Saturday, October 26, 2019

In 2020, big Yankee contracts could stuff all hopes for additions

These charts, from Cot's Baseball Contracts - (Slogan: "The Pay's the thing.") - say it all. 

With news that Masahiro Tanaka will undergo minor elbow surgery - (Note: There is no such thing as "minor" elbow surgery) - next year's top three Yankee earners might produce next to nothing. Add Happ, and you've got $87 million potentially down the drain.


As for the Redsocks? They too have major issues, most notably whether David Price, Chris Sales and Nathan Eovaldi can deliver. That's more than $100 million in jeopardy.


And, of course, you're wondering about the Astros. They're actually not so bad off, with players still in their primes... unless Greinke and Verlander crumble.


When you study these charts, the eyes glaze over. But one notion prevails: To win big in 2019, all three teams lashed themselves to players at or approaching their sell-by dates. So the question is not how crafty their GMs can be. It is whether their billionaire owners will pull out their pockets and poor-mouth to the world when the big free agents hit the market. 

That said, I cannot help but sense a looming sea change in the AL East. For three seasons, the Yankees and Redsocks have ruled. From here, it looks like time for Tampa and Toronto to ascend. 

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

JUST SEEING IT ON PAPER, IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES, IS MIND-BOGGLING.

COOP CASHMAN MAY HAVE INKED THE 3 WORST VALUE CONTRACTS IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME!

JACOBY ELLSBURY

GIANCARLO STANTON

AARON HICKS

I KNOW THINGS HAPPEN AND PLAYERS UNDER PERFORM, AND OR, GET HURT.

....BUT THESE 3 CONTRACTS ALONE ARE SO ABOMINABLE THAT IT TRULY IS AMAZING HOW THE OWNER DOESN'T HOLD HIM ACCOUNTABLE.

THE 3 OF THEM NEVER PLAY, AND WHEN THEY DO, THEY ALL LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.

TEAM THESE DISASTROUS DEALS WITH HIS HORRENDOUS PITCHING "PROWESS" AND YOU'VE GOT ONE AWFUL GM.

HAL DOESN'T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH INTO WHAT'S GOING WRONG HERE.

HE DOESN'T GIVE ENOUGH OF A SHIT.

HE DOESN'T REALIZE.

CASHMAN IS COSTING YOU MONEY!

(WITHOUT THE END RESULT WE ALL CRAVE).

DUMP THE FUCKER OR HE WILL COST YOU EVEN MORE....FOR LESS!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Excellent analysis, Duque.

And ALL-CAPS has a point. It's almost hard to blame HAL—at least on spending—when his GM wastes money like this. On the other hand, ALL-CAPS is also right in that the logical correction is to get rid of Cashman!

But then, where is one to find such a dedicated suck-up?

HoraceClarke66 said...

What's interesting, too, is that the other teams at least got some real value for their money.

The Red Sox got their 4th ring in what was then 15 seasons—these days, almost a dynasty.

The Astros have won two pennants and a World Series with Verlander, and may yet take their second World Series in three years.

The Yankees? Well, to quote Charlie Brown at Halloween: "I got a rock."

HoraceClarke66 said...

What was the famous line Branch Rickey said to Ralph Kiner before he traded him? "We can finish last without you"?

Well, the Yanks just proved they can finish first and lose in the playoffs without Stanton. Why is he still here?

(I know, I know: MONEY.)

Anonymous said...


Happy Yankee Thought # 5

While Duque is right that it might be tight in 2020 the overall health of “Salary vs. Luxury Cap” looks good going forward.

Aside from being stuck with Stanton, and I’m an advocate of trading him and paying a large percentage of his contract. (See yesterday’s comments on Hoss’ pretending to be Hal post or my earlier song “50 Ways to Fix the Yankees”), the future looks pretty open.

Jacoby is gone after next season (and they should eat the money in 2020 to free up the 40 man spot)

Happ is gone after 2020 as well. (We still should have signed Cole)

Even if Tanaka is hurt for all of next year (and no one is saying that he is), it’s his final year and they did great on that contract. His arm never fell off, which was a legitimate fear.

If he can’t pitch next year it opens up the possibility that he might cost less should they decide to retain him.

Hicks is just 11 mil a year and while last year was bad it still can play out well. (Even if he keeps getting hurt - not a big investment)

For 2020 the 40 man roster, as currently constructed costs roughly 171.5 Mil. The Luxury Tax penalty kicks in at 208M.

