Friday, October 21, 2016

Twenty eighteen... the year that matters

I hate to say it, but - unless Hal turns into Cher on buying free agents - 2017 looks like a tax write-off. Without a 2009-esque splurge - that is, we sign the likes of Encarnacion, Rich Hill and El Chapo - the Evils next year should again trend near .500 and probably jusssssssst miss yet another Wild Card.

See for yourself. Without a large-scale Hal Mary money infusion, we must improve by trading Gardner and McCann - and/or the youth we spotlighted in July. Right now, here's the lineup.

c Gary Sanchez
lb Greg Bird, Tyler Austin or TBA.
2b Starlin Castro
ss Didi Gregorius
3b Chase Headley or TBA.
cf Ellsbury
lf Hicks, Mason Williams or TBA.
rf Aaron Judge or TBA
dh TBA or TBA-2

sp  Tanaka, CC, Pineda, Cessa, Green, Mitchell, Severino, TBA
rp  Betances, Warren, Clippard, TBA, TBA, TBA.

Without a blast of new free agents - would just one matter? - we're depending on Sanchez, Bird, Judge, Severino, Cessa and Green to come up big next year. It's naive to think they'll all make it. The thing about prospects: They break your heart. We must also avoid major injuries, and when does that ever happen? Finally, Brian Cashman must make lop-sided deals - near bank robberies of other teams - and the cherry on top must be that Boston somehow tanks. What are the odds?

So... the prevailing strategy of every off-season move must be to think about 2018. By then, the verdict will be in on Sanchez, Bird, Williams, Judge, Austin, Severino, Cessa and Green - not to mention Aaron Hicks and - the absolute last chance - Pineda. By then, Clint Frazier, Jorge Mateo, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Justus Sheffield, James Kaprielian and Dominic Acevedo should be ready. A talent wave should be cresting. By 2019 - unless we blow it - the Yankees could be the Cubs of the AL.

So what do we do about Boston? One thing would be to keep them from getting Edwin Encarnacion - which would seemingly guarantee them the 2017 AL East. But if they beat us in a price war, they probably have to sign him for five to seven years. That's Ellsburian in scope. In 2019, he will be 36, along with Pedroia. David Price will be 34, and Hanley Ramirez will be 35. Of course, Betts, Bradley, Benintendi and Bogaerts will be in their primes. That year, the Yanks and Redsocks could be the powerhouses of the AL... maybe all of baseball. Think of it: A new rivalry, with the upstart Yankees seeking to dethrone the veteran Socks? The Bronx would come alive again... because - really - it's been dead and dying now for four years.

Listen: There is a future for the Yankees. Trouble is, it's two years away. We must be patient. And most of all, we mustn't blow it by trading away the hopes of 2018 for a quick and likely meaningless fix.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

THE NAME AARON HICKS IS JUST DAMAGING MY EYE BALLS EVERY TIME I SEE IT.....HE JUST DOESN'T BELONG.....AFTER HIS SHIT 2016 SEASON (327 AT BATS- .217 AVE.- 8 HR- 31 RBI .617 OPS- AND ONLY 3 STOLEN BASES)- ARE WE DOPEY ENOUGH TO WASTE A ROSTER SPOT ON HIM ANOTHER WHOLE, LONG SEASON??? .............. JUST IMAGINE IF WE GAVE ALL 327 OF HIS AT BATS LAST SEASON, TO TYLER AUSTIN, AARON JUDGE, OR EVEN ROB REFSNYDER......AUSTIN HAD AT LEAST 3 GAME CHANGING HOMERS FROM WHAT I REMEMBER, IN ONLY 83 AT BATS!.....I BET THOSE 327 AT BATS GIVEN TO OTHERS WOULD INEVITABLY MEAN MORE WINS FOR US IN THE END..................... CASHMAN AND GIRARDI ARE THE ONLY ONES TO BLAME ON TALENT EVALUATION (AND GETTING RESULTS), IN THIS CASE........ LETS SEE HOW LONG THE MISTAKE CONTINUES IN 2017.

Jim Kilker said...

Waiting for 2018 and seeing what the youth can do next year is a good plan.