Friday, December 20, 2024

Even if the Yankees sign Anthony Santander, simple numbers reveal the overwhelming loss of Juan Soto

For whatever it's worth, whispered bleats about Anthony Santander joining the Yankees seemed to cool yesterday. Might be a calm before the signing. Or maybe the rumors were a head-fake. 

Santander remains the bull-goose slugger in the free agent auction barn, mostly due to one stat: Home Runs. Last year, he hit 44 - including four against the Yankees. (Note: We weren't Santander's biggest victim. Toronto gave up six.) 

The switch-hitting Santander does whack HRs. Last year - his best season, by far - in the clutch offensive category called "Late and Close," he hit 12 HRs and batted .290. Not bad. (By comparison, Soto hit 5, but batted - gulp - .343.) Overall, Santander hit 24 solo shots. (Same as Soto.) If you simply look at HRs, he's Reggie. Dig deeper, and you wonder. 

The more we ponder the possible tandem of Cody Bellinger and Santander, the more we must appreciate the challenge of replacing Soto.

Let's compare two pairs - coming and going? - from last year.

Bellinger                  Gleyber &
& Santander            Soto
AB: 1111                       AB: 1163 
H: 277                         H: 317
HR: 62                        HR: 56
RBI: 180                     RBI: 172
SB: 11                           SB: 11
BB: 103                        BB: 194
BA: .249                      BA: .272
OBP: .308                   BA: .365

Conclusion: Even if we add Santander, we are fucking fucked...

Santander and Bellinger will draw about half the walks that Gleyber and Soto contributed. Remember all those 14-pitch at-bats, when Soto fouls off five breaking balls, glares at the mound, between smiles at the ump - eventually drawing a walk that emulsifies the pitcher? They're gone. Neither Santander nor Bellinger have the chops to replace Soto's On Base Percentage, even when his numbers are diluted with Gleyber's. (Who Late and Close hit 2 HRs and batted .241. And for the record, Bellinger in the same category: 2 HRs, .343.)

The moral? To even begin to replace Soto, the Yankees must add two (2) major hitters. One could be Santander - or an entirely different hitter. Let's not obsess over his 44 HRs. The Yankees need a grinder - a Youkilis, a Brett Gardner - a guy who draws walks and flusters pitchers. Yeah, HRs are nice. But we should have plenty in 2025. We need somebody on base, and I'm not sure that's Santander. 

21 comments:

Pocono Steve said...

Loose chatter seems to indicate that Yanks are done with meaningful moves:

https://www.threads.net/@fireside.yankees/post/DDyXCPkO0_t

https://www.threads.net/@fireside.yankees/post/DDwz4IduUDo

Five through nine, and if we're lucky, six through nine will be a dead zone of nine-hole hitters. Yet another 2020s-kind-of Yankees team laden with unwatchable nice-guy Rougned Verdugo-Falafels brimming with impotent can-do spirit. I'm with Keefe in refusing to watch if this is the best they can do.

13bit said...

I love homers. This is the Yankees, after all, and I am a Yankee fan. There, I said it. THAT BEING SAID, THOUGH, until we learn to play small ball again, those FU FU FU FUNDMENTALS, we will never win another thing. Homers only mean something when you have men on base. Or, since this is 2024, "people" on base.

BTR999 said...

It’s a skill set the departed Durbin might have provided. Which circles back to the question, who is the leadoff hitter here? Volpe? Chisolm?

Tough to see where Satander fits into the lineup, at least until Dominguez flames out or Stanton goes on his annual summer vacation.

We can’t be done making moves. The next few might be underwhelming but they have to be coming.

Carl J. Weitz said...

Look at the other side of the coin. Defensively, both Soto and Torres are horrible. Looking at runs prevented and fielding chances/errors online, it's scary how many players are below average. There are surprises too. I always thought Benintendi was a very good defensive player but he was at -7. So was the Mets new heralded star at third, Mark Vientos. By comparison, Soto was -5. Pete Alonzo-9. People rave about the potential of C. J. Abrams but he led all of MLB @ -17. Bellinger was at 0. Jizz Chasm was high at +9 (and he was out of position) and Christian Walker near the top @ +12.
At 3B, both Arenado and Bregman were the top 2. If the Yankees stated intention is run prevention, they would do well by signing Walker, and either Bregman or Arenado although the latter would be a much shorter term deal and preferable. Moving Chisolm to second would be a super upgrade at 2B.