In 2021 they have only 98M committed out of a cap of 210M.

And that's with retaining Voit, Ford, Gleyber, DJ, Urshala, AnDUjar, Sanchez, Judge, Frazier and all the pitchers except Happ and Tanaka. (Don't hold me to this. It's off the top of my head)

As far as 2020 goes:

The arb cases still have to be decided which will bring the $ outlay up considerably but here a quick 31M back.

Do the Stanton trade pay half and get back 14M.

Hope that Chapman opts out: 17M. (But we will need a new closer)

Doug K.

Anonymous said...

I HOPE CHAPMAN OPTS OUT TOO...

IF THAT HAPPENS, KEEP BETANCES (HE SHOULD BE CHEAP AFTER INJURY), AND MAKE BRITTON THE CLOSER.

THERE'S MORE MONEY SAVED FOR YA, HAL.

13bit said...

1. Brian is mentalled wedded - and welded, I might add - to a really primitive, idiot way of assembling a team. Throw huge amounts of money at has-been guys with has-been numbers. It eliminates all flexibility and, when a player inevitably goes south, we are stuck.

2. We are fucked.

3. I don't give a rat's ass about the luxury tax. That's all a load of shit and just a way to justify it when we don't spend money for a good player. If we had won the series, nobody would be complaining about the luxury tax. It's more smoke and mirrors from Food Stamps.

ranger_lp said...

The day Ells contract ends, we should mark that day "Ellsbury Contract Ends Day". We should get everyone on this site together and have a huge party to celebrate the end of the worse contract the NY Yankee history. Spoiler Alert: There will be no plaque in Monument Park to celebrate this day. We should create a planning committee for this.

Anonymous said...

13 Bit,

I agree about the luxury tax. The Yankees spend the lowest percentage of their revenue on salary of any club in baseball. If they were just average they could spend 300 Mil a year and still make out like the bandits they are.

I was looking at it the way they spend and, even with their "rules and limits" they are in a position to acquire players that combined with the current core keep the Yankees competitive and, at minimum in the wild card game/hunt for years.

In other words the Yankees are primed to remain a "competitive product".

Should they use their financial advantage to put the team over the top? Oh hell yes!

Will they? Sadly no, for all of the reasons that we all ascribe to them from being cheap, detached, and more interested in the bottom line to Hal consciously or sub-consciously hating the team for taking Daddy away from him.

Nevertheless the blog post was about the $$ crunch coming next year. Which again, is a bullshit thing and why we are fans of the team but not ownership.

And yes, to your other point, the Yankees are built to be competitive not to win championships. They will win every once in a while but if we expect them to win multiple championships like the old days we are indeed fucked.


Doug K.

Anonymous said...

ranger,

"Ellsbury Contract Ends Day - We should create a planning committee for this."

I like it. Whatever we decide, we should spend a ton of money on it and not show up.

Doug K.

13bit said...

Ranger and Doug, I will head up the official t-shirt committee.

TheWinWarblist said...

My Corbin goes tonight. Strike great Corbin bird! Strike like a great raptor! Fastball to Springer's hamate! Fastball to the Runt's zygomatic arch! Slash and strike! Many first pitch strikes!!



. I wish ill on you Hal. I wish cancer and death on you. A cruel debilitating cancer that deprives you of your ability to "lead" this noble franchise and then takes your life before your time.

JM said...

Can we sign Panda? Can we?

HoraceClarke66 said...

Alas, Warbler, Corin is getting lashed just now.

Doug K., you have put your finger on it exactly: the Yanks have been built to stay competitive, but NOT to win it all. That's a crucial difference.

But here's the rub: stasis in sports—as in most anything—is very difficult to maintain. Frustrating as this year, and most Cashman years, have been, I am not so spoiled a Yankees fan as to say it wasn't fun. Contending every year is all right, at least.

My fear is, as always, "Don't mess with Mr. In-Between." I can very easily see this Yankees team deteriorating, very rapidly. The pitching is already more hole-ridden than Swiss cheese, the injuries are out of control, and several of our supposed stars of tomorrow have crashed and burned instead like Russian satellites.

TheWinWarblist said...

I wish ill on you Hal. I wish cancer and death on you. A cruel debilitating cancer that deprives you of your ability to "lead" this noble franchise and then takes your life before your time.

Unknown said...

Jesus. Wow...:

13bit said...

The Astros can suck my ancient, blue balls. Eat shit and die, Houston.

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