Monday, September 24, 2018

Moneyball Has Wrecked the Team With the Most Money

Anybody have a sense of deja vu watching Didi's hideous, season-ending slide on Saturday?

It could have been an exact replay of The Gleyber wrecking his wrist, sliding across home in some vital RailRiders game last season.

Look, I know that injuries are a part of the game, and they can happen anytime and anywhere.  The Yankees in their long history have had not one but two centerfielders—in two different parks—who seriously injured themselves stepping into sprinkler holes.  They had a manager who ended his season punching out a marshmallow salesman, and Kevin "The Idiot" Brown who ruined our 2004 season punching out a wall.

It happens.

But this now makes two vital players hurt in as many seasons because they don't know how to slide, feet first, across home plate.

But why would they?  Sliding—and running in general—doesn't matter.  Neither does fielding.  Or situational hitting.

This I know, because the Moneyball Bible tells me so.

Rob Neyer, the baseball writer—and now commissioner of a summer college league out west—was in the Paper of Record this weekend, promoting his new book, Power Ball:  Anatomy of a Modern Baseball Game, and kvelling on and on about the New Baseball:

"So much of baseball now, far more than any previous era, is about power.  It's about power hitting, power pitching, and power in the front office as well.  The front office staffs are immensely larger than they were 20 or 30 years ago, with dozens and dozens of more employees, because the money's so much bigger and the data's so much more powerful."

Stop right there.

I can well believe "the money's so much bigger."  The Big Money—the title of a John Dos Passos book, many years ago—is everywhere, and it's what's killing so much of America, and has been for a long time.  Money for its own self, money not from any worthy labor but just money gained through the constant manipulation of money, and the exploitation of those who have the least of it.

I'm also not surprised that a class of bureaucrats has seized an opportunity to multiply itself.  I read somewhere recently that the California university system—once the cheapest, and one of the best higher education systems in the world—has the same number of faculty members it did 40 years ago.  But the number of administrators has increased something like fourfold, until there are now more bureaucrats than teachers.

But I digress (Moi?)

The power, and the money, are also killing the game I love.  You can see it everyday, in every way, getting worse and worse.

The essence of the game of baseball is so incredible that it cannot be just about power.  In every other sport, sure, the fact that human beings are just so much bigger, faster, and more muscled than ever before has inevitably distorted them.

You literally cannot run the old Lombardi sweeps anymore in football, for instance.  The linemen are just too damned big to do it.  In basketball, the players have outgrown the court, and in hockey they have outgrown the ice.  (Soccer remains much the same...because it's soccer.)

But in baseball there always were, and there still remain, ways around the power game.  Someday, if we're lucky, we'll discover that again.

I was thinking, with that one-game play-in in Oakland staring us in the face, about how the old Moneyball A's came up short, again and again and again.

Moneyball, of course, always was more of a book-and-movie pitch than a reality.  The Athletics teams at the turn of the new century really revolved around a great starting pitching staff, and a terrific left side of the infield, including a shortstop who was probably juicing to the gills (and for awhile, a first baseman who was doing the same, as we discovered to our great dismay).

But there was something to be said for it.  People such as Rob Neyer and Billy Beane and many others really did discover many things about the game that should have been obvious all along—things about how much power and getting on base really do matter.

(Well, all right, so Earl Weaver discovered the power part a generation before.  He was Earl Weaver!)

But the dictum that—

—Baserunning doesn't matter

—Fielding doesn't matter

—proved to be, well, a Dictum Disaster.  They do matter.  And they brought the A's down again and again:

2000—A Yankees team that had stumbled all through September, finds itself with its back to the wall, in Oakland for a Game Five in the ALDS.  But Terrence Long, the A's centerfielder, loses a ball in the sun—in his own park—and the Yanks go on to score 5 runs in the first inning, hang on for a 7-5 win, and eventually win the World Series.

But remember:  fielding doesn't matter.

2001—The Flip!  But of course, it wouldn't have mattered where the hell Jeter was or what he did, if Jeremy Giambi had only slid.

Fielding doesn't matter.  Baserunning doesn't matter.

