record SHOULD be given the run differential between it and competing teams. By this measure, the Yankees should have won 98 games this year--but so far have won only 89. So if you want to put this shortfall at Girardi's doorstep, that makes sense. I don't see where else you would place the responsibility. See the following:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml
Anyway--thanks for a serious, thoughtful reply.
In fact, Leinstery, now that I look at it, I see that the Yankees have the worst negative Pythagorean vs. actual record differential in both leagues. That does not reflect well on Girardi.
Right. Given their ruin differential, hitting and pitching performance, they should have six to eight more wins, according to Pythagorus. Its that a function of the manager's performance or just a random variation that can occur when humans don't match the predictive value of statistics?
Idiot Tom checks in again just to verify his stupidity--quite unnecessarily, we can assure you, Tom.
Since you can't seem to count, the Yankees should have exactly NINE more wins. Did you even bother to look at the chart? And, MORON, this is not a predictive tool but a contemporaneous measurement of how a team should be doing given the run differential between it and other teams. It doesn't claim to be hard, infallible science--it's a yardstick, a tool.
And you're a malicious, stupid dick looking for a fight. So fuck off.
I can't wait for el duque to check in, wringing his hands over your scummy little provocation in the midst of an otherwise friendly, courteous exchange. duque?
For anyone with a functioning brain who is sincerely interested in this topic, and not simply looking for an excuse to vent churning animosities that would probably be better directed to his mother (did she beat you, Tommy?), here's an explanation of the Pythagorean formula from baseball-reference.com:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Pythagorean_Theorem_of_Baseball
" many sabermetrics advocates believe the deviations are the result of luck and random chance."
You might have taken the time to do some reading on this before sticking your shrunken head into the discussion, Tommy. I personally think that managerial skills are a factor here, but I have no way of proving it. I've seen repeatedly that gifted managers beat the Pythagorean win total more consistently than those with mediocre reputations. But even that is not consistent--Showalter beat it by ll wins in 2012, but is only plus two this year. And so on.
I'm taking my shrunken head to bed. Let's go another round tomorrow. Thanks!
Yeah--and thanks for being a psychotically contentious jerk.
It does get tense around playoff time.
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