The Statistics of Nothingness

A big factor in Miguel Andujar not winning the Rookie of the Year Award he so richly deserved seems to be one of the great scams of this baseball era:  advanced fielding statistics.

Sure, El Matador wasn't getting the award if the baseball writers of America could possibly help it, because he plays for the New York Yankees.  But it was the fielding "statistics" that gave the Knights of the Press Box the intellectual armor to hide behind.

Supposedly, Miggy ranked 120th of the 124 regular fielders in the AL, according to an entity known as Ultimate Fan Zone Graphs, or some such nonsense.  His flubs at third cost the Yankees, we are assured, a total of 16 runs on the season.

Trouble is, to paraphase Joe Welch during the Army-McCarthy hearings, this is an image of exactly nothing.

Literally nothing.  Unlike every other baseball stat—unlike every other sports stat—the new fielding statistics promise to measure what DIDN'T happen.

It's the same sort of nonsense that led to otherwise intelligent people telling us that Derek Jeter was "the worst shortstop of all time" in the field.

Miguel Andujar committed 15 errors at third base last year.  Not great, but not horrible.  Not as bad as, say, the 23 errors that Chase Headley committed at third in 2015.

But hold on.  Headley got a -0.3 defensive WAR (another dubious stat) from the experts for that.  Andujar?  A -2.2.

In other words, El Matador was over seven times worse a fielder than Headley according to the new geniuses of sabremetrics, than Headley was, despite making over one-third fewer errors.

How is that possible?

Why, because of the unseen world, of course!

The Ultimate Fan Graph Big Head Super Heroes claim to be able to calculate:

—How many balls Miguel Andujar SHOULD have got to, and

—How many runs his failure to catch up to said number of theoretical balls cost us.

There may be more things in heaven and earth than are dreamed of in Horatio's philosophy—but not for your average sabremetrician!

They KNOW that Andujar's actual errors were his fault, and not that of the bandy-legged stumble bum the Yankees chose to put on first base for most of the season.

They KNOW that the balls Andujar didn't get to were his fault, and not where his manager positioned him.

They KNOW that all those theoretical balls were Andujar's fault, and not where the Yankees might have positioned his slick-fielding shortstop partner, Sir Didi.

They KNOW exactly how the Yankees' pitchers were pitching—apparently, exactly like every other staff in major-league baseball—so that the theoretical balls Miggy missed were his fault, and not due to how hard said balls were hit, or where they were aimed in the first place.

They KNOW that those theoretical balls missed cost the Yankees exactly 16 runs (only one every 10 games, really).

They KNOW that none of the balls Andujar did not get to came in meaningful situations, and not when the team was up or down by 16-1, in the eighth inning of an afternoon game.

They know all these things that didn't happen, just from their statistics, without having to review ten seconds of actual play.

You know what's more?  They also KNOW that Miggy's greatest, reality-based accomplishment—his 97 RBI—DOESN'T matter.

They KNOW that runs batted in depend wholly on how many runners are on base, not the individual batter's worth.

They KNOW there is no such thing as clutch (even though they spend so much time compiling stats for things like hits with runners in scoring position, or hits with two outs, or when it is "late and close.")

They KNOW, just like our genius manager and GM that the great Neil Walker was just as likely to drive in runs against Boston in our last game of the year as Andujar was.

It's amazing what they know.

Donald Rumsfeld with his known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns had nothing on these guys.   Nor did medieval theologians, calculating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

Our sabremetrical geniuses are wasted in baseball.  They ought to go into predicting the future, or maybe performing magic acts in Vegas.

Oh, the things that they know!