2003—Back-to-back, idiotic mistakes lead to both Eric Byrnes and Erubiel Durazo being tagged out at home plate in Game Three of the ALDS against Boston—Byrnes missing home, then trying to start a fight with Varitek, and Durazo protesting before he finishes running.  Instead of Oakland sweeping the series, they lose in 11, then drop the whole shebang thanks in part to another idiotic blunder on the bases in Game Five.

Baserunning doesn't matter.

Fundamentals DO matter.  Knowing how to play the game—not just the power game—matters.  When you don't know how to do that, you get hurt.  In more ways than one.











48 comments:

Alphonso said...

That is the coaching I received as a young Yankee aspirant.

See where it got me?

But I still agree with it.

Nice piece there Hoss.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Thanks, Alphonso!

And now, back to Hetch-Hetchy (sigh).

KD said...

Hoss, as our resident Troll as repeatedly lectured us, people with a lot more money than us say these things don't matter. and they're smart! and did I mention money? they gots da monies so they must be right. Money is how the Wunderkinds determine credibility. if you have none, you're not worth listening to.

my suggestion after the Yanks score their early runs, only to fall asleep waiting for a dinger from Gary: find a computer game that intrigues you and play it during Yankees "action". Look up if you hear any commotion. Have the DVR running so you can play back any "action" you may have missed. I find this works well for me and will keep doing this until "Modern" baseball kills itself or kills us.

Anonymous said...

Good job Hoss.

KD, That's pretty close to how I do it. At least until the bottom of the seventh.

Doug K.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Thanks KD and DK!

And yeah, I'm all for looking at the game in different ways. Getting on base, power hitting and power pitching—they're all huge.

But all of baseball is situational. All of sports is situational. All of life is situational.

You hit against the shift a few times, they'll take off the shift, and more of those balls that DON'T reach the seats when you pull the ball will fall in. You spoil one close pitch after another, fouling them off—as opposed to "daring to take a called third strike"—you wear down the pitcher and make him more likely to float you a gopher ball, all at the same time.

Even if you're a power pitcher, if you develop another couple of pitches that produce weak grounders and fly balls, you can last—dare I say it??—a full seven innings, OR EVEN NINE, and spare your bullpen.

This ain't rocket science. It's how the game was played for about 150 years.

But...ideologues gonna ideologue, be it baseball or politics.

Anonymous said...

HC66--Why don't you finally read a book on baseball analytics? Where did you come up with the crackpot notion that analytics state that fieling doesn't matter? Can you cite a source for this? No. You just pulled it out of your fog of prejudice and ignorance. Nor does analytics contend in general that baserunning doesn't matter--that's one of your ill-informed misconceptions as well. What it has established--to the point that David Cohen and Ken Singleton regulary report it on their broadcasts--is that BASE-STEALING is counterproductive unless it has an 80 percent or better success rate.

You just spend your days spouting this nonsense, never having really read a single book on the subject. Don't you even embarrass yourself sometimes?

Joe Formerlyof Brooklyn said...


re: The Flip

I remember reading, a while ago, that -- contrary to the originally reported "Jeter Is A Freaking Genius" media read on that play.......THE YANKEES PRACTICED IT.

In other words, the shortstop (Jeter) was SUPPOSED TO BE where Jeter was.

Yes, the "out" call was the younger Giambi's fault for not-sliding. But the relevant stuff to me, based on my read, is:

1. The Yankees PRACTICED fielding plays. Even cut-offs. Just like we did when we were kids. (I can remember a lot of practicing relay plays -- the assumption was the other team was gonna hit it, and we had to fetch it and throw it to the right base and tag 'em out. This actually worked, by the way!).

Question: Do they still do that? Sometimes it does not seem . . .

2. Jeter was not a fielding genius, at least not on the basis of that one play. But: HE WAS WHERE HE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE.

Contrast this with the other day, when there was a tag play at the plate (I can't remember which NYY pitcher made the tag, but the Orioles' player was out) -- and Gary Sanchez was -- uselessly -- standing a few feet in fair territory, his back to the infield, WATCHING. I thought I saw that in the live broadcast, but then they replayed it.....and I was sure.

Sure, good fielding is vital, throwing to the right base is one of the keys to the game, handling the cutoffs with precision always works. Being in the right place also might be important. Being in the right place FACING THE PLAY (and ready to make the play) probably also has some positive valuie.