BTR999 said...

My Aunt Alma would be a super upgrade at 2B too. Doesn’t seem to be much of a market for Torres yet, does that open the door to his returning here (gulp!) on a pillow contract? There is a big slice of the fan base that would be perfectly OK with that.

ranger_lp said...

The A's got Urshela which would have been a good pickup IMO...

HoraceClarke66 said...

Gotta disagree with you, Carl J. Weitz. As you guys know, I've hated "Plan B" from the get-go. But if we're going with it, I want the real thing—and not Plan C, D, E, or F.

Nolan Arenado will be 34 next April, he has been in serious decline at the plate for the last two seasons (OBP down from .891 to .719) and he would require a trade to bring on his contract, under which we would pay him $74 mill through 2027. I say, NO NO NO NO.

Bregman, who I'm not crazy about, either, and whose numbers have dropped, too, but not nearly as much (.819-.768), is "only" 30 and won a Gold Glove last year. And...he won't require anything but Hal's money...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...First base is a little closer, as both "candidates" are free agents. But while Christian Walker will be 34 by next Opening Day, Pete Alonso just turned 30. And I don't particularly care if Walker is the better fielder at a position where fielding matters least of all. I would prefer Alonso, who has the potential to put up some huge power numbers, at least...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...Now as Carl writes, run prevention is very important. But to me, that means first, pitching pitching pitching. Get Tanner Scott, get as many good bullpen arms as you can scrounge up and, yes, sign Burnes, which would then give you a starter or two to trade for something good. Though chances are, that bird flew away when the Yanks declined to give up Gil for Kyle Tucker...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...Chances are, though, that Pocono Steve is right, and the Yanks are done for the off-season, and will try to fill in their many remaining holes with the usual dumpster dives...

HoraceClarke66 said...

...My frustration through all of this—for those of you who may not have been awake for my ravings to Doug and Carl and others early this morning—is that, no, the Yankees didn't HAVE to sign Juan Soto. But they also didn't HAVE to give up 4 good young pitchers for him, and they don't HAVE to not bother having ANY sort of plan going forward, whether that means hiring real baseball people to build a great farm system, spending and trading to bring in real stars, or anything else.

All evidence is that the Yankees, who have led the majors in profit-taking for years now, will continue to concentrate their efforts on making Yankee Stadium a great getaway for the super-rich, and enhancing the Steinbrenner Family portfolio. And that makes it awfully hard to watch this team.

ranger_lp said...

Something off topic...the thread responses are funny...

https://x.com/DarthEnvy/status/1869844359350509783

Carl J. Weitz said...

On this point, I certainly DO agree with you. The Bloated Front Office and other vital organizational positions have need a serious upgrade for a good 15-20 years. Of course, that isn't a priority with Hal as it is with most other teams-even the perrenial tankers. Even the so-called small-market teams see the value of building a great minor league system and capable instructors. It builds up player collateral and saves them significant money inthe long-term.

By the way, why would Cashman want Tanner Scott when he just re-signed Cloton Brewer? LOL

Carl J. Weitz said...

perenial* needed* I hate autotype!

Carl J. Weitz said...

perennial Damnit!

Carl J. Weitz said...

@ Ranger....is that real? I mean is that a bona-fide Mantle product?
Assuming that it is his submission, do you think he was describing a real event or just being silly? I'd bet Daid Cone read that 30 years ago before he jerked-off in front of a woman in the bullpen at Shea.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Yeah, it's all too real. It's the sort of thing Mickey would write as a joke, particularly when he was in his cups, and somehow never thought might get out.

BTR999 said...

Twitter-verse claiming Walker is about to sign with the asstros, making Bregman available. Your move, Steinscammer…

BTR999 said...

Jack Curry hinting at Goldschmidt

Carl J. Weitz said...

Goldschmidt is past his sell-by date and a below average fielder.

Carl J. Weitz said...

There have been multiple reports saying that the Yankees are done spending money. The Walker contract is reportedly 3 yr/20 per. That should fit into their budget nicely. They'll use the excuse that the cost of losing 2 prospects is why they didn't sign him
, but that would be a crock of shit.