Tonight we'll get our first full read on the Sonny Gray deal

Tonight, the man who was supposed to save our rotation pitches. Sonny Gray came three months ago in the biggest swap of tomorrow-for-today since the three-way scrum of December 2009, when we dealt Phil Coke, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for the earnest free-swinger, Curtis Granderson. For the next two years, the Yankee-owned media proclaimed the deal as a steal. Then it devolved into a trade that helped all three teams. Today - well - we can debate the trade until dawn, but the Grandyman never did decorate the sunrise and sparkle it with dew. We didn't win a ring. To me, that sums it up. 

Sonny Gray is the latest in the bloodline of "Cashman emerging arms," that is, a parade of 20-something fire-ballers who were expected to become stars in NYC. The line extends back a generation - to Jeff Weaver and Javier Vasquez - and runs up to Nathan Eovaldi - it's the mythical 200-inning, underdeveloped starter who would don pinstripes and becomed Cy Young. Brian Cashman is always looking for that fantasy pitcher, the white buffalo, and this year, he traded the house for Sonny. And tonight - well - we'll find whether it worked.

Maybe, anyway.

Thus far, Sonny has been a middling fourth starter prone to throw up a stinker now and then. He came from Oakland with a 6-5 record and a 3.43 ERA. In 11 Yankee starts, he did worse: 4-7 and 3.72 and seeming to break down at the end. Over his last three regular season starts, he gave up 12 earned runs in 16 innings, drawing home boos. Sonny is 27 and we have him until 2020. As a result, the price tag was heavy.

It's impossible to get a quick read on what the Yankees gave up, because two of the three 22-year-olds - James Kaprielian and Dustin Fowler - are hurt. Kaprielian - the former first-rounder - had been hyped (by the Yankee-owned media) as our best pitching prospect, before he needed Tommy John surgery. He should return to Oakland next summer and could reach the majors by 2019, Sonny's contract year. 

This year, Fowler emerged in Scranton - hitting .293 with 13 HRs and 13 SB - in an overcrowded outfield. But he is primarily remembered for the most painful moment of humanity in the 2017 Yankee season: In his first MLB game, with his family proudly watching from the stands, he slammed into an electrical box along the right field line of Comisky Park - (we should have sued that wretched team) - tearing his knee and causing Joe Girardi to openly weep. Fowler will be back for Oakland next spring. Whenever I see him, for the rest of his career, I will always feel a pang of remorse and a sense of innocence lost. Nobody should go through what he endured. And then, the Yankees traded him. He's not 22 anymore. He's lived a lifetime. 

The third guy was the highly touted and, at times, highly criticized SS-CF prospect Jorge Mateo. I fear he is the most likely to haunt us. For four years, the Yankee-owned media had touted him as the fastest player in our system, a guy likely to steal 50 bases a year. He came up two springs ago and hit a Grapefruit League home run, causing John and Suzyn to go googly over the Yankee future. He made Baseball America's top 30 prospects list. Supposedly, he mouthed off to the front office about not being promoted, and spent the summer of 2016 in the penalty box. This year he turned it around. After finally being promoted to Trenton, Mateo hit .300 with 4 HRs and 11 SB, elevating his status just before the trade. Later, with Oakland's Double A outlet, he hit .292 with 4 HR and 13 SB. (Over the whole season, he swiped 52.) You can't teach speed. He could be with the A's next summer. If he's stealing 50 bases a year, it's going to hurt.

I say all this to remind us that - no matter what happens tonight - it will be years before we get an honest assessment of what the Yankees gave up and received for Sonny Gray. I generally view such deals with horror, because of PTSD over the 1980s, when old George Steinbrenner pushed a series of terrible deals, one after another, of young for old talent. He systematically killed the Yankees for 14 years. Just say the names - Buhner, Drabek, McGee, McGriff, McGregor, ugh - and it's an ice pick to my heart.  

Of course, there is one way to certify a successful Yankee deal: Win the World Series. That's why I didn't mention Chuck Knoblauch. If the 2017 Yankees go all the way - or just reach the Series - long term verdicts will be muted. 

Tonight won't decide everything. When you trade prospects, no matter what happens in the short-term, you are judged over the long haul. We can't predict baseball, Suzyn. But we can predict how the Yankee-owned media will assess the deals: Yankees win, thuh, Yankees win! But tonight will give us a glimpse of the future. It will either be very sunny or very gray.