I'm not sure whether or not Sabrmetrics can measure all of that.

But also: Maybe practicing this stuff might work.

If the 2018 NYYs ARE practicing fielding (a lot of it), it might be time to dump the entire unit. Let all of the players go (to hell). I notice that Gleyber and Miggy are good on tag plays. That maybe redeems them.

I realize we are stuck with GStanton. The reason to get rid of Sanchez is that Stanton has got to play 140 games at DH in 2019. The guy is dangerous in RF.

I'm pretty sure Sanchez can't be redeemed at the catching position, tho. Aren't you?

If they ain't practicing fielding, the way they play is easily explained. AND: If so -- Shame on the manager and his coaches.

FINAL NOTE: My memory of "The Flip" is that it started with Shane Spencer's throw from right field. He threw over the head of the first baseman (the first cut-off man).......which is why Jeter had to make that play the way he did. I believe the team's assignments on such a play put the SS on the pitcher's mound, just in case.

ALSO ALSO: As a sometime-Hater of the Baltimore Orioles, and someone who (living in the DC area) ended up attending a lot of Orioles' games in Bawlmore -- to hate them in person, and to watch live baseball -- I was amazed at the deterioration in that team's fielding prowess. In the 1980s, it seemed they did nothing wrong, which is another way of saying -- they did all of the little things exactly the way I was taught you should do them. Like hitting the cut-off man, making precise relays, picking guys off 2nd base, etc.

By the 1996-7-8 period, when the Yankees were dominant, the Orioles could not get out of their own way. Maybe it is or is not in numbers somewhere, but you could see it on the field with your own eyes.

Fielding matters. A lot.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Interesting post, Joe FOB.

Whether or not the Yankees actually practiced THAT PLAY is a matter of dispute. It seems that the idea they did came from a joking remark Jetes made afterwards.

But what WAS true is that Jeter made up for things like his limited range with tremendous field smarts. He was alert enough to see that play evolving, and reacted perfectly, in just seconds. Similarly, in the World Series against the Mets, he was exactly where he needed to be to grab Justice's throw and nail Timo Perez at the plate with about as great a relay as you'll ever see.

In both cases, Giambi's and Timo's, they would have scored if they had not had their heads in the clouds, no matter what Jeter did.

But that's a huge amount of sports, too: NOT beating yourself.

Those Orioles teams you mention were so strong on fundamentals. They very, very rarely beat themselves with stupid plays or errors. And you're right: by the 1990s, that was all gone.

The sad part of the 2018 Yankees is that they are almost the reincarnation of the 1996 Orioles. An incredible collection of sluggers who play without heart or sustained attention. We ran that team off the field in the ALCS that year—just as the Red Sox will do to us, assuming we make it that far.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Also, Joe FOB, I completely agree that Stanton's collapse at the plate has been dismaying...especially since he can't much run or play the outfield. The idea of ten years of him gives me the shivers.

But...now that Coops has devastated our depth, we are probably going to have to triple down on his disastrous contract, signing on Machado and Harper. At least they are younger and can do more things.

I would love to deal Sanchez, too, but to whom? And for what?

I wonder if it's at all possible that Jeter will see him as a worthwhile rehab job and take him off our hands for Realmuto—that is, if we throw in, say, Sonny Gray, a young reliever or two, and Greg Bird.

Almost certainly a pipe dream. But I could see some real coaches somewhere else rebuilding all those guys, and if they do there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth about how we should never have let them go.

What will be left unsaid is that there was never a chance they would get better here, obviously. Leaving them with the Yanks would be like leaving your broken down Beemer with a Stone Age tribe.

I don't care if they do thrive elsewhere, I just want us to get something for them.

TheWinWarblist said...

Hoss, you are correct about Stanton's contract, but I don't care. At least they finally spent some of the mountainous dragon's HOARD OF OUR MONEY ON A DECENT BALLPLAYER! Stanton's legs won't last a full season in the field. It looks like he's sore as hell when he's playing. He's supposed to be a DH, at least most of the time. He's only 28. He'll play until he's 32 or 35 or 38. Who cares. Money is our competitive advantage. THEY SHOULD SPEND A LOT MORE OF OUR MONEY ON DECENT BALLPLAYERS!!!

TheWinWarblist said...

I've been thinking about what we've all said here. I have an analogous experience from my medical training. The people who trained me were good at that: training people to be full complete young doctors. They gave us the toolset to do our jobs. And then there was a movement towards Evidence Based Medicine. Which was great. A lot of medicine was dogmatic and not based in the science of medicine. More evidence based knowledge was supposed to make better doctors. But some institutions cut back on the actual core training of the basic toolset. So they began producing more knowledgeable young doctors who lacked the experience of physical diagnosis and patient care and thoughtfulness and compassion. It's not enough to have a thorough differential diagnosis if you can't go first to third or beat the shift or field your position or foul off a tough pitch.

So to speak.

TheWinWarblist said...

Deep knowledge can co-exist with shallow understanding.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

WTF. A bullpen game???????

Rufus T. Firefly said...

I guess Sasha Gray is definitely off the postseason roster.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Supposedly, he's coming in later. But I know, Rufus: we are now imitating the Tampa Bay Rays.

I swear, if the age of "the opener" is upon us, that really is it for me. The modern power game is excruciating to watch as is. A game without starters? I'd just as soon stock up on old Yankees tapes.

HoraceClarke66 said...

Oh, I'm all for them spending money, Warbler. It's just that they've so stacked the thing now, I believe, that being over the cap another year would've started to cost us draft picks, too.

You make some interesting points about fundamentals. It's not that I JUST value fundamentals. For instance, 75 years or so ago, almost every player would've know at least the rudiments of how to bunt, steal, hit-and-run, hit the other way, etc., when they came up, just because they generally had to spend a longer time climbing through the farm system, and waiting for a spot to open on one of just 16 teams.

Would I rather see certain, extraordinary talents come up earlier than that, so we get to see more of their careers? Absolutely. But then, the majors has to be an ongoing instructional process.

For the money these guys are getting, there is no reason they cannot be constantly learning and developing. Unfortunately, "the power game" actively discourages this.

HoraceClarke66 said...

So, the two best hitters on the team—El Matador and El Conquistador—just singled to get on base, then advanced to second and third on a wild pitch.

Wow, we're really set up for our No. 3 & 4 hitters, right?

Uh, no. They were batting 6 & 7, and so got to stand there while ICS struck out on a pitch five feet out of the strike zone.

Boy, this New Baseball stuff is just like magic!

TheWinWarblist said...

IT'S TARPLEY!!!

TheWinWarblist said...

GO STEPHEN GO !!!

ranger_lp said...

Start getting used to bullpen games...the future is now...

Austria's Only Baseball Fan said...

How the fuck are they deciding who’s gonna pitch? Drawing names from a Redstockings cap? Is there some, uh… logic behind this? How long do we have to wait to see Cole on the mound?

TheWinWarblist said...

Gary, you fully loaded turdlet.

TheWinWarblist said...

I believe they should decide who pitches by slamming Gary Sanchez' scrotum in a car door and then seeing what pattern the blood and vomit take. Reading of entrails is a vanishing art, but I bet there's some hipster douchebag in Brooklyn who's doing it if we can't get an actual Aztec.

Austria's Only Baseball Fan said...

Generous Sunny, always giving. Is that Gitchegumee warming up? Or Megissogwon (a/k/a “The Magician”)? Or did I mistake him for Nokomis, pointing with his finger westward? I guess we are resolved to playing one-season-in-one-night by the black pitch-waters stretching far away beyond them to the purple clouds of sunset. If only Puggawaugun will take his war-club!

Rufus T. Firefly said...

TWW,

I must take exception to one particular point in your post.

Hipster douchebag is redundant. Sorta like asshole red sockian fan.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

Third out at third.

Sheesh!

TheWinWarblist said...

I love you Rufus. You complete me. I actually hesitated before adding "douchebag" for that very reason. I'd much rather have an actual Aztec. Front office already has a sufficient, and then some, compliment of douchebags.

Rufus T. Firefly said...

It's just lust...

TheWinWarblist said...

Perhaps ... but at our age ?

Rufus T. Firefly said...

If you believe that I am actually the guy in my avatar, I'm 118 years old -- a teenager!

TheWinWarblist said...

Please, I'm so old that I and dirt are on a first name basis.

TheWinWarblist said...

La la la. Ahem ahem ahem.

Austria's Only Baseball Fan said...

You may be ancient, but you can still warble with the nest of 'em, so get ready...

TheWinWarblist said...

That was quite odd BUT I WILL TAKE IT!!! DAMN YOU ICS, YOU LOADED TURD!!! AHH! AHHH!!! Aha-ah-haaaaa!! HaaHaahahahahaaaaaHHHHaaaahhhh!!
AAaAhhaaaa-haha-haaa-hhhhhHHHaaaaaaa-HHHHHaaaaAAHHHHHHHHHHHaaaa-ah-ah-ah-aaaaaaaaAaAaHaHaHaaHaHAA-HAAAAhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!

Austria's Only Baseball Fan said...

This game and obviously necessary online interchange have provided a bit of a learning experience (aside from the debate over the proper usage of douchebaggery). All of our pitchers who tossed only one inning allowed no runs, BUT the one and only pitcher who was given two innings (Soon-yi Gray) give up the sole run. And this really is beyond my foggy relationship with rules, he was credited with the win!

HoraceClarke66 said...

Yep. One of the many inanities we have to look forward to in the days of the non-starter to come.

And Hicks injured. Another day, another invaluable player for the postseason lost. Man. The Hindenburg had nothing on this team.

HoraceClarke66 said...

So ICS today was what? 0-4 with 2 Ks and 5 men left on base, two passed balls, and a wild pitch allowed.

He is now at .180, the rarely approached Sub-Mendoza Line, and I think has 1 hit in his last 10 games.

Wow.

I have never seen a Yankees starting catcher play as bad as ICS has since coming back from he DL. And I'm old enough to have watched Jake Gibbs play an entire season and hit 7 doubles and 4 homers.

Local Bargain Jerk said...


HC66:

Why don't you finally read a book?  Analytics have always stated that Sonny Gray sits down to pee.  Do I need to cite a source for this?  No.  I'm just disengorging myself into the maw of everyone else's fog of prejudice and ignorance.

Analytics do not contend in general (or in specific) that cheese fries don't matter -- that's just one of your ill-informed misconceptions as well.  What analytics (no antecedent issues) have established -- to the point that David Cohen and Ken Singleton regularly report it on their broadcasts -- is that a set of shapely, majestic breasts have an 80 percent or better chance of making a grown man's knees buckle ... even in church.

So, I'll just sit here in my mom's basement spouting this nonsense, never having really read a single book on the subject.  I must admit I embarrass even myself sometimes.

13bit said...

That was beautiful, LBJ.

HoraceClarke66 said...

That was pretty funny, LBJ!

Actually, when I think about it, I start to get a little nervous about ICS. Could he be having some kind of bigger breakdown? A brain tumor?

I'm serious. A decline this precipitous so early in his career is a little spooky.

KD said...

despite the moniker, i'm not sure if that's a WW or an orgasmic scream.

KD said...

I've had quite enough. I don't expect ICS to be around next year. he's obviously not a NYY. anyone else looking forward to the Hot Stove this winter? we have some holes to fill and ICS might be tempting as a reclamation project in exchange for a decent mascot, at least. But, PLEASE! ONLY to the NL!! (looking at you, San Diego....)

KD said...

LBJ, Hoss doesn't read books... He writes them!

Local Bargain Jerk said...


The problem with ICS is that he's pulled off the Interstate -- i.e., I-180 -- and he's coasting along a meandering, one-lane country road. If the Mendoza line is .200, I think we should christen a BA of .150 as "the Ice Cream Sanchez line".


TheWinWarblist said...

LBJ, you are a genius. Spake it Sibling, spake it!

The brain tumor reference is chilling to me. I had a benign brain tumor removed some years ago around the same time a friend and colleague died of a malignant one. There are no symptoms until suddenly there are. The decline in ICS could be a sign of increased intracranial pressure. It probably isn't, but ... I remember how JR Richard was treated.

HoraceClarke66 said...

KD, San Diego is WAY too nice a fate for ICS. Cincinnati is it. Unless he has that brain tumor, and this is "Bang the Drum Slowly."

And yes, I realize my posts are getting a little long. But "books"? :)

KD said...

Hoss, I imagine you an author in real life. a famous one too!

:-)